Aryna Sabalenka arrives at the US Open as the world No. 1 and a two-time defending champion, yet the conversation around this year’s title has shifted toward other names. While she owns a strong recent record at Flushing Meadows, the balance of opinion is leaning toward Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff.

Sabalenka has been nearly unbeatable in New York over the past three seasons, going 19-1 at the tournament. She lifted the trophy in 2024 and 2025, and in 2023 she finished runner-up to Gauff. But despite appearing in three major finals in 2025, expectations around her dominance have softened.

Her season started strongly. After finishing runner-up to Elena Rybakina at the Australian Open, she put together an excellent Sunshine Double in March by winning both Indian Wells and Miami. Since then, however, her results have dipped. She exited in the quarter-finals at the French Open and in the fourth round at Wimbledon, then opened the North American hard-court swing with round of 16 losses in both Canada and Cincinnati.

During an ESPN media conference call, commentator and former world No 4 Mary Joe Fernandez said: “For the women, Sabalenka is going for a three-peat. She hasn’t reached a final since winning Indian Wells and Miami back-to-back. She struggled a bit winning the big points. She’s lost a couple big leads in some events. So, she’s vulnerable,” she told ESPN.

Fernandez pointed instead to Gauff, saying, “I thought Coco Gauff played exceptional tennis in Cincinnati. She played well in Canada, as well. To me she’s the one that’s playing the best tennis. You have [Jessica] Pegula, [Elena] Rybakina if she’s healthy, who reached the finals in Canada. [Alex] Eala was outstanding in Washington. She beat a lot of top players there.”

Gauff reached the semi-final in Toronto before winning Cincinnati, while Pegula was runner-up in Washington DC and Cincinnati. Rybakina was runner-up to Swiatek in Canada and made the quarter-finals in Ohio before retiring with a leg injury, and Eala won the Citi DC Open.

Swiatek also arrives with momentum after winning Toronto and reaching the semi-finals in Cincinnati. Patrick McEnroe summed up the field by saying: “I would go with Iga Swiatek on the women’s. I think she is [my] favourite. I like the way she’s playing. She is playing with a little bit more margin, not quite as offensive, which I think is actually very good for her. That’s sort of why I’m picking her.

“I don’t think she’s the [overall] favourite. It would probably be Sabalenka. I think Mary Joe is spot on about Coco, in Cincinnati looked great the last couple matches.

“I’m not going to say it’s wide open on the women’s side, but there’s probably six to eight players that could win it.”

Aryna Sabalenka’s control of the WTA No. 1 ranking is now in danger after her Cincinnati Open exit, with Elena Rybakina positioned to move past her.

Sabalenka, a four-time Grand Slam champion, has occupied the top spot for most of the past two seasons. She overtook Iga Swiatek in October 2024 and has remained there for 96 consecutive weeks, bringing her career total at No. 1 to 104 weeks.

Her recent results have been less consistent. After winning both Indian Wells and Miami to complete the Sunshine Double in March, Sabalenka did not produce the same level during the clay swing, with quarter-final losses in Madrid and at the French Open standing as her best results. The grass-court stretch also brought setbacks, beginning with a round-of-16 loss at Wimbledon and followed by another fourth-round defeat at last week’s Canadian Open.

Rybakina has continued to narrow the margin. She arrived in Cincinnati just 354 points behind at No. 2, although the gap had widened to 529 because she is defending 390 points this week, compared with Sabalenka’s 215.

Sabalenka added 120 points by reaching the round of 16, but her run ended there when Sara Bejlek defeated her 7-6 (9-7), 6-4. After the match, Bejlek said, “I feel incredible,” and later added, “I lost totally my words. I just keep believing and that was the key today. She played amazing tennis and I was just believing, keep fighting and I was just trying my best and that’s it.”

Rybakina has already moved into the quarter-finals after a 6-4, 6-4 win over Diana Shnaider. To move ahead of Sabalenka in the next rankings update, she must reach the final at the WTA 1000 event in Mason.

That path is demanding. She next faces Iga Swiatek, who won the Canadian Open last week. Rybakina was beaten in straight sets by Swiatek in Toronto, but if she gets through, either Jessica Pegula or Amanda Anisimova would await in the semi-finals.

The ranking picture could tighten further at the US Open. Sabalenka is the defending champion and will drop 2,000 points at Flushing Meadows, while Rybakina will defend only 240 after her fourth-round exit in 2025.

Alex Eala’s momentum on the WTA Tour is being reflected not only in results, but also in the numbers attached to her season. After capturing her first tour title in Washington and following it with encouraging performances at WTA 1000 events in Montreal and Cincinnati, the Filipina has pushed higher in the rankings and added to her prize money total.

Her rise has made her one of the most discussed players in the women’s game in recent weeks. A win over defending champion Iga Swiatek at Wimbledon sent her into the global spotlight, and her form on North American hard courts suggests that attention will continue as the US Open approaches. Night session appearances in the opening week appear likely for the 21-year-old.

Eala’s run in Cincinnati ended with a narrow loss to 2025 US Open finalist Amanda Anisimova on Monday, but the third-round showing still earned her $47,605. That amount lifted her beyond the $3m mark in career prize money, a notable milestone for a player still early in her professional career.

She remains a long way from the all-time prize money record of $94,932,862. Aryna Sabalenka sits second on $50,341,247, while a six-time Grand Slam champion is third on $46,971,769. Venus Williams is fourth with $43,162,380.

There is also room for Eala to make a substantial move up the earnings list if she performs well at the US Open, where the final major of the year could bring a sizeable payday. Last year’s event set records, with $5m awarded to the champions for the first time in a Grand Slam tournament.

Her profile is already backed by sponsorships with Nike, Globe Telecom, Babolat, Bank of the Philippine Islands, Milo Philippines and Locally Juice, and that list could grow as her results continue to build.