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Five ATP players whose Indian Wells result could define the start of 2026

A look at five ATP players whose 2026 seasons could hinge on a strong Indian Wells showing. in March

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Indian Wells traditionally accelerates the season, and for several men the desert will offer a clear gauge of where their 2026 campaigns are headed. Here are five players for whom a deep run would be particularly useful.

Jannik Sinner (Rank: 2) — 2025 IW: Did Not Play
Sinner’s history in the tournament is complicated. He tested positive for a banned substance after the 2024 edition, and was banned from the event in 2025. He has yet to reach the final at Indian Wells, losing to Carlos Alcaraz in the semifinals in both 2023 and 2024. Sinner has trailed Alcaraz slightly this year, falling in the Melbourne semifinals and Doha quarterfinals while Alcaraz captured both titles. A first title in the desert would be a timely statement.

Taylor Fritz (Rank: 7) — 2025 IW: 4th round
Fritz is 8-3 since the United Cup, reached the final in Dallas and had match points for the title there, and has moved up to No. 7 despite a shaky knee. Indian Wells is a home tournament for the SoCal native: he won it four years ago. At 28, Fritz has spent his 20s climbing into the Top 10 and into second weeks at majors; another strong showing in the desert would help him push beyond merely holding a top-10 place.

Daniil Medvedev (Rank: 11) — 2025 IW: Semifinal
Medvedev looked ready for a reboot in 2026 after a difficult prior 12 months. He hired a new coach and began 2026 strongly, winning Brisbane and compiling a 12-3 start to the season. He was upset by Learner Tien in the Australian Open fourth round and then lost early in Rotterdam and Doha; at the time of this piece he was in the semifinals in Dubai. Medvedev has made the Indian Wells final twice and reached the 2025 semifinals, meaning he will be defending points there. An early exit would stall his comeback.

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Jakub Mensik (Rank: 13) — 2025 IW: 2nd round
Mensik’s crucial week is Miami, where he defends champion’s points. After his Miami title he failed to make another semifinal in 2025. In 2026 he has been inconsistent, though he won Auckland and reached the Doha semifinal after defeating Sinner. Still only 20 and standing 6’5, Mensik’s serve and youth suggest a deep Sunshine Double would accelerate his development.

Cerundolo (Rank: 19) — 2025 IW: Quarterfinal
Last spring Cerundolo looked poised to become a multi-surface threat. He used South American clay momentum to reach the Indian Wells and Miami quarterfinals, then made semifinals in Munich and Madrid and arrived at Roland Garros as a dark horse. He lost in the first round at Roland Garros and then at Wimbledon, and never regained form in 2025.

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Alex Eala’s rise turns Toronto into a major draw

Eala’s WTA rise has filled seats in Toronto and set up her next test in Cincinnati.

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Alex Eala’s profile has climbed sharply during the 2026 season, to the point that she has become one of the WTA Tour’s most in-demand attractions.

Her appeal has been visible in several corners of the calendar. She first captured attention at the Australian Open at the start of the year, then carried that momentum into the Middle East through the Abu Dhabi Open and the Qatar Open.

The next surge came during the North American hardcourt swing. The 21-year-old impressed crowds by winning the Washington Open title, before Toronto delivered another clear sign of her growing pull. The Canadian Open was heavily impacted by her presence, with evening sessions featuring Eala selling out well in advance.

A tournament director described the response as “just unprecedented.” That reaction reflected more than full stands. It also captured the way interest built steadily over time, beginning in February in Doha and continuing through the year until it reached its peak during the tournament week in Toronto.

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“We’ve never seen anything like that in Toronto before. It was unexpected. We saw the momentum build from February in Doha, and over the past year. And it really culminated in the week of, which every match she played it sold out,” he continued.

“She was just so engaging with her fans and the community. It was really beautiful to see her so loyal to her fans. I think one of the uniquenesses about this event in particular this year was, in the past we saw tens of flags from various nations throughout.

“This year we saw hundreds and thousands of flags. Last night you saw the engagement of the fans with each other, which was great to see. In addition to that, you saw the fans staying until the end of the session for the whole tournament.”

The event’s organisers are now set to reassess their approach for next year after seeing how strongly Eala resonated with the crowd. Hale said the experience offered a clear lesson in connecting with fans, especially new ones, and in serving Toronto’s multicultural community more broadly.

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Eala now moves on to the Cincinnati Open, where she will attempt to extend her strong run. She is scheduled to face Elena-Gabriela Ruse in the opening round of the Masters event.

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Eala advances in Cincinnati and is poised for a new career-high ranking

Eala’s Cincinnati win lifts her toward a new career-high ranking and sets up Anisimova next.

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Alex Eala is heading toward another ranking breakthrough after opening her Cincinnati Open campaign with a win that sent her into the third round.

The Filipina was in control against world No 74 Elena-Gabriela Ruse in the second round, leading 6-1, 3-0 when the Romanian retired because of injury. After dropping her serve in the first game, Eala took the next nine games in sequence and broke Ruse five times in a row. She finished with 43 of the 62 points played in the match.

This is Eala’s first appearance at the WTA 1000 tournament in Cincinnati, where she entered as the 17th seed and received a first-round bye. She began the event at a career-high ranking of world No 20, following a run to the fourth round at the Canadian Open and her title at the Washington Open.

The 21-year-old’s current stretch has now reached 11 wins from her last 13 matches, a sequence that began when she advanced to the fourth round at Wimbledon.

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Her second-round victory in Cincinnati earned 65 ranking points, lifting her total to 2,221. That moves her up three places to a projected career-best world No 17 in the Live WTA Rankings.

Next, Eala faces world No 10 Amanda Anisimova, the ninth seed in Cincinnati, in the third round at the Lindner Family Tennis Center in Mason, Ohio. It will be their first meeting. Anisimova, 24, is a two-time Grand Slam finalist.

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Sabalenka keeps WTA No. 1, but Kostyuk leads UTR after Canadian Open

Sabalenka stays WTA No. 1, but Marta Kostyuk moves to the top of the UTR women’s list.

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Aryna Sabalenka remains the leader in the WTA Rankings after the Canadian Open, yet the Belarusian has slipped from the summit in another system that measures women’s tennis form from a different angle.

Sabalenka, a four-time Grand Slam champion, has held the WTA world No. 1 position for 95 straight weeks since October 2024. In total, she has now spent 103 weeks at the top. Even so, her Canadian Open run ended in the fourth round, and her WTA total stands at 8,670 points, leaving her 354 ahead of world No. 2 Elena Rybakina, the runner-up in Canada.

The focus now turns to the UTR rating system, which places more value on recent results and victories over stronger opponents than the standard 52-week WTA points race. UTR is open to players across all levels and rates everyone on the same scale from 1.00 to 16.50. It counts only matches from the last 12 months and uses a player’s most recent 30 matches, or fewer if necessary.

That approach has produced a new name at the top. Marta Kostyuk, the world No. 11 on the WTA Tour, has won 24 of her 27 matches since the start of the clay-court season. The 24-year-old Ukrainian now leads the UTR list with a rating of 13.08, edging Sabalenka, whose rating dropped to 13.07 after the Canadian Open.

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Rybakina sits third on 13.05, followed by Coco Gauff at 12.98. Jessica Pegula, Elina Svitolina and Mirra Andreeva are tied on 12.94 in fifth, sixth and seventh place. Iga Swiatek, Linda Noskova and Naomi Osaka round out the top 10.

One notable position comes from world No. 20 Alex Eala, who is 23rd on the UTR list with a rating of 12.64 despite her strong recent form.

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