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Can Djokovic Win a 25th Major in 2026? Analysts Weigh the Obstacles

Novak Djokovic enters 2026 chasing a 25th major; Alcaraz and Sinner loom as the main barriers. Period

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Novak Djokovic goes into the 2026 season as a 24-time Grand Slam champion and the central question for the year is whether he can add a 25th major. The consensus among analysts is that the path is narrower than in past seasons, with Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner representing the biggest impediment.

VICTORIA DUVAL: It’s hard to ever count Djokovic out for a 25th major, but the Carlos Alcaraz-Jannik Sinner “Sincaraz” hurdle is huge and Djokovic’s window is narrowing. If he does break Magaret Court’s all-time record in 2026, his best chance is likely at next year’s Australian Open or Wimbledon.

The duo labeled “Sincaraz” dominates the argument. Several analysts note that Djokovic’s route now often requires navigating past one or both of those players late in a major, a tall order at this stage of his career.

COCO VANDEWEGHE: I hate to bet against the GOAT but I am going to have to say no. I think the dominance of Sinner and Alcaraz is just too much to overcome, especially in a best three-out-of-five Grand Slam format. Djokovic made four semifinals in 2025 and lost three of them—in straight sets—to Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz.

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DAVID KANE: On one hand, Novak Djokovic will likely have to beat at least one of Carlos Alcaraz or Jannik Sinner—if not both—to win a 25th Grand Slam title. On the other, Djokovic is still very much the third best player on the ATP Tour, and could have certainly capitalized on a field without them. One need only look at the Rolex Shanghai Masters to remember that things are quite chaotic beneath the Sincaraz duopoly, and it’s certainly possible to imagine a scenario where the draw breaks Djokovic’s way—so long as he continues to create these deep-run opportunities at majors. He may be pushing 40, but Djokovic is at his best when he feels he has something to prove.

BRETT HABER: No. I say this with all conceivable respect for the GOAT, and the fact that he made the semifinals at all four major tournaments this year is beyond laudable, but it’s hard to envision him getting through both Sinner and Alcaraz at the business-end of a major at this stage.

Taken together, the views outline a narrow but plausible set of paths for Djokovic: he must continue reaching the final rounds and, crucially, find a way past the current top contenders when it matters most.

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ATP French Open Grand Slam

Pre-Match Style at Roland Garros: Osaka, Djokovic and the Walk-On Moment

Players turned the walk-on into a runway at Roland Garros, with Osaka’s upcycled couture and Djokovic’s wolf jacket.

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The most talked-about statements at Roland Garros this year arrived before rallies began, as players turned the walk from tunnel to baseline into a deliberate fashion moment. Cameras trained on entrants have made the pre-match entrance one of the tournament’s most visible stages.

Naomi Osaka delivered the tournament’s defining wardrobe story during her run to the fourth round, combining a sequined Nike tennis dress with couture-inspired outer pieces by Swiss designer Kevin Germanier. The creations, built from upcycled Nike garments, included a black beaded jacket, a floor-length skirt and a detachable white tulle train. “If I had to give a short answer, the outfit is a nod to France, to Parisian couture, and sustainability,”

“…The designer that we did end up pairing with just kind of spoke our same language.” Osaka mixed and matched those elements across matches to create a recurring “court-ure” theme.

Novak Djokovic marked his record-tying 22nd Roland Garros appearance with a bespoke Lacoste jacket from creative director Pelagia Kolotouros. The piece, inspired by the colours and textures of the terre-battue, incorporated real clay detailing and featured a prominent wolf graphic across the back, a motif the 24-time Grand Slam champion has long embraced.

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World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka paired a black-and-red Nike dress with prominent accessories from sponsor Material Good, a collection of jewellery that included 23 carats of diamonds and 120 carats of garnets across necklaces and earrings. During Paris’s heat wave cameras captured her pressing a Shark ChillPill personal fan to her face during a changeover.

Coco Gauff followed last year’s leather-jacket moment with two New Balance walk-on looks, each pairing a white bodysuit and mesh-overlay dress in charcoal or pink along with matching headbands and wristbands. Mirra Andreeva and Sorana Cirstea also embraced pink tones. Jannik Sinner appeared in head-to-toe blue from Nike’s 2026 Roland Garros collection with his Gucci x Head bag, while Andrey Rublev and Matteo Berrettini opted for blue shades. Other players displayed brand statements as well, with appearances from Madison Keys, Moise Kouame, Alexander Zverev, Elina Svitolina, Victoria Mboko, Marta Kostyuk, Joao Fonseca and Iga Swiatek.

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ATP French Open Grand Slam

Arnaldi reaches first Grand Slam semi as Berrettini retires with leg problem

Arnaldi advances to his first major semifinal after Berrettini retires; rematch with Cobolli awaits.

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Matteo Arnaldi advanced to his maiden Grand Slam semifinal at Roland Garros after Matteo Berrettini retired with a left-leg problem while trailing 7-5, 5-2. Berrettini appeared to struggle early in the second set and could not continue after exactly two hours on court.

“It’s a tough one,” Arnaldi said in his on-court interview. “We both played a lot so it’s normal not to be at our best, but you never wish someone to end the tournament like this.”

Arnaldi arrived at the quarterfinal having spent a record 17 hours and 42 minutes on court en route to his first Grand Slam quarterfinal, the most time on court to reach a major quarterfinal since the ATP began recording match times in 1991. He won his first two rounds in four sets and his last two in five, and on Wednesday he received a partial reprieve from another long contest.

“I’m tired, that’s for sure, but you know I train and I play tennis to play these kinds of tournaments, these kinds of matches, so I’m trying to give it all that I’ve got,” he said. “Obviously today I was a little bit more tired than usual. I wasn’t as fast as I think I was in the first match. But I’m here and I’m enjoying to play tennis again—I was injured until not that long ago, so I’m happy to be here and give all I have.”

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Before this week Arnaldi had never been past the fourth round of a major, having reached the fourth round at the US Open in 2023 and at Roland Garros in 2024. “It’s unbelievable to be honest. I still can’t believe it,” he said of the achievement. “If I think what I was a month ago, I was almost No. 150 in the world and played the Challenger in Cagliari, now I trained how I wanted and now I’m here. I’m just happy to be here and happy to play these matches again.”

Currently ranked No. 104, Arnaldi is projected to rise to No. 34 by reaching the semifinals, according to the ATP’s official live rankings; his career-high is No. 30, which he would surpass with one more win here.

Up next is countryman and No. 10 seed Flavio Cobolli, who earlier upset No. 4 seed Felix Auger-Aliassime, 4-6, 6-4, 6-4, 6-4. The pair are 1-1 at tour level. Cobolli won their meeting at Roland Garros last year, 6-3, 6-3, 6-7 (6), 6-1, while Arnaldi prevailed in Umag in 2023, 6-3, 7-6 (5). The two have also met three times below tour level, with Arnaldi winning twice.

“We’re going to spend a lot of time together. It’s normal for us,” Arnaldi said of his countryman. “We always train together and stay together. We played here last year—he won in four—but we’ve played many times before.

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“Hopefully it’s going to be a good fight, and a good match.”

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ATP French Open Grand Slam

Mensik Maintains Focus to Beat Fonseca and Reach Roland Garros Semifinals

Mensik kept his composure to beat Fonseca and reach his first Grand Slam semifinal at Roland Garros.

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Jakub Mensik reached his first major semifinal with a composed performance, defeating Joao Fonseca 6-4, 6-3, 7-6 (3) Tuesday evening under the lights with the roof closed on Court Philippe Chatrier. The 20-year-old became the first man born in 2004 or later to reach a Grand Slam semifinal.

Mensik took control early and, despite a tense finish, closed out the match in straight sets. Up two sets, Mensik saved a set point while working his way back on serve in the third after twice falling a break behind. Fonseca then fended off six match points to force a tiebreak, with one of those chances slipping away on an errant overhead miss from Mensik, before the Czech converted on his seventh opportunity.

“The last 20, 30 minutes of the match, it was just really insane the level from both of us and actually a lot of, I would say, key moments at the time,” Mensik assessed in his press conference.

At the time even if the crowd erupts, I couldn’t hear anything. Basically I was that much in the zone and so focused that actually I was just focusing on every other point. Jakub Mensik on blocking out the noise late in the third set

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Reflected the 19-year-old Brazilian in defeat, “I did my best today. I think I put all I had on court, but yeah, unfortunately it was Jakub’s day. He played good tennis. I wish him good luck.

“The way he deals with the important points is also really impressive. I think he controlled most of the part of the match, serving pretty well and doing the entrance with the return pretty well.”

Mensik created 21 break points and converted five return games. His run through the clay swing had been uneven: a toe infection forced a Monte Carlo withdrawal, he posted two wins in Madrid, lost his Rome opener to Alexei Popyrin and split two matches in Hamburg. His French Open campaign nearly ended in the second round when the No. 26 seed survived Mariano Navone 7-6 (13-11) in the fifth; Mensik required seven match points in that match, collapsed from the heat and was taken off in a wheelchair.

Crediting his fitness, Mensik said, “I was basically super happy that I could come to Roland Garros, finally good prepared without any injury, playing pain-free. As the tournament is going, I’m playing better and better,” he commented.

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A familiar opponent awaits on Friday: 2024 finalist Alexander Zverev, who halted Rafael Jodar in straight sets. Mensik was edged by Zverev in a deciding set at Madrid in their first tour meeting.

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