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Madrid Open preview: Can Sinner and Sabalenka impose themselves at the Caja Magica?

Sinner’s streak and Sabalenka’s Madrid pedigree frame a shuffled draw at the 2026 Caja Magica today

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Two dominant No. 1s arrive in form and the Madrid draw has opened a month of big clay tests. With Carlos Alcaraz sidelined by a wrist issue and Novak Djokovic carrying a shoulder problem, the ATP draw is missing two usual heavyweights. That elevates seeds such as Alexander Zverev, Felix Auger Aliassime, and Ben Shelton. Combined, Sinner has won his last 22 meetings with those three opponents. The last time he lost to any of them was 2023.

In many ways this should suit Jannik Sinner. His clay season has gained momentum. He is on a 17-match winning run, he has won the last four Masters 1000 events dating to late 2025, and he captured his first significant clay title in Monte Carlo. Yet Madrid has been awkward for him. He has reached the quarterfinals only once and he missed last season at the Caja Magica because of a doping suspension. A projected path to the semifinals reads: Qualifier, Gabriel Diallo, Tommy Paul, Alex de Minaur. He is a combined 18-1 against Diallo, Paul, and De Minaur.

On the WTA side Aryna Sabalenka arrives off a rare Sunshine Double. With victories over Elena Rybakina in the Indian Wells final and Coco Gauff in the Miami final she reinforced her status as a clear No. 1 and a player who can close title matches. Madrid is one of her best venues. She is a three-time champion there, having beaten Iga Swiatek in the 2023 final and Coco Gauff last year. Her projected route to the semis includes Stearns or Boisson, Cristian, Naomi Osaka, and then Paolini or Belinda Bencic. Sabalenka beat Osaka in Indian Wells.

Elena Rybakina’s Stuttgart title this week was a statement. She beat Mirra Andreeva and Karolina Muchova en route and sits atop the 2026 Race to Riyadh. Yet Madrid has not yielded many deep runs for her; she is 8-5 here with one semifinal in five attempts. Her quarter contains several threats including Zheng Qinwen, Amanda Anisimova, Madison Keys, Jelena Ostapenko, Maria Sakkari, and Elise Mertens.

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Young ATP names to watch include Rafael Jodar, Alexander Blockx, and Martin Landaluce. Arthur Fils, fresh from a 500-level title in Barcelona and a return from a back injury, lands in Sinner’s half in a quarter with Shelton and Lorenzo Musetti.

Notable projected results from the draft: Semifinals: Sinner d. Fils; Zverev d. Auger Aliassime. Final: Sinner d. Zverev. Semifinals: Sabalenka d. Andreeva; Rybakina d. Pegula.

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Raducanu ranking slide deepens as Boulter set to become British No 1

Raducanu’s ranking slide deepens as Boulter is set to replace her as British No 1.

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Emma Raducanu has not played since losing the Queen’s Club WTA 500 final in June, and her latest injury absence is now beginning to show in the rankings.

During that grass-court run in London, Raducanu suffered a stress fracture in his foot, an issue that forced her to withdraw from Wimbledon. She has since confirmed that her return will not come soon enough for the US Open, where the fifth anniversary of her famous title at Flushing Meadows will be noted this year.

Her time away from the tour has led to a steady loss of ranking points, and it is now confirmed that she will lose her status as British No 1 by the end of this week. Katie Boulter has endured a difficult run for results in recent months, but she is still set to move ahead of Raducanu when the WTA Rankings are updated next Monday and will begin the US Open as British No 1.

The damage may not stop there. Raducanu is also due to lose the 130 points she earned by reaching the third round of last year’s US Open, and with no clear sign of a return, there is a chance she could fall out of the top 100 by the end of 2026.

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That would leave her needing lower-level events, qualifying draws, or wild cards when she does return, extending a difficult stretch in her career.

Former World No 1 Andy Roddick addressed the situation on his Served podcast and offered a blunt assessment of the setback.

“We might not even see her for the rest of this year. It just stinks because she is so good and it’s just the stop and start of things,” said Roddick.

“You can’t get around a stress fracture, that’s not a pain tolerance thing at all. It has to heal or you are going to cause extreme long-term damage. It just stinks. She could be such a bright spot for the tours and it just seems like there are speed bumps all the time, which is just unfortunate.

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“She was playing great at Queen’s too, like she was going to blow the roof off of Wimbledon. She is so good and so injured all the time.”

“It’s got to be kind of depressing for her too. I keep thinking we are going to get six months where we are going to be able to go and play and do all the things and we are just not able to get it.”

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Alcaraz comeback caution grows as US Open plans remain uncertain

Alcaraz steps up practice, but Greg Rusedski warns rushing back for New York would be a big risk.

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Carlos Alcaraz is reportedly increasing the intensity of his practice work before the US Open, but he has also been advised not to hurry back in time for New York.

The defending champion has not played a competitive match since the wrist injury he suffered at the Barcelona Open in April. He then withdrew from this week’s Cincinnati Masters, saying he was not ready to return.

Although social media has shown him hitting with more force on court, a first match back in a best-of-five-set Grand Slam would represent a major test. That is the main reason former British No 1 Greg Rusedski believes caution should remain the priority.

“I think it’s a big risk. I think you’ve got to come out of a two-out-of-three-set match to start because it’s one thing to practice, it’s another thing to play a match,” said Rusedski on the next edition of his podcast, which will be released on Monday.

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He added that match pressure changes everything. “The adrenaline in the body, going hell for leather, you always go up with your tennis about an extra five, ten per cent from what you do in practice, no matter how hard you train.

“Plus, there’s the nerves and the expectation. You’re not gonna bounce back and come in with a three-out-of-five set match. I would be shocked if he plays the US Open. To me, he had to play Cincinnati to have a chance to go to the Open.

“So I would be surprised. After the US Open, I think possibly we might see him back, or maybe not even till next year.

“He’s not going to make the mistake with his risk. He doesn’t want to risk it. So I don’t see him still playing at the US Open, even though we’re seeing a lot of progress in his comeback.”

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Rusedski also raised questions over Jannik Sinner after the Italian withdrew from the Cincinnati Masters because of a knee problem.

“Well, if he’s not in New York early in the week before the tournament starts, I don’t see him playing,” he added.

He said the situation could leave the men’s event wide open, while also stressing the strain of the tour. “But health is your wealth, and these guys have to take the time. It just shows you how physical the tour is. Because Sinner looked like the guy who’s never going to break down, and he’s the one who’s having a knee problem now.

“I just want to stop talking about injuries. Come on. Let’s stop the injuries. Let’s all get healthy. Let’s get everybody back on board.”

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Djokovic’s Cincinnati setback raises fresh questions over his future

Djokovic’s Cincinnati defeat renewed doubts about his fitness, his future, and another Grand Slam run.

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Novak Djokovic’s latest match against Argentina’s Thiago Agustin Tirante offered another stark reminder of the physical challenge he is trying to manage as he extends his career. Midway through the contest, Djokovic turned to his team, and it was plain he was struggling to find answers to an issue that has troubled him for some time.

At 39, Djokovic is still producing a level that few players could match, especially against opponents often close to half his age. His durability and commitment have been central to his decision to keep playing into his 40th year, and his results over the past couple of seasons have supported that choice.

But injuries are only part of the story. The Serbian has also continued to battle problems when heat and humidity rise, and those conditions again exposed a vulnerability that can shape the biggest matches. He would likely have beaten Tirante comfortably had he not suffered that physical collapse in the daytime heat in Cincinnati.

After the defeat, Djokovic was candid about how he felt, saying: “It was not an enjoyable match for me, for sure,” he said after his latest defeat. “The way I felt… Not the first and I guess not the last time, but it is what it is.”

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He later described a health issue that has affected him for the past couple of years, adding: “It’s just a condition that I have, health-wise, that has been bothering me for the past couple of years. A lot of issues, especially when it is humid and it is hot.

“I did anticipate it, but there are all these things, like nerves and everything involved that make it worse, and that’s what happened.”

Djokovic also indicated he was unsure whether he would return to the Cincinnati Open, a notable shift from his usual parting line about coming back next year. As he continues to chase a 25th Grand Slam title, physical problems and the form of Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz keep narrowing the path. At this stage, Djokovic may need several factors to align before another major breakthrough becomes possible.

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