Analytics & Stats ATP Cincinnati Open
Sinner Favored as Qualifier Atmane’s Run Meets Physical Limits in Cincinnati Semi
Sinner looks likely to control the Cincinnati semi while qualifier Atmane faces fatigue and regression.

Terence Atmane has been one of the tournament’s most compelling stories, arriving in Cincinnati as a qualifier and dispatching Flavio Cobolli, Joao Fonseca, Taylor Fritz and Holger Rune to reach the semifinals. The 23-year-old southpaw from outside the top 100 has played fearless tennis, but the numbers and the schedule suggest his run faces a stern test against the world No. 1, Jannik Sinner.
Atmane’s serving this week has been unusually strong: he made at least 59.0% of his first serves in three of his five main-draw matches. That compares with a 57.8% first-serve rate in 2024 and a 57.7% rate so far in 2025. Those figures indicate the current spike could regress, and against Sinner any dip in serve effectiveness will be costly.
Accumulated court time is another clear factor. Atmane has played seven matches in Cincinnati when qualifying and main draw are combined. Given the hot and humid conditions that have characterized the week in Cincinnati, fatigue is a realistic concern. By contrast, Sinner has played only four matches in the event, including two quick wins over Daniel Elahi Galan and Felix Auger Aliassime. The Italian should arrive fresher.
The surface and conditions also favor Sinner. Quicker hard courts accentuate his serve and baseline power, and his pace from the back of the court is likely to impose difficult ball tolerance for Atmane. Sinner does not tend to underestimate opponents, and his style suits shortening points when appropriate.
For bettors looking for a pragmatic approach, the match projects as one-sided. Options that limit total games or that lay games favor Sinner. There is a practical case for expecting a relatively straightforward victory for the top seed.
Pick: Sinner -4.5 Games (-175)
Analytics & Stats ATP US Open
Alcaraz and Sinner set to clear $50m career mark with US Open final payday
US Open winner will pass $50m in career prize money as Alcaraz and Sinner meet in New York final….

Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner arrive at the US Open final with more than a title at stake. Beyond the Grand Slam crown, the winner will vault past the $50m career prize-money mark and become only the sixth player in history to do so.
Prize money on the ATP Tour has climbed rapidly in recent years, and the US Open has led the increases this season. The tournament has boosted payouts across the board: the men’s and women’s singles runner-up prizes rose by 39% and beaten finalists are scheduled to receive $2.5m. The champion’s cheque of roughly $5m will push either Alcaraz or Sinner over the $50m threshold.
That potential milestone comes as the two highest-ranked players on the men’s side continue a dominant run. Between them they have claimed the last seven Grand Slam singles titles. The current leaders on the all-time prize-money list remain Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer, with Andy Murray in fourth, but Alcaraz and Sinner are closing in fast.
Alcaraz has been candid about his priorities. “I love playing tennis. You know, most of the time I don’t think about the money,” said Alcaraz.
“I just play for love or for fun. But you have to be realistic. You have to think that you want to earn money, you know, and that’s it.
“The money in Saudi Arabia is the most, highest prize money ever in history, so that was a good motivation, at least for me.”
Off-court, Alcaraz’s earnings are supplemented by a string of long-standing sponsors including Nike, Rolex, BMW, Babolat, Calvin Klein, Evian and Louis Vuitton. Sinner also benefits from lucrative agreements with Nike, Gucci, Rolex, Lavazza and Head. The draft notes that Sinner served a three-month ban earlier this year after a positive drug test; his commercial deals were not affected.
Whoever lifts the trophy in New York will move up the historical earnings rankings and underline how rapidly prize-money benchmarks are changing in men’s tennis.
All-time prize money winners
1. Novak Djokovic, $188,934,053
2. Rafael Nadal $134,946,100
3. Roger Federer $130,594
4. Andy Murray $64,687,542
5. Alexander Zverev $54,455,659
6. Carlos Alcaraz $48,486,628
7. Daniil Medvedev $46,936,309
8. Jannik Sinner $46,279,987
9. Pete Sampras $43,280,489
10. Stan Wawrinka $37,634,708
Analytics & Stats ATP US Open
Sinner and Alcaraz Renew Rivalry in US Open Final with No 1 at Stake
Sinner and Alcaraz meet in the US Open final; the match decides this season’s world No 1. on Sunday.

The US Open final brings the matchup many expected before the tournament began: Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz meeting for Grand Slam honours. It is the third consecutive major final between the two this season and the first time in the Open Era that the same pair have contested three major finals in a single season. The winner will extend an eight-event stretch in which every Grand Slam has been won by either Sinner or Alcaraz, leaving them three tournaments short of the Federer-Nadal duopoly record.
Beyond the title, the match is a straight shootout for the world No 1 ranking. Sinner, the defending champion, bids to become the first man since Roger Federer in 2008 to defend the US Open. Alcaraz aims to reclaim the trophy he first won in 2022.
Twelve months earlier their US Open fortunes were sharply different. Defying the then-emerging controversy of his failed drug tests from earlier in 2024, world No 1 Sinner stormed to his second major title and his first US Open, collecting 2,000 ranking points. Alcaraz, fresh from winning Wimbledon and the French Open that summer, was stunned in the second round by Botic van de Zandschulp and earned 50 points.
Alcaraz closed the gap on Sinner’s lead at the ATP 1000 event this summer, lifting the title after the Italian retired with illness in the final. That result moved Alcaraz to within 2,000 points of Sinner heading into the US Open and gave him a clear path back to No 1.
Accounting for points to defend from 2024, Alcaraz’s official total of 9,590 fell only to 9,550 once round-one points were guaranteed, while Sinner’s official 11,480 dropped to a live total of 9,490 after removing 1,990. A Sinner victory would leave him on 11,480 with Alcaraz on 10,840. An Alcaraz win would flip the positions: Alcaraz to 11,540 and Sinner to 10,780.
Sinner first reached No 1 in June 2024, replacing Novak Djokovic, and has not relinquished the spot since, accumulating 65 weeks at the top. Alcaraz has spent 36 weeks as world No 1, across four separate spells, and has not held the ranking since September 2023.
Analytics & Stats US Open WTA
Composure and power: what Navratilova and Robson saw in Sabalenka’s US Open defence
Sabalenka used composure and power to retain the US Open; Navratilova and Robson praised her widely.

Aryna Sabalenka retained the US Open title with a straight-sets victory over Amanda Anisimova, a win that carried both a record prize and the weight of earlier near-misses. Sabalenka collected a record-breaking $5m as champion, while Anisimova earned $2.5m after suffering a second successive Grand Slam final defeat following her Wimbledon loss in July.
The final finished 6-3, 7-6 and featured frequent swings of momentum. Sabalenka had fallen short at the Australian Open and French Open finals earlier in the season and had been beaten by Anisimova in the Wimbledon semi-finals, but she converted those near misses into a successful title defence in New York.
Eighteen-time Grand Slam singles champion Martina Navratilova highlighted two defining qualities on display. “For a match that was 6-3, 7-6, there were a lot of momentum changes within the match,” said Navratilova. “Aryna Sabalenka showed just what a champion she is, because she had a lot of pressure on her – she lost finals at the Australian Open and French Open. “Amanda Anisimova has got to keep her head up high. She held her own here today and is now in the conversation at all of the majors. “Sabalenka just had a little bit more firepower and composure. Feeling the pressure, she did not falter. She held her nerve brilliantly in the tiebreaker.”
Former British No 1 Laura Robson, observing courtside, underlined Sabalenka’s ability to regroup after being broken when serving for the match at 5-4 in the second set. “Sitting courtside, it was so fun for me to see Sabalenka regroup when things could have taken a turn in the second set,” said Robson. “She played a blinder of a tiebreak, gave nothing away. “Everything that has happened this year – especially the Roland Garros final, where she mentally let herself down in that match [against Coco Gauff] – it has been something that everyone has reminded her of since then. “Under pressure today, everything on the line, and with the crowd against you, she barely put a foot wrong in that breaker. “That’s the mentality we’ve come to know from Sabalenka, and we saw it in the semi-final as well.”
Robson also voiced sympathy for Anisimova after the loss. “It’s so tough when you see someone breaking down at the same time as someone celebrating,” added Robson. “I’m just in front of Anisimova’s box right now, and they just look so disappointed for her. “They’re trying to get her attention and give her some support but there’s a lot of dejected looks on their faces. “You thought the tide was maybe turning in that second set, Anisimova had more chances as the match went on – which considering how things were going half an hour in, we didn’t expect. “Anisimova has to give herself so much credit for getting stuck in and trying everything.”
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