Elena Rybakina defeated world No. 9 Elina Svitolina in the semifinals of Indian Wells, 7-5, 6-4, advancing to the WTA 1000 final.

The victory continued a dominant recent stretch for the Kazakh: she has now won 12 straight matches against Top 10 opponents, a run that stretches back to mid-October 2025. Her most recent loss to a Top 10 player came in early October, when she fell to No. 1-ranked Aryna Sabalenka in the quarterfinals in Wuhan.

Sabalenka will be Rybakina’s opponent in Sunday’s final after Sabalenka defeated Linda Noskova in the first semifinal, 6-3, 6-4.

Rybakina entered the match with a 3-3 head-to-head against Svitolina. Svitolina had recent edges in their meetings: she won their last match in Madrid on clay last year and had prevailed in their only previous hard-court meeting, the bronze medal match at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021.

Svitolina started the semifinal strongly, holding and breaking early to lead 2-0, but Rybakina immediately broke back. After a sequence of exchanged holds, Rybakina produced a decisive run, winning seven consecutive games to turn a 4-5 deficit in the first set into a 7-5, 4-0 advantage.

Following a pair of holds, Rybakina moved 5-1 ahead. Svitolina mounted a late resistance, saving a match point to hold for 5-2 and then saving another match point while breaking Rybakina to narrow the score to 5-3 before holding to make it 5-4.

The comeback ended there. Rybakina closed the match with a near-flawless service game, delivering four winners—two off the forehand, one off the backhand, and finishing with a backhand volley winner into the open court on her third and final match point.

ELENA RYBAKINA VS TOP 10 PLAYERS SINCE MID-OCTOBER 2025: 12-0

Photo credit: © 2026 Robert Prange

Their history at Indian Wells has been lopsided. They met in the finals in 2022 and 2024, and Medvedev failed to take a set in those matches. The slow hard courts in past editions allowed Alcaraz extra time to unleash his offense, and he made the most of it.

Medvedev sees reason for optimism this week. “I feel like the court is a bit faster since the two times I have played him,” Medvedev says. “The balls are different. So I feel like it’s a good chance to try to show my best tennis against him.”

There are concrete signs of form behind that statement. After a difficult 2025, Medvedev has returned with renewed momentum in 2026: he already has two titles this season and arrives having won his last eight matches. Along the way at this tournament he has beaten big hitters Jack Draper and Alex Michelsen.

“I feel like I’m playing great, very good tennis,” Medvedev says. “I never want to jump into conclusions like best tennis of my life or whatever. I’m playing very good.”

Alcaraz, meanwhile, remains relentless. He has won all 16 matches he has played in 2026 and has handled a series of challenges at Indian Wells, including wins over Arthur Rinderknech, Casper Ruud and Cam Norrie. Given the recent head-to-head history at this venue and Alcaraz’s unbeaten run this year, he enters as the clear favorite.

The matchup will test whether Medvedev’s improved conditions and strong form this season are enough to alter the pattern established at Indian Wells, or whether Alcaraz continues his dominance on the slower hard courts that previously played to his strengths.

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After a run of defeats early in their rivalry, Jannik Sinner has turned the tide. After losing four straight matches to Zverev, Sinner has won the last five. The pair’s most vivid recent memory is their Australian Open final from last year, when the Italian beat the German in straight sets.

That result clearly lingered for Zverev. The loss punctured his confidence and led to a difficult 2025. Fourteen months later he appears to be finding his form again and cited tighter contests between the two as a reason for optimism. “I think we had quite tight matches,” he said. “Even the last few were very tight. Of course it’s a challenge, but it’s a challenge I’m looking forward to.”

Zverev will draw encouragement from a close indoor final in Vienna last fall. He took the first set 6-3 and remained level through to 5-5 in the third before Sinner produced a decisive winner. “It took an especially brilliant down-the line backhand from Sinner, which skidded off the sideline, to lift him to victory.”

This season Zverev’s revival has shown in several spots. He was only a few points from beating Carlos Alcaraz in Australia to reach the final, and at Indian Wells he has posted wins over Francis Tiafoe and Arthur Fils. Reflecting on his last match he said, “I think I played quicker today than the last couple of matches,” Zverev said after beating Fils. “I think I took the time away and the ability for him to be extremely aggressive. I took that away from him, and when I’m able to do that, I think it’s quite helpful for me.”

Sinner is fully aware of the challenge ahead. “I have to very careful,” he said of this semifinal. “I watch couple of matches. He’s playing great tennis. So trying to, yeah, to bring the best possible tennis I can.”

Photo: © 2025 Shi Tang