Arthur Fils, sidelined since his grueling five-set victory over Jaume Munar at Roland Garros due to a stress fracture in his back, is poised to make his comeback at the National Bank Open. The timing of this injury was unfortunate as Fils had been delivering some of his best tennis to date.

His recovery status leaves some uncertainty about his form, but despite this, the potential benefits of backing Fils outweigh the risks compared to the current state of Pablo Carreno Busta. Carreno Busta secured a win recently as an underdog against Challenger-level player Liam Draxl. However, Draxl, despite an impressive 39-13 record in Challengers this year, has yet to claim an ATP-level match victory.

Carreno Busta’s recent performances reflect inconsistency, including a straight-set defeat to Gauthier Onclin at a Lyon Challenger. His ATP tour-level record stands at a concerning 4-9, coupled with a low break percentage of only 15.2%. These factors position Carreno Busta at a disadvantage, especially with his struggles on return games.

Fils, on the other hand, is expected to showcase a strong serving game and athleticism, despite moments where he may not be at full strength. His improvements in return play are notable, with a break rate increased to 23.6%, an area that previously hampered his game.

Their recent encounter in Barcelona saw Fils triumph in straight sets, 7-6 (6), 6-3, on Carreno Busta’s home ground. Given the faster conditions and neutral setting of the National Bank Open, a similar outcome seems plausible. This analysis supports laying 3.5 games with the 21-year-old Frenchman as a confident pick for this match.

Holger Rune began his US Open lead-up at the National Bank Open in Toronto with a solid win over Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, claiming a 7-6(7), 6-3 victory. The fifth seed traded a tightly contested first set with Perricard before breaking serve in the second to close out the match in one hour and 15 minutes on Center Court.

Rune’s win was a measure of redemption after losing to the French big-hitter in Basel last season. Returning to competitive hard-court tennis after a first-round Wimbledon defeat, Rune had also recently started training with Andre Agassi, describing the partnership as an opportunity for mentoring. “He’s obviously an icon, so everybody knows him, his style and everything,” Rune noted about the collaboration that began before the Mubadala Citi DC Open.

Though a back injury kept Rune from competing in Washington, D.C., he displayed strong form against Perricard, who entered the tournament after defeating Shintaro Mochizuki in his Canadian Open debut and had previously bested Rune in Basel. The opening set featured 12 consecutive holds of serve, culminating in a high-stakes tiebreak in which Rune saved a set point at 7-6 to narrowly secure the set on his second opportunity.

In the second set, Rune secured the decisive break in the fourth game, capitalizing on a string of break points to take a 5-2 lead. Despite some resistance from Perricard, Rune served out the match with poise, finishing with an efficient 23 winners and only 10 unforced errors.

Carlos Alcaraz, at just 22 years old, has reached a significant milestone: his 100th week in the top two of the ATP rankings. This achievement places him as the second-youngest player in ATP history to spend 100 weeks in the top two, trailing only Rafael Nadal, who accomplished the feat at age 21.

Alcaraz has spent 36 weeks at No. 1 and 64 weeks at No. 2. Nadal’s initial 100 weeks in the top two, extending to 160 weeks, were all in the No. 2 position behind Roger Federer. Bjorn Borg reached this milestone at an age slightly older than Alcaraz.

Though Alcaraz is not competing in the Canadian Open this week due to minor muscle issues and the need for physical and mental recovery, his position in the rankings remains strong. He is well ahead of No. 3 Alexander Zverev by 2,570 points in the ATP rankings and leads the ATP Race to Turin by 4,160 points over No. 3 Novak Djokovic.

Alcaraz has expressed regret about missing Toronto, stating, “After many consecutive weeks of competition without rest, I will not be able to play in Toronto this year. I have small muscles issues and I need to recover physically and mentally for what comes next. To the tournament and to my fans in Canada I am very sorry, I will see you…”

Looking forward, Alcaraz has a clear chance to reclaim the No. 1 ranking before the year ends. Although currently 3,430 points behind Jannik Sinner, who has amassed far more points over the same period last year, opportunities arise notably at the US Open. Sinner will defend 2,000 points as the reigning champion, while Alcaraz defends only 50 points, making a leaderboard shift plausible depending on their performances.

Alcaraz is scheduled to return to competition at the Cincinnati Open in two weeks, where Sinner will defend 1,000 points from his title last year, and Alcaraz will defend 10 points from an early exit. The No. 1 ranking may not be decided there, but the season’s remaining tournaments could alter the standings significantly.