The 2026 BNP Paribas Open arrives with main-draw action beginning Wednesday, March 4, and American men figure prominently in the conversation at Tennis Paradise. Eugenie Bouchard singles out a compact group of U.S. contenders and places Ben Shelton at the center of expectations.

Ben Shelton. His game has shown clear evolution and he often lifts his level at the biggest events. With Indian Wells regarded as the premier U.S. tournament after the US Open, the setting feels appropriate for Shelton, who already won a first Masters 1000 title in Canada last summer.

Tommy Paul. After a 2025 season hampered by injury, Paul appears to have recovered and has produced a strong start to 2026. His Delray Beach win over Taylor Fritz—the only American man to win Indian Wells since Andre Agassi in 2001—was certainly a statement about his readiness to return to the Top 10 and beyond. Back to full health in Australia, he played great to reach the second week and gave Carlos Alcaraz all he could handle over three close sets in the fourth round. If he stays healthy and consistent, Paul could be the most dangerous American in the draw.

Taylor Fritz. Local support and familiarity with the event add weight to his prospects. “Total transparency: how can i go against my man in his hometown tournament? A tournament he’s the only one of his countrymen to have won before, no less.” That hometown element and previous success at the event create a compelling backdrop for his campaign.

Indian Wells will demand serve, return and stamina across large courts and long days. Between Shelton’s upward trajectory, Paul’s return to form and Fritz’s home-court narrative, the U.S. contingent arrives with several credible candidates to produce the best American result as the Sunshine Swing begins.

Frances Tiafoe advanced to the Acapulco final after recovering from a set down to beat fellow American Brandon Nakashima, 3-6, 7-6 (6), 6-4.

Nakashima served for the match at 6-5 in the second set and earlier had created pressure with triple break point at 3-all. He was also two points from victory at 6-all in the second-set tiebreak, but Tiafoe survived a 71-minute second set and carried the momentum into the decider. He broke in the first game of the third set, extended the lead with another break for 5-2, and, after Nakashima reclaimed one break to close to 5-4, served out the match on his second attempt with a big overhead.

“It’s incredible. The stars are definitely aligning, man, it’s not making sense, anything that happened,” Tiafoe said afterwards.

“Things started to make sense when I was down, obviously I had a couple of net cords there. You know, made every return there at 6-5, but obviously I wasn’t feeling my best. I was just competing and battling, and sometimes you get lucky. Played great tennis in the third—in the third I was the better player.

“Just battling, man. Never say die. I was ready to empty the tank.”

Tiafoe had already shown that temperament earlier in the week, coming back from the brink in his second-round match. He fought off double match point down 6-4 in the third-set tiebreak to defeat Aleksandar Kovacevic, 6-4, 3-6, 7-6 (7), and again displayed resilience in Friday’s semifinal.

The victory moves Tiafoe into the 11th ATP final of his career and gives him a chance at the biggest title of his career. His three ATP titles to date all came at the ATP 250 level, in Delray Beach in 2018 and in Houston and Stuttgart in 2023. He has finished runner-up in three finals at the ATP 500 level or higher: Vienna in 2021 (ATP 500), Tokyo in 2022 (ATP 500) and Cincinnati in 2024 (Masters 1000).

Waiting in the Acapulco final is Italy’s Flavio Cobolli, who rallied from 3-1 down in the third set to beat Miomir Kecmanovic earlier, 7-6 (5), 3-6, 6-4. Cobolli will pursue his third ATP title and the equal-biggest of his career, having won an ATP 500 in Hamburg last year.

Frances Tiafoe will contest the Acapulco title after coming from a set down to defeat countryman Brandon Nakashima in a dramatic semifinal, 3-6, 7-6 (6), 6-4.

Nakashima served for the match at 6-5 in the second set and had earlier brought up triple break point at 3-all, plus two match points at 6-all in the second-set tiebreak. Tiafoe persevered in a marathon 71-minute second set, then broke in the opening game of the decider and again for a 5-2 lead. Nakashima recovered one break to close to 5-4, but Tiafoe served out the win on his second try, finishing with a big overhead.

“It’s incredible. The stars are definitely aligning, man, it’s not making sense, anything that happened,” Tiafoe said afterwards.

“Things started to make sense when I was down, obviously I had a couple of net cords there. You know, made every return there at 6-5, but obviously I wasn’t feeling my best. I was just competing and battling, and sometimes you get lucky. Played great tennis in the third—in the third I was the better player.

“Just battling, man. Never say die. I was ready to empty the tank.”

The win puts Tiafoe into the 11th ATP final of his career and offers a chance at the biggest title of his career. His three ATP titles to date all came at the ATP 250 level: Delray Beach in 2018 and Houston and Stuttgart in 2023. He has reached finals at the ATP 500 level or higher three times previously but finished runner-up each time: Vienna in 2021 (ATP 500), Tokyo in 2022 (ATP 500) and Cincinnati in 2024 (Masters 1000).

Awaiting Tiafoe in the Acapulco final will be Italy’s Flavio Cobolli, who rallied from 3-1 down in the third set to beat Miomir Kecmanovic earlier on the day, 7-6 (5), 3-6, 6-4. Cobolli will pursue his third ATP title and the equal-biggest of his career, having won an ATP 500 in Hamburg last year.