The 2026 BNP Paribas Open women’s draw sets world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka into a demanding top quarter that also includes Naomi Osaka, Victoria Mboko and Amanda Anisimova.

Sabalenka returns to competition for the first time since the Australian Open and is projected to meet No. 6 seed Amanda Anisimova in the quarterfinals, a potential rematch of the 2025 US Open final. Before that, Anisimova is slated to face No. 10 seed Victoria Mboko in the fourth round while Sabalenka opened the draw against former champion Naomi Osaka.

Also in the top section is No. 18 seed Iva Jovic, the projected third-round opponent for Osaka. Jovic arrives at Indian Wells off her breakthrough Australian Open run, where she made her maiden major quarterfinal.

Sabalenka shares the top half of the draw with No. 3 seed Coco Gauff. She has not played since finishing runner-up to Elena Rybakina at the first Grand Slam tournament of the season. Sabalenka withdrew from both Middle East WTA 1000 events at the Qatar TotalEnergies Open and the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championship, but the Indian Wells Tennis Garden has been a productive venue for her in past years, with two finals appearances, including last year.

The bottom half features Mirra Andreeva, who reached the 2025 BNP Paribas Open final. Seeded eighth this year, Andreeva is projected to occupy a quarter that includes No. 2 seed Iga Swiatek, a player Andreeva beat en route to her first Indian Wells title. Andreeva is also projected to meet No. 9 seed Elina Svitolina in the fourth round, a rematch of their Australian Open meeting won by Svitolina in straight sets.

Australian Open champion Elena Rybakina is the No. 3 seed and is projected to face No. 15 seed Madison Keys in a fourth-round match; Keys reached the BNP Paribas Open semifinals last year. Rybakina reached the quarterfinals in Doha after Melbourne, lost to Mboko in three sets and retired in her second-round match in Dubai.

Notable wild cards include Venus Williams and 2019 champion Bianca Andreescu, each scheduled to face qualifiers in their opening rounds.

The 2026 BNP Paribas Open begins main-draw play on Wednesday, March 4, and two of the event’s leading American contenders head into the desert with contrasting momentum. Coco Gauff arrives ranked higher, while Jessica Pegula reaches the Sunshine Swing fresh from a title run in Dubai.

Pegula’s season form has been notable. She has made the semifinals or better in her last seven tournaments, a string that culminated with last week’s WTA 1000 win in Dubai. She may be dealing with a knee injury but the concern in the draft suggested that could be a function of heavy early-season play rather than a long-term problem. Historically Pegula has posted stronger results at the Miami Open, but the Indian Wells Tennis Garden’s famous gritty courts should suit her high-percentage game.

Gauff showed strong signs in Dubai as well, including the match she lost to Elina Svitolina in the semifinals. Despite some improvements during the Middle East swing, observers noted that frustration with her serve remained a factor. Gauff has never won Indian Wells, and that absence of a title at this event could act as extra motivation. The tournament’s gritty, high-bouncing courts are widely viewed as favorable to her forehand and could add zip to her serve.

The comparison boils down to form and surface fit. Pegula arrives with recent results and a WTA 1000 trophy; Gauff brings higher ranking, clear comfort on the venue’s playing conditions, and incentive to go deeper than she has before. Some commentary also mentioned Emma Navarro as a player who could have a good tournament, but the immediate focus for many will be which of these two Americans can turn early promise into sustained success at Indian Wells.

Both players present believable paths to the latter rounds, and the first week will likely determine whether recent form or stylistic fit proves more decisive on these courts.

The BNP Paribas Open arrives as a season-defining moment, and five WTA players head to the desert needing form, confidence or a return to health.

Rank: 2
2025 IW Result: Semifinal
Iga Świątek has long relished Indian Wells and its conditions: she won the title there in 2022 and 2024. In previous winning years she arrived with a Doha title behind her; this year she helped Poland to a team title at United Cup but has played only two tournaments since, losing in the quarterfinals at the Australian Open and in Doha. She pulled out of Dubai to better prepare for IW. The slow hard courts suit her game, and an early loss could drop her to No. 3, behind Rybakina, in the rankings.

Rank: 4
2025 IW Result: 4th round
Coco Gauff will face intense home support in California after two months away. Her 2026 form offers cautious optimism: she made the Australian Open quarters and the Dubai semis, losing to Elina Svitolina both times. Service issues persist but have not derailed her season. Last year she did not hit her stride until clay; she has never gone past the semifinals at Indian Wells and lost to Belinda Bencic in the fourth round here a year ago. With Rybakina moving ahead in the rankings and Pegula closing in, a strong showing on slow hard courts would be timely.

Rank: 8
2025 IW Result: Champion
Mirra Andreeva moved from hunter to hunted after breaking through in 2025. At 17 she won her first 1000-level event in Dubai in February 2025 and reached the quarters there this year, which dropped her from No. 7 to No. 8. In March 2025 she followed Dubai with Indian Wells, beating Swiatek and Sabalenka back to back in three-set semifinal and final wins. She did not reach another final in 2025. She began 2026 with a title run in Adelaide. Now she must learn to defend and manage ranking points and expectations.

Rank: 20
2025 IW Result: 3rd round
In 2024 Navarro announced herself by upsetting Sabalenka to reach the quarterfinals. Now she is 4-7 on the year and came off a title defense in Merida that ended with a first-round loss. Zhang Shuai said she didn’t really “do anything special.” Navarro’s ground strokes that once found corners are finding net or flying long, and even the poker-faced South Carolinian, known to her family as “Ice”, is showing frustration. Navarro has won back-to-back matches this year just once.

Rank: 24
2025 IW Result: Quarterfinals
The 23-year-old Zheng is seeking form after elbow surgery kept her off the tour for the second half of 2025. This will be just her third event since Wimbledon last year.