The opening Grand Slam of 2026 sets up as a clash between consistency and possibility. Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner have met in the last three major finals and, as they move into their mid-20s, they remain the presumptive protagonists. Still, 126 other players arrive intent on upsetting expectations.

Alcaraz has never advanced to the Australian Open semifinals. Three years ago he was injured; two years ago he lost to Alexander Zverev in the quarterfinals; last year he lost to Novak Djokovic, also in the quarterfinals. This season he enters his first major without long-time coach Juan Carlos Ferrero. “When Ferrero wasn’t there, Alcaraz could look lost.” His early path is manageable on paper: a first match with No. 79 Adam Walton, a third-round possibility against Corentin Moutet or Seb Korda, Tommy Paul in the fourth round and No. 6 Alex De Minaur projected in the quarters. He is 5-0 against De Minaur. Other quarter rivals include Alexander Bublik, Flavio Cobolli and Frances Tiafoe, but none would meet him until the quarterfinals.

Alexander Zverev arrives as No. 3 in the world, a 2025 finalist at Melbourne Park with a 31-10 record there. His recent struggles complicate the picture, yet the seeds nearest him are Andrey Rublev and Cam Norrie, opponents he is 13-3 against in total. The lower half of his quarter contains No. 11 Daniil Medvedev and No. 7 Felix Auger-Aliassime. Medvedev, coming off a Brisbane title, is a three-time Australian Open finalist aiming to atone for a 2025 collapse. Auger-Aliassime reached the quarters here and finished last year in the Top 5. “If Medvedev and FAA collide in the fourth round, I’ll take Medvedev. I’ll also take him over Zverev in the quarters.”

Novak Djokovic brings a record at the tournament of 10 titles and 99-10, but at 38 he has not won a major since 2023. He reached the 2025 semifinals at all four Slams before either injury or being outmatched by Sinner or Alcaraz. He opens against Pedro Martinez and could face Brandon Nakashima in a later round; possible big servers await in the fourth. If fitness holds, he projects as the favorite to make a 13th semi. Dark horse: No. 31 Stefanos Tsitsipas.

Sinner has a 14-match Australian Open winning streak dating to 2023, dropped just two sets en route to last year’s title and looks well suited to the conditions and atmosphere. He opens against No. 94 Hugo Gaston (Sinner 2-0 against him) with potential matches against Joao Fonseca and Karen Khachanov and quarter possibilities in Ben Shelton and Casper Ruud. “All of which is to say: Sinner losing before the semis would be a shock.”

Medvedev d. Alcaraz; Sinner d. Djokovic

Roger Federer will make a planned return to the Australian Open stage as part of the tournament’s inaugural Opening Ceremony ahead of the 2026 event. The six-time champion will partner Andre Agassi, Lleyton Hewitt and Pat Rafter in a doubles match billed as a “Battle of the world No. 1s.” The appearance marks his first time on Rod Laver Arena since 2020 and follows his official retirement at the 2022 Laver Cup.

At a press conference ahead of the ceremony, Federer spoke plainly about the mix of emotion the event brings. “I’m nervous, I’m excited, I’m happy I’m here,” he said, in remarks moderated by former ATP doubles No. 1 Todd Woodbridge. “I’m happy there’s a moment for the crowd, for me personally, but also being on the court with Lleyton that I shared so much with, Pat that I always loved playing against, even though I never beat him. I always loved Pat. He was one of my favorite players. Then Andre, I was fortunate enough to play against him maybe 10 times or so. Just being together with those guys is going to make me feel better, as well.

“I have great memories of just being here,” he added. “It’s been an incredible tournament for me and one of my favorite places to play tennis.”

Now 44, Federer has gradually returned to exhibition-style play, including a celebrity doubles match at last fall’s Rolex Shanghai Masters, and has floated the idea of a possible “Legends” tour with Rafael Nadal. He also stressed that family life constrains his schedule and that doubles fits his current priorities. “It’s hard to make it a priority in the schedule when you have four children and so many other things going on,” he said. “I’m happy I’m super still active, busy, doing loads of sports. Tennis is part of that.”

The appearance is positioned as a farewell to the Australian Open from one of its most celebrated champions, combining nostalgia with a light-competition showcase for fans on the eve of the 2026 tournament.

The 2026 Australian Open men’s draw, revealed Thursday, set up a notable path through the top half of the field and across the bottom. Ten-time champion Novak Djokovic was placed as the No. 4 seed in the third quarter, positioning him as a projected semifinal opponent for defending champion Jannik Sinner.

Sinner arrives at the tournament bidding for a third consecutive Australian Open crown. He captured his first major title at this event in 2024 and will open his title defense against France’s Hugo Gaston. Seeded directly behind world No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz, Sinner’s early section also lists Brazilian Joao Fonseca as his first projected seeded opponent in the third round.

If the seeding holds, American Ben Shelton is slated to meet Sinner in the quarterfinals. That potential quarterfinal pairing reinforces the stacked nature of Sinner’s quarter and the wider implications for the semifinals, where Djokovic’s placement makes for a high-profile projected clash.

Carlos Alcaraz’s position at the top of the draw leaves the defending champion and Djokovic on a collision course in opposite halves until the advanced rounds. The alignment of seeds creates a clear narrative for the tournament: a top seed carrying expectations at the summit, a defending champion aiming for a three-peat, and a multiple-time winner navigating a draw that could pitch him against the current titleholder before the final.

With the draw now public, attention will turn to early matches and how the projected matchups materialize on court. For Sinner, Gaston represents the immediate test. For Djokovic, the third quarter presents a pathway that, if both players advance as seeded, would culminate in a semifinal meeting with the defending champion.