Analytics & Stats Grand Slam US Open
Has Iga Swiatek overtaken Aryna Sabalenka as the US Open favorite?
Swiatek’s Wimbledon and Cincinnati wins shift momentum; Sabalenka remains No.1 and defending champion
Aryna Sabalenka enters the US Open as the defending champion and has been No. 1 all season. Iga Swiatek, though, arrives on the back of wins at Wimbledon and Cincinnati and a rise back to No. 2, prompting the central question: has momentum shifted?
“They’re the solid favorites. But If I had a choice of roads to the title match, I’d take Iga’s over Aryna’s.”
Sabalenka’s quarter presents multiple hazards. Leylah Fernandez, who beat Sabalenka here in 2021, is a potential third-round opponent. Clara Tauson or Elise Mertens could await in the fourth round. In the quarters she may meet Jasmine Paolini, who made the final in Cincinnati, or Elena Rybakina, who beat Sabalenka on hard courts at the same event.
Swiatek’s section looks more straightforward on paper. Amanda Anisimova is the second-highest seed there; the draw recalls their meeting at Wimbledon. Elina Svitolina and Ekaterina Alexandrova follow, and Swiatek is 8-3 against them combined. The first seed could meet Anna Kalinskaya; Iga beat her in straights in Cincinnati.
Projected semifinals offer contrasting routes. Swiatek could face Coco Gauff or Madison Keys, while Sabalenka is slated to meet either Jessica Pegula or Mirra Andreeva. None of those four are arriving with strong momentum.
Several contenders carry recent concerns. Gauff recently fired her coach and hired a serve-technique expert to help stop her from double-faulting. Andreeva twisted her ankle in Montreal and pulled out of Cincinnati. Pegula, the runner-up here last year, is 2-4 since winning the title in Bad Homburg in June, including a first-round loss at Wimbledon. Keys reached the quarters in Montreal and the fourth round in Cincinnati but has not won a title since the Australian Open.
Other notes from the draw: Clara Tauson has had a solid season and owns a win over Sabalenka; Rybakina has her long-time coach Stefano Vukov back and showed promise in Cincinnati; Paolini had her A-game last week. Naomi Osaka is seeded after reaching the Montreal final and could meet Keys or Karolina Muchova in the fourth round. Amanda Anisimova, the Wimbledon finalist, has a favorable path until a possible quarter against Swiatek.
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Gauff leans into topspin and pace with a simple mantra: trust and accelerate
Gauff trusts more racquet-head speed, using topspin and pace to improve her serve and forehand more.
For nearly the first hour of her second-round match on Friday, Coco Gauff watched Hailey Baptiste play the way Gauff has been trying to play. Baptiste, a longtime junior friend ranked 67 spots behind Gauff and with 11 fewer titles, captured the first set 6-3 by snapping serves into the corners and following them with inside-out forehands struck with pace and heavy topspin.
“She was dictating a lot, especially on her forehand side,” Gauff said of that opening set. “I was just trying my best to neutralize that.”
Gauff’s path back was not to outgun Baptiste in raw power. “I thought I served better in the second and third set, got more first serves in,” she said, and, “Overall I think just trying to put her on the back foot and not me being on the back foot.” She lost the opening set but answered with a 6-0 second set and closed 3-6, 6-0, 6-3.
Gauff entered the match less smooth in certain areas: she hit her serve five m.p.h. slower, produced 12 fewer winners and committed six more double faults than her opponent. Still, she turned it by running, cutting her unforced errors to 22 against Baptiste’s 38, attacking with her backhand and winning 83 percent of her first-serve points. At a tense 30-30 late in the third, she finished a rally with an inside-out forehand winner.
She accepts that the serve and forehand will be inspected and insists progress is gradual. “I think at this point I have the right motion,” Gauff said after beating Baptiste. “I feel like I’m working on the right things. Now it’s just trying to, I guess, erase old demons and actually do it.” “There was moments today I was definitely nervous, and I felt like I’m getting better with each match dealing with that on those pressure moments.”
As one legendary player put it: “Racquet-head speed is your friend.” Gauff has rediscovered that topspin and faster racquet-head speed can coexist. “For me, I just felt like I had to hit flatter to hit bigger,” she says. “I’ve always thought for some reason in my head that hitting shape was more defensive, and I realized that you can be really offensive and aggressive hitting with shape,” says Gauff, using “shape” to mean spin and arc. The biggest change for Gauff in 2026, she says, is “just trusting and accelerating.” She will next face Grand Slam finalist Karolina Muchova, with the potential third-round meeting against Mirra Andreeva awaiting the winner.
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Anisimova Enters WTA Top 3 and Becomes the New American No. 1
Amanda Anisimova rises to No. 3 in the WTA rankings and becomes the top American player. ©Prange2025
Amanda Anisimova rises to a career-high No. 3 in the latest WTA rankings, marking her first appearance inside the Top 3 and establishing her as the top-ranked American player. She moves up from No. 4 while Coco Gauff drops from No. 3 to No. 4, a swap driven by this week’s points adjustments.
There were no tournaments last week, but points from Week 1 of 2025 have dropped off the rankings. Anisimova remains on 6,287 ranking points. Gauff’s total falls from 6,763 to 6,273 after last year’s United Cup results are removed. The net effect places Anisimova ahead of Gauff and makes her the highest-ranked American on either the ATP or WTA lists; Gauff is now the second-highest-ranked American.
Anisimova’s climb carries additional historical notes. She becomes just the third player born in the 2000s to reach the Top 3 in WTA history, and the fifth player born in that decade to achieve a Top 3 ranking across either the WTA or ATP. She is also the 15th American woman to reach the Top 3 since WTA rankings began in 1975. For context, 11 American men have reached the Top 3 since ATP rankings were introduced in 1973.
Other notable ranking changes this week include Linda Noskova moving from No. 13 to a personal best of No. 12. Clara Tauson slips from No. 12 to No. 14; Noskova lost her second match in Brisbane a year ago while Tauson won the Auckland title at the same time last season. Cristina Bucsa makes her Top 50 debut, rising from No. 51 to No. 50. Anastasia Potapova drops from No. 50 to No. 55; Bucsa lost in the first round in Brisbane last year while Potapova reached the third round.
© 2025 Robert Prange
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Hsieh Su-wei at 40: Four decades distilled into 40 defining numbers
Hsieh Su-wei turns 40: 40 milestones from No. 1 doubles weeks to Grand Slam and tour titles. Today!
Hsieh Su-wei celebrates her 40th birthday with a resume few peers can match. A concise selection of career milestones captures the arc of a player who has excelled in doubles, enjoyed late-career singles highlights and returned to the tour with sustained success.
She first reached No. 1 in doubles on May 12, 2014, becoming the first Taiwanese player to reach the top spot in tennis in either women’s or men’s, singles or doubles. She claimed two Grand Slam mixed doubles titles at the Australian Open and Wimbledon in 2024 alongside Jan Zielinski; those were their first and third tournaments together. Her three WTA singles titles came in 2012 (Kuala Lumpur and Guangzhou) and 2018 (Hiroshima).
Hsieh has won Grand Slam women’s doubles titles with four different partners: two with Peng Shuai, and one each with Barbora Strycova, Elise Mertens and Wang Xinyu. She has five Wimbledon titles, including four in women’s doubles (2013 with Peng, 2019 with Strycova, 2021 with Mertens and 2023 with Strycova) and one mixed in 2024 with Zielinski.
Her WTA Finals record features six appearances and a title in 2013 with Peng; she reached the semifinals in 2025 with Jelena Ostapenko. Across Grand Slams she owns seven women’s doubles majors, plus two mixed doubles majors. Indian Wells stands out among her 13 WTA 1000 doubles titles, winning it four times in 2014 (with Peng), 2018 (with Strycova), 2021 and 2014 (with Mertens).
Other highlights: she has 36 doubles wins in 2025 (36-18), 37 career tour-level doubles titles (35 women’s, two mixed), and 40 career tour-level titles overall (three singles, 35 women’s doubles and two mixed). She spent 59 weeks at No. 1 in doubles and is one of only 18 women to log 50 or more weeks at the top. Her Top 10 and Top 15 singles victories mostly arrived in her 30s, including her first Top 10 singles win at Roland Garros in 2017 and a landmark win over reigning No. 1 Simona Halep at Wimbledon in 2018.
Early markers include a perfect 30-0 start below tour level at 15 in 2001 and her first Grand Slam doubles title at Wimbledon in 2013. She retired from singles in 2024 after Miami. Hsieh is the top seed in doubles in Brisbane this week alongside Jelena Ostapenko.
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