Jannik Sinner enters the North American hard-court swing carrying a 23-match unbeaten run on the surface, a sequence that stretches back nearly a year to the 2024 China Open final. His last loss on hard courts came in that final, when Carlos Alcaraz beat him 6-7 (6-8), 6-4, 7-6 (7-3).

The current run began at the Shanghai Masters in October, where Sinner won six matches in a row, including the final against Djokovic. He followed that with an ATP Finals title run, winning five consecutive matches and defeating Taylor Fritz in the final, which took his unbeaten tally to 11. Sinner then closed the 2024 season with three wins at the Davis Cup finals as he helped Italy defend the title, moving the streak to 14. He extended it at the Australian Open with seven wins during his title run on the hard courts of Melbourne Park to reach 21.

Sinner was then banned from February until the start of May due to his two failed doping tests in March 2024 and missed the hard-court Sunshine Double at Indian Wells and Miami. Returning to competition after the clay and grass seasons, he won at Cincinnati, beating Daniel Elahi Galan and then Gabriel Diallo 6-2, 7-6 (8-6) to bring the streak to 23.

Comparisons with the era’s best make clear the scale of the challenge ahead. Roger Federer’s longest hard-court run reached 56 matches, a sequence that began at the 2005 Rotterdam Open and ended at the 2006 Dubai Tennis Championships. Federer also recorded streaks of 36 and 26 on hard courts. Novak Djokovic’s longest hard-court run stretched from December 2010 until August 2011; that period included titles at the Australian Open, Dubai, Indian Wells, Miami and Canada before he lost the Cincinnati Open final to Andy Murray. Djokovic also has hard-court runs of 29, 26 and 23.

Rafael Nadal enjoyed an extended hard-court run from March 2012 until October 2013 with wins at the 2012 Miami Open, Indian Wells, Canada, Cincinnati and the US Open, before losing the China Open final to Djokovic. Murray’s streaks are also noted in recent seasons, with a run in early 2017 ended by Djokovic in the Doha final.

Sinner’s 23-match streak is substantial, but historically it still sits below the benchmark set by Federer and some of Djokovic’s longest runs.

Jannik Sinner’s hold at the top of the ATP Rankings has been underlined not only by Grand Slam trophies but also by an unusually consistent record against lower-ranked opposition. The 23-year-old has spent 61 straight weeks as world No 1 since first reaching the top in June 2024 and has won four Grand Slam titles in the past two seasons.

Despite a three-month doping suspension this spring, Sinner captured Grand Slam crowns in Melbourne and London in 2025 and narrowly missed at Roland Garros, where he was one point from victory in the final. His lead in the rankings stands at 3,440 points over world No 2 Carlos Alcaraz.

A defining thread runs from Sinner’s breakthrough Masters 1000 title at the 2023 Canadian Open through to his recent form. After that Toronto triumph he was upset in Cincinnati by world No 66 Dusan Lajovic. Since that loss, Sinner has collected 12 ATP Tour titles, including four Slams, the 2024 ATP Finals and three more Masters 1000 crowns, among them last year’s Cincinnati Open.

From the 2023 Canadian Open onward he has played 75 matches versus players ranked outside the top 20 and suffered only two defeats: to Lajovic in Cincinnati and to Alexander Bublik at the Halle Open in June. That 73-2 ledger is a 97.33% win rate against opponents ranked 21st or lower.

At Grand Slams the last defeat to a player outside the top 20 came against world No 79 Daniel Altmaier in the second round of the 2023 French Open. Since then Sinner is 51-5 at majors. Across all ATP events he had a 66-match streak of wins against players outside the top 20 before the loss to Bublik, and he has followed that with five wins from five against such opponents, including a very quick win over Daniel Elahi Galan in Cincinnati round two.

Sinner enters his Cincinnati Open round-three match with Gabriel Diallo on Monday night holding an overall 84.06% record (211-40) versus players outside the top 20. Comparisons with contemporaries show narrow gaps: Alcaraz sits on 86.83% across his career, while Sinner’s last 75 matches yield a 73-2 record that stands out for its near immunity to upsets.

Defending champion Aryna Sabalenka is all but certain to headline the 2025 US Open seedings as the field approaches the final ranking cutoff. Thirty-two players will be seeded at the Grand Slam, with positions determined by the WTA Rankings on August 18. The Cincinnati Open is the last opportunity to earn points before that cutoff.

Sabalenka leads the Live Rankings by 3,400 points over Coco Gauff and is therefore assured of the top seed. Gauff and Iga Swiatek remain in direct contention for second seed. “Reigning French Open champion Gauff has the upper hand as the Pole will have to win the tournament to move ahead of the American in the WTA Rankings after the Cincy tournament.” Mirra Andreeva, Jessica Pegula, Madison Keys, Amanda Anisimova, Jasmine Paolini, Elena Rybakina and Emma Navarro complete the current top 10 in the Live Rankings, though all remain active in Ohio and changes are possible.

Injury withdrawals have altered the projected list. World No 7 Zheng Qinwen has withdrawn from the US Open with an elbow injury and No 12 Paula Badosa is out with a back injury. Their absences push players below them up the order and open two places for those currently outside the top 32.

Two players who have risen into near-certainty for a seed are Victoria Mboko and Naomi Osaka, the Canadian Open finalists. “Just a month ago, Mboko was not in the running to be seeded at the US Open as she was outside the top 80 in the rankings, but her fairytale title run at her home WTA 1000 event has resulted in a 61-place surge to No 24 while Osaka is one place behind her after jumping 24 places.” With Zheng and Badosa not playing, Mboko is set to be seeded 22nd and Osaka 23rd, although both are not competing in Cincinnati and the order could still shift.

The final seeding places are hotly contested. Mccartney Kessler (28), Dayana Yastremska (29), Leylah Fernandez (30), Anna Kalinskaya (31) and Emma Raducanu (32) currently occupy the last five projected spots. Fernandez is in particular danger after exiting Cincinnati, and Raducanu faces Sabalenka in the third round in Cincy; a defeat would make her vulnerable if those below pick up wins. There remains the possibility of further withdrawals from the top 30 before the draw is final.

1. Aryna Sabalenka
2. Coco Gauff
3. Iga Swiatek
4. Mirra Andreeva
5. Jessica Pegula
6. Madison Keys
7. Amanda Anisimova
8. Jasmine Paolini
9. Elena Rybakina
10. Emma Navarro
11. Elina Svitolina
12. Karolina Muchova
13. Ekaterina Alexandrova
14. Clara Tauson
15. Belinda Bencic
16. Daria Kasatkina
17. Ludmilla Samsonova
18. Beatriz Haddad Maia
19. Elise Mertens
20. Linda Noskova
21. Diana Shnaider
22. Victoria Mboko
23. Naomi Osaka
24. Sofia Kenin
25. Jeļena Ostapenko
26. Marta Kostyuk
27. Magdalena Frcch
28. Mccartney Kessler
29. Dayana Yastremska
30. Leylah Fernandez
31. Anna Kalinskaya
32. Emma Raducanu