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Sabalenka’s US Open status and the Cincinnati equation
Sabalenka’s Cincinnati run could restore her US Open favourite status after a mixed season.
Aryna Sabalenka’s 2026 season has already delivered both standout success and a series of results that have complicated the picture around her status heading toward the US Open.
She opened strongly by capturing the Brisbane International title and then advancing to the Australian Open final. From there, she added Indian Wells and the Miami Open, a run that made her only the fifth woman in tennis history to complete the Sunshine Double.
Since that peak, though, the results have become less convincing. Sabalenka has not returned to a final after Miami, and she has exited before the quarter-final stage at the Italian Open, Wimbledon, and most recently the Canadian Open. That leaves her approaching the US Open without the clear favourite tag, even as she has won the tournament in the last two seasons.
Andy Roddick believes Cincinnati could change that quickly. Speaking on Served, he said, “The women’s side going into the US Open it’s hard to actually point to someone and say they’re the favourite. Yeah. And it’s if you do somehow get to a favorite it’s almost by subtraction. Do you know what I’m saying?
“Like Rybakina has looked pretty average. Jess [Pegula] is proven, but she took an early loss. You know, Iga [Swiatek] has looked better. A win against Kostyuk that I thought was a big one. Coco’s [Gauff] reliable at this point. Is she the favorite going into the US Open?
“It is wide open. Yeah. On the women’s side, unless someone catches a heater in Cincinnati, then, you know, obviously if Sabalenka goes and wins there, I think she instantly re-establishes herself as the favorite.
“She doesn’t need as much work to get back to favorite status as someone else, right? if she goes and wins something, you’re like, “Okay, great. We’re back.”
Sabalenka already has Cincinnati history on her side. She won the event in 2024 and followed that by taking the US Open title. Even so, the field around her is not standing still.
Swiatek is beginning to find rhythm under new coach Francisco Roig, while Eala has been the strongest women’s player since Wimbledon. Elina Svitolina, Belinda Bencic, and Gauff have also shown good form at the Canadian Open.
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Sinner’s Cincinnati withdrawal shifts the pressure back onto Djokovic
Sinner’s injury exit gives Djokovic a fresh opening in the race for a 25th Grand Slam.
Rumours around Jannik Sinner’s fitness proved true when the world No 1 withdrew from the Cincinnati Masters because of a knee injury, a development that immediately sharpens the focus on Novak Djokovic’s path toward another major title.
Sinner’s exit comes only weeks after Djokovic was beaten by the Italian in the Wimbledon semi-finals. That result followed Djokovic’s victory over Sinner in the Australian Open final earlier in 2026, a reminder of how quickly the balance at the top of men’s tennis can change. After Wimbledon, many felt Djokovic’s chance to win a 25th Grand Slam title had slipped away. Now, with the US Open approaching at the end of the month, the picture looks different again.
Carlos Alcaraz is also carrying uncertainty into New York after injuring his wrist at the Barcelona Open in April and not yet returning to competitive action. Sinner, meanwhile, said in a statement on the ATP website:
“After consulting with my doctors and my team, I have to announce that I need to withdraw from the Masters 1000 tournament in Cincinnati,” he said in a statement posted on the ATP website.
“My right knee has been bothering me and even though we have been working hard with my medical team, I have to accept that I’m not ready to compete yet.”
The Italian did not suggest in that statement that his US Open place is in danger, but doubts will remain if he reaches Flushing Meadows without full confidence in his knee over seven matches. Alcaraz is facing his own decision, and if either man is not at full strength, Djokovic may see the opening he has been waiting for.
At 39, Djokovic has shown repeatedly that he can still challenge anyone outside Sinner and Alcaraz at the biggest events. His confirmation that he will play Cincinnati for the first time since 2023 also suggests his shoulder issue is under control. He is level with Margaret Court on 24 Grand Slam titles and has not won a major since the 2023 US Open.
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Alex Eala’s surge brings attention, and a warning sign
Alex Eala’s rise has brought huge attention, but fatigue and injury risks now loom.
Alex Eala’s rapid climb has become one of the defining stories on the WTA Tour, but the Filipina has also acknowledged that the pace of her recent run is beginning to take a toll on her energy levels.
At 21, Eala has moved from promising talent to one of the sport’s most talked-about figures. Her victory over defending champion Iga Swiatek at Wimbledon, followed by her first WTA Tour title in Washington earlier this month, has elevated her profile in a way few players have experienced without a Grand Slam title or a place in the WTA top ten.
The response has been immediate and intense. In Toronto, Canadian Open officials have said Eala should be placed on the main show court because of the extraordinary demand to watch her play, and the crowds at her opening two victories have reflected that appetite.
For tennis, the surge is clearly a positive. For Eala, it also brings a heavy load. The attention, the expectation and the workload are all arriving at once, and she is competing more than at any previous stage of her professional career.
That makes the next stretch particularly delicate. She has already produced five wins in Washington and two more in Toronto, giving her valuable match time ahead of the US Open, where her new status is set to be showcased on a Grand Slam stage for the first time.
There is a strong chance she will be pushed into a headline night session at Flushing Meadows, which would mark another step in her rise. But the risk is obvious as well. Eala briefly worried observers in Toronto when she tweaked her ankle, and with more events to come before New York, any minor problem could become more serious.
Tennis offers no real escape for fatigue. Unlike team sports, there is no chance to step aside and recover while others absorb the workload. The constant pressure to keep winning can carry players past physical limits.
For now, the sport is enjoying the excitement around its newest star. The hope is that this wave of success continues without interruption, because Eala has already given the WTA Tour a powerful lift.
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Alcaraz out of Cincinnati as ranking pressure builds around Sinner and Zverev
Alcaraz is out of Cincinnati, while Sinner’s status remains uncertain and ranking pressure mounts.
Carlos Alcaraz will not defend his Cincinnati Open crown in 2026, and there are also question marks over whether Jannik Sinner can take part in the event at Mason.
Last year’s final did not unfold as expected despite the marquee matchup. Sinner, affected by illness, never found his rhythm, and Alcaraz surged to a 5-0 lead before the Italian retired.
This time, the meeting will not happen. The defending champion has withdrawn, with his team opting against any risk because his right wrist is still not fully recovered.
Because the ATP Rankings operate on a rolling 52-week cumulative system, points earned at the 2025 Cincinnati Open will come off when this year’s tournament begins. Players can then replace them with points collected across the 2026 event.
Alcaraz earned the full 1,000 points last year, but none of those will be available for him to defend now that he is absent. That leaves him set to drop from 8,160 points to 7,160, allowing Alexander Zverev to move ahead to No. 2 on 7,700 points without needing to win a match.
Sinner’s position is different. He is still listed in the main draw, even though he is dealing with a knee injury. He drops 650 points, but remains comfortably atop the rankings and is assured of staying No. 1 until after the US Open, even if he suffers early defeats in Cincinnati and New York.
Elsewhere, Zverev and Terence Atmane are both defending 400 points after reaching the semi-finals in 2025, while Felix Auger-Aliassime, Holger Rune, Ben Shelton and Andrey Rublev each face 200-point defenses. Taylor Fritz is trying to improve on last year’s fourth-round showing, Rafael Jodar has only 50 points to defend, and Joao Fonseca reached the third round in 2025.
Novak Djokovic will also return after missing the last two editions. The three-time champion starts on 3,760 points and could move ahead of Auger-Aliassime if he wins a fourth title and the Canadian exits early.
