The 2026 BNP Paribas Open arrives with main-draw action beginning Wednesday, March 4, and American men figure prominently in the conversation at Tennis Paradise. Eugenie Bouchard singles out a compact group of U.S. contenders and places Ben Shelton at the center of expectations.

Ben Shelton. His game has shown clear evolution and he often lifts his level at the biggest events. With Indian Wells regarded as the premier U.S. tournament after the US Open, the setting feels appropriate for Shelton, who already won a first Masters 1000 title in Canada last summer.

Tommy Paul. After a 2025 season hampered by injury, Paul appears to have recovered and has produced a strong start to 2026. His Delray Beach win over Taylor Fritz—the only American man to win Indian Wells since Andre Agassi in 2001—was certainly a statement about his readiness to return to the Top 10 and beyond. Back to full health in Australia, he played great to reach the second week and gave Carlos Alcaraz all he could handle over three close sets in the fourth round. If he stays healthy and consistent, Paul could be the most dangerous American in the draw.

Taylor Fritz. Local support and familiarity with the event add weight to his prospects. “Total transparency: how can i go against my man in his hometown tournament? A tournament he’s the only one of his countrymen to have won before, no less.” That hometown element and previous success at the event create a compelling backdrop for his campaign.

Indian Wells will demand serve, return and stamina across large courts and long days. Between Shelton’s upward trajectory, Paul’s return to form and Fritz’s home-court narrative, the U.S. contingent arrives with several credible candidates to produce the best American result as the Sunshine Swing begins.

The BNP Paribas Open arrives as a season-defining moment, and five WTA players head to the desert needing form, confidence or a return to health.

Rank: 2
2025 IW Result: Semifinal
Iga Świątek has long relished Indian Wells and its conditions: she won the title there in 2022 and 2024. In previous winning years she arrived with a Doha title behind her; this year she helped Poland to a team title at United Cup but has played only two tournaments since, losing in the quarterfinals at the Australian Open and in Doha. She pulled out of Dubai to better prepare for IW. The slow hard courts suit her game, and an early loss could drop her to No. 3, behind Rybakina, in the rankings.

Rank: 4
2025 IW Result: 4th round
Coco Gauff will face intense home support in California after two months away. Her 2026 form offers cautious optimism: she made the Australian Open quarters and the Dubai semis, losing to Elina Svitolina both times. Service issues persist but have not derailed her season. Last year she did not hit her stride until clay; she has never gone past the semifinals at Indian Wells and lost to Belinda Bencic in the fourth round here a year ago. With Rybakina moving ahead in the rankings and Pegula closing in, a strong showing on slow hard courts would be timely.

Rank: 8
2025 IW Result: Champion
Mirra Andreeva moved from hunter to hunted after breaking through in 2025. At 17 she won her first 1000-level event in Dubai in February 2025 and reached the quarters there this year, which dropped her from No. 7 to No. 8. In March 2025 she followed Dubai with Indian Wells, beating Swiatek and Sabalenka back to back in three-set semifinal and final wins. She did not reach another final in 2025. She began 2026 with a title run in Adelaide. Now she must learn to defend and manage ranking points and expectations.

Rank: 20
2025 IW Result: 3rd round
In 2024 Navarro announced herself by upsetting Sabalenka to reach the quarterfinals. Now she is 4-7 on the year and came off a title defense in Merida that ended with a first-round loss. Zhang Shuai said she didn’t really “do anything special.” Navarro’s ground strokes that once found corners are finding net or flying long, and even the poker-faced South Carolinian, known to her family as “Ice”, is showing frustration. Navarro has won back-to-back matches this year just once.

Rank: 24
2025 IW Result: Quarterfinals
The 23-year-old Zheng is seeking form after elbow surgery kept her off the tour for the second half of 2025. This will be just her third event since Wimbledon last year.

The 2026 BNP Paribas Open arrives with Carlos Alcaraz the focal point. Main-draw play begins Wednesday, March 4, and a group of analysts assessed who is most likely to emerge victorious as the Sunshine Swing gets under way. Their consensus: Alcaraz is the clear favorite.

Alcaraz has not lost a match in 2026, sitting at 12-0 after two tournaments, and he appears to be managing his schedule carefully so he stays fresh for Indian Wells. Success in Melbourne and Doha underpins his momentum. Analysts also pointed to his split with coach Juan Carlos Ferrero and said the Spaniard has grown stronger since that change, widening the margin between himself and No. 2 Jannik Sinner. The analysts noted that Sinner has zero points to defend over the next two months, a factor that matters for rankings but not for the immediate expectations at BNP Paribas Open.

On paper, Elena Rybakina is one of the few players singled out as a genuine challenger. She is “absolutely playing great tennis,” the analysts said, but the women’s draw is deeper overall, which complicates forecasting a repeat of Alcaraz’s dominance on the men’s side.

Beyond raw form, surface and conditions were raised as decisive elements. The court conditions at Indian Wells were described as grittier and tougher to finish points on, favoring players with superior movement and varied offense. Analysts felt those traits play into Alcaraz’s strengths and make him difficult to beat in these circumstances.

Predictions ranged in tone but returned to the same conclusion: Alcaraz is the frontrunner to continue his unbeaten run through Indian Wells, while Rybakina remains a live candidate on the women’s side. With the BNP Paribas Open set to begin, the discussion will shift from projection to performance once play starts on March 4.