ATP BNP Paribas Open Masters
Indian Wells Final Preview: Sinner vs Medvedev — form, history and match-up
Sinner’s recent edge versus Medvedev meets Medvedev’s 2026 revival and big Alcaraz victory. On Sunday, start 5pm ET
Start Time: Not before 5:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, March 15
This Indian Wells final is as much about recent form as it is about a long-running rivalry. Sinner carried a persistent problem early in the matchup: from 2020 through the 2023 Miami final, Medvedev won their first six meetings. When Sinner finally broke through against him in the 2023 Beijing final, something clicked. A month later, he would go on to beat Novak Djokovic for the first time. Two months after that, he would beat Djokovic and Medvedev back to back to win his first major title, at the Australian Open.
After losing his first six matches to him, Sinner has won eight of the last nine. That run peaked in the 2024 Australian Open final, which Medvedev led two sets to love, and it helped send Sinner on a path to No. 1. Medvedev, by contrast, experienced a gradual decline that finished with him out of the Top 10 and split from his long-time coach by the end of 2025.
Medvedev has returned to strong form in 2026. He has a new coach, two titles this year and a 10-match winning streak, capped by a high-profile victory over Carlos Alcaraz. Medvedev described his own level this week: “I feel like I’m playing great, very good tennis,” Medvedev says. “I never want to jump into conclusions like best tennis of my life or whatever. I’m playing very good.” He also emphasised his confidence and willingness to dictate points: “Right now, I’m in confidence and when I’m in confidence, I always said I feel like I’m an aggressive player, especially on my serve,” Medvedev says. “It’s a bit different on the return. But even on the return, whenever I get the opportunity with one great return, and today was the same, I tried to dictate.”
Sinner remains the player who reached No. 1 and who has dominated this pairing recently. “He’s been, in the past, a player who made me improve a lot,” Sinner says of Medvedev. The match-up promises an intriguing contrast: Sinner’s superior ground-stroke pace versus Medvedev’s renewed aggression and depth. That combination sets up an excellent final.
ATP
Sinner’s serve numbers reveal a mixed picture despite his dominance
Sinner’s serve stats show elite power, but his first-serve percentage still leaves room for growth.
Jannik Sinner’s serve has long been viewed as a major part of his rise to the top of the men’s game, yet the numbers from the past year tell a more complicated story.
The world No 1 adjusted his service motion shortly before he began establishing himself as a leading force on the ATP Tour, and that weapon stood out again when he defended his Wimbledon title earlier this month.
After losing the US Open final to Carlos Alcaraz last September, Sinner made it clear that he wanted more variety and consistency on serve. His own words at the time showed how deliberate that change was:
“I can say that I’m gonna become a better tennis player and I’m gonna change a couple of things on the serve, just small things, but, they can make big differences and then we see how it goes,” said Sinner. after that defeat against Alcaraz in New York.
“I’m looking forward to play these matches again, something new is now that I’m not No 1 anymore. Now you chase, it’s different.
“Maybe I will lose some matches from now on, but I will try to do some changes, trying to be a bit more unpredictable as a player and because I think that’s what I have to do, trying to become a better tennis player.”
Even with his strong recent run, the ATP Tour figures for the last 12 months show that there is still work to be done in one area. Sinner ranks 35th in first serve percentage at 63.8%, well behind Alexander Zverev, who leads the list at 72.5%.
The Italian, however, is far more dominant once the first serve lands. He leads the tour in service points won at 80.9%, just ahead of Reilly Opelka on 80.8% and Taylor Fritz on 79.7%.
He also tops service games won at 92.9%, underlining how difficult he is to break. Opelka follows on 90.6%, with Ben Shelton third at 90.4% and Alcaraz at 89.9%.
One remaining area is ace production. Sinner is 27th in that category with an average of 8.2 per match, while Opelka leads with 18.5, followed by Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard on 15.1 and Fritz on 14.1.
ATP
Sinner climbs to No 4 on all-time prize money list after Wimbledon defence
Sinner’s Wimbledon defence lifts him to No 4 on the all-time prize money list in 2026.
Jannik Sinner’s successful Wimbledon title defence brought more than another major trophy. It also lifted the Italian to No 4 on the all-time career prize money list.
Before Wimbledon 2026, Sinner sat at No 6, with Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer occupying the top three spots and Alexander Zverev and Carlos Alcaraz positioned above him. Zverev had recently passed both Alcaraz and Sinner after his French Open run, but the order shifted again once Sinner collected $4,830,756 (£3,600,000) for his latest Wimbledon triumph.
That result leaves Sinner close to becoming only the fourth player to move beyond $70m in career prize money. He has already earned $11,620,364 in 2026 and is on track to break the $20m barrier for the first time in a season.
His rise has been rapid. Last year, he took in $19,120,641, a total that included a record $5,071,000 for winning the ATP Finals undefeated. He finished second on the 2025 earnings list behind Alcaraz, who made $21,354,778, after leading the way in 2024 with $19,735,703.
At the end of the 2024 season, Sinner stood on $37,238,688. Since the start of the 2025 campaign, he has added another $32,347,873. From just $36 in prize money in his first professional year, he now sits on $69,586,561.
Zverev is fifth with $68,392,312, while Alcaraz is on $64,997,598 after not adding to his tally since April because of injury. Andy Murray has fallen to No 7 on $64,687,542, with Daniil Medvedev eighth on $52,192,594. Djokovic, Sinner, Zverev, Alcaraz and Medvedev are the only active players to have passed $40m.
Djokovic remains far ahead in first place with $194,656,816, including $3,000,801 earned in 2026. Nadal is second on $134,946,100 and Federer third on $130,594,339.
ATP French Open Grand Slam
Auger-Aliassime Reaches Career-High No. 4 After Breakthrough at Roland Garros
Auger-Aliassime rises to No. 4 after best Roland Garros run, tying second-highest Canadian rank. Now
Felix Auger-Aliassime moved to a career-high No. 4 in the ATP rankings following his deepest run at Roland Garros, where the 25-year-old reached the quarterfinals for the first time before losing to eventual finalist Flavio Cobolli. The result completed a personal Grand Slam milestone: having previously reached the quarterfinals or better at the Australian Open, Wimbledon and the US Open, he became the first Canadian man to reach the quarterfinals or better at all four majors in his career.
The rise from No. 6 to No. 4 surpasses his prior best of No. 5 and places him tied for the second-highest-ranked Canadian in ATP or WTA rankings history. The only other Canadians to reach the top four are Milos Raonic and Bianca Andreescu. Raonic went as high as No. 3 in 2016, following his run to the Wimbledon final that year, and Andreescu peaked at No. 4 in 2019 after winning the US Open.
Canadian tennis has seen seven players reach the top 10 in either ATP or WTA history, with official rankings available since 1973 for the ATP and 1975 for the WTA.
Auger-Aliassime still has ground to cover to move higher in the standings. He is 2,865 points behind the current world No. 3, Alexander Zverev, with the rankings showing Zverev at 7,305 points and Auger-Aliassime at 4,440.
The Canadian will shift his focus to grass. He begins his grass-court season this week at the ATP 250 event in ‘s-Hertogenbosch, entering as the No. 1 seed. After a first-round bye he will open against either Hubert Hurkacz or Marton Fucsovics.
The new ranking reflects a season of important progress for Auger-Aliassime and cements his place among the highest-ranked Canadians in modern tennis history.
