With main-draw play set to begin Wednesday, March 4, attention turns to the standout contenders at the 2026 BNP Paribas Open in Tennis Paradise. A panel of analysts handicapped the field and singled out several players likely to generate the most interest as the Sunshine Swing gets under way.

Victoria Mboko. She just broke into the Top 10 and has already reached two WTA 1000 finals, winning my home tournament up in Canada last summer. Heading into Indian Wells, I truly believe the sky’s the limit!

Carlos Alcaraz. Carlos is, by far, the most exciting player in tennis right now. He is also the best shot maker and arguably has the best attitude in the history of tennis.

(I also have a wager with my friends that I can get invited to dinner or lunch with him and his crew at least one time this year—so picking him just might give me another opportunity at making that happen!)

Aryna Sabalenka. The world No. 1 played a great Australian Open but took a tough loss in the final to Elena Rybakina and hasn’t played since, skipping both Middle East tournaments in Doha and Dubai. I’m interested to see how she’s holding up emotionally as much as with her tennis.

Learner Tien. This young American made a meteoric rise into the Top 20 in his first full year on tour. How will he handle the occasion of playing in his de facto hometown tournament as a seed?

Those selections set the stage for a compelling fortnight in Indian Wells, where established stars and rising talents will test form and resilience on a big-court stage.

The 2026 BNP Paribas Open delivers a concentration of streaks, records and ranking battles. At the top of the list is Carlos Alcaraz, who has opened the year 12-0, with titles at the Australian Open and Doha. Alcaraz arrives at Indian Wells with a 20-3 career record at the event, having won the title in 2023 and 2024 and reached at least the semifinals in each of the last four years.

A persistent challenger is Sinner, who closed 2025 on a 15-match winning streak but has shown signs of cooling in 2026, losing in the Australian Open semifinals and the Doha quarterfinals. Those back-to-back results marked the first time since 2024 that he fell before the final at consecutive events. Sinner’s best Indian Wells results are two semifinals, and it remains the only hard-court Masters 1000 he has not won. He cannot overtake Alcaraz for No. 1 in this event, but he can reduce a 3,150-point deficit.

When Alcaraz and Sinner have both been in the draw, one of them has claimed the title in the last 17 tournaments they entered. That run covers eight Grand Slams, two ATP Finals, five Masters 1000 events and two ATP 500s. The last time both were in a draw and neither won was Andrey Rublev in Madrid in 2024.

Djokovic is another storyline. The world No. 3 returns after his run to the Australian Open final. He is the only player ever to beat both Alcaraz and Sinner at the same tournament, doing so at the 2023 ATP Finals with scorelines of 6-3, 6-2 and 6-3, 6-3. Djokovic is tied for the most Indian Wells titles at five and would set a new tournament record with a sixth. He already holds the record for most Masters 1000 titles overall at 40.

On the women’s side, Aryna Sabalenka seeks her first Indian Wells crown after reaching finals in 2023 and 2025. She is chasing a 10th WTA 1000 title. Sabalenka’s No. 1 ranking is protected by a 3,087-point cushion, though she must defend 650 points from last year’s final. Iga Swiatek remains the only woman to win the event twice in even years, 2022 and 2024, and the women’s draw has never produced a three-time champion in 36 editions. Meanwhile, Swiatek’s No. 2 ranking is vulnerable to Elena Rybakina, Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula.

Two 2025 champions return to defend titles. Draper’s breakthrough Masters 1000 win propelled him into the Top 10, but after a lengthy eight-month absence with an arm injury he now sits at No. 15 and faces the risk of falling out of the Top 20 with an early exit. Andreeva arrives having won back-to-back WTA 1000 titles last year, defeating No. 2 Swiatek and No. 1 Sabalenka in successive rounds.

Grigor Dimitrov has expanded his coaching team in a bid to regain the form that made him a fixture in the biggest matches. Working alongside Xavier Malisse, the Bulgarian added former world No. 3 David Nalbandian to his camp ahead of the Abierto Mexicano Telcel in Acapulco as his season turns toward the Sunshine Double.

Dimitrov confirmed the pairing after bringing Malisse on at the start of the year. “In a way, it happened so naturally. Right now we are still finding our footing, because it’s very new for all of us,” he told ATP Media ahead of his opening match. “But things are very clear of what needs to be done and how we want to tackle the game.”

The connection is rooted in history. Dimitrov faced both men early in his career: he lost his maiden ATP semifinal at 2012 London Queen’s to Nalbandian and won two of three meetings with Malisse. That shared experience helped the partnership form quickly. “It’s nice when you can relate to someone that you have played. At the beginning, when I got into the conversations with them, we really started to see things similarly,” he commented. “I could relate to them in terms of the timing of their careers, injuries, game plan, thoughts, and all of that.”

Currently ranked No. 44, Dimitrov opened his Acapulco campaign with a 6-3, 6-3 loss to Terence Atmane. He arrives at Indian Wells seeking to halt a four-match losing streak and to rebuild after the pectoral injury he suffered while leading Jannik Sinner by two sets in the fourth round of 2025 Wimbledon. “It’s still kind of early in the year, but I’m looking forward to put myself back there. Not only in the mix, but in the position to have those big and heavy matches,” Dimitrov said.

“I miss going through those types of matches. I’m trying to prepare, mostly physically, for them right now. I know my game will follow, but I just need to get myself in the same place again.”