Elena Rybakina has reduced the distance to Aryna Sabalenka after the Canadian Open, and Cincinnati now offers her a direct path to the No 1 ranking.

Sabalenka has held the top spot in the WTA Rankings for 95 straight weeks since October 2024. In total, she has spent 103 weeks as world No 1. Rybakina, meanwhile, is seeking that position for the first time and has sat at world No 2 since March.

Rybakina’s run to the final in Toronto, where she lost to Iga Swiatek, lifted her tally to 8,316 points. That left her 354 points behind Sabalenka, who exited in a surprise fourth round defeat to Ekaterina Alexandrova.

The Cincinnati Open, however, introduces another important ranking swing. Rybakina is defending 390 points after reaching the semi-finals last year, while Sabalenka is defending 215 points from her quarter-final result in 2025. At the start of the event, the Live WTA Rankings showed Rybakina on 7,926 points and Sabalenka on 8,455, a gap of 529 points.

That margin has stayed unchanged in the current Live Rankings after both players won their opening matches in Cincinnati and collected 65 points each. Sabalenka is now on 8,520 points, with Rybakina on 7,991.

For Rybakina to overtake her rival, she must at least reach the final. If she gets there, she would move to 8,576 points, but that would only be enough if Sabalenka loses in the third round. Should Sabalenka advance beyond that stage, Rybakina would need to win the title.

A Cincinnati crown would give Rybakina 8,926 points, enough to take No 1 if Sabalenka falls before the final. Sabalenka, though, can guarantee she keeps the top ranking by reaching the final, which would lift her to 9,105 points, out of Rybakina’s reach at this tournament.

Aryna Sabalenka began her Cincinnati Open run with a composed victory over Talia Gibson, winning 6-2, 7-6 to move past the disappointment of her early exit in Canada. In that tournament, Ekaterina Alexandrova ended her stay in the fourth round, but Sabalenka responded with a cleaner result here.

The world No 1 is also playing under the added weight of the rankings race. With only 529 points separating her from Elena Rybakina on the WTA Tour, Sabalenka is trying to protect the top position she has held for the past two seasons. This has not been one of her strongest years on tour, especially through the clay and grass swings, and she has not lifted a title since the Miami Open in March.

Sabalenka has also spoken this season about how she has handled those difficulties. In an interview with The Tennis Channel, she discussed the way she works with Anton Dubrov, Jason Stacy and Max Mirnyi. “If I see my team start criticizing me too harshly, I think we’d end up in a big fight, and it wouldn’t be a good fight. Every player receives information differently,” she said about communication with coaches Anton Dubrov, Jason Stacy and Max Mirnyi.

She added: “Early in my career, I was heavily criticized and grew up in that environment, but today we like to talk about what’s happening, put it into perspective, and make adjustments.

“In tough times, we get closer, have fun, have barbecues, and try to relax a bit because there’s a lot of pressure. I feel like my recipe for overcoming these big challenges is through conversation and having fun.”

Next up for Sabalenka is Wang Xinyu in the third round, their second meeting on the WTA Tour and first since 2022. Sabalenka won their previous match at the 2022 Australian Open after dropping the opening set. She leads Wang by 40 places in the rankings, with Wang currently No 41.

The section around Sabalenka has already opened up, with Barbora Krejčíková and Donna Vekic out. The winner of Sabalenka and Wang will face either Sara Bejlek or Alexandrova. Looking further ahead, Elina Svitolina appears the likeliest quarter-final opponent, Coco Gauff the most likely semi-final hurdle, and Rybakina could yet meet Sabalenka in the final. That would make the race for world No 1 even more significant.

Emma Raducanu has not played since losing the Queen’s Club WTA 500 final in June, and her latest injury absence is now beginning to show in the rankings.

During that grass-court run in London, Raducanu suffered a stress fracture in his foot, an issue that forced her to withdraw from Wimbledon. She has since confirmed that her return will not come soon enough for the US Open, where the fifth anniversary of her famous title at Flushing Meadows will be noted this year.

Her time away from the tour has led to a steady loss of ranking points, and it is now confirmed that she will lose her status as British No 1 by the end of this week. Katie Boulter has endured a difficult run for results in recent months, but she is still set to move ahead of Raducanu when the WTA Rankings are updated next Monday and will begin the US Open as British No 1.

The damage may not stop there. Raducanu is also due to lose the 130 points she earned by reaching the third round of last year’s US Open, and with no clear sign of a return, there is a chance she could fall out of the top 100 by the end of 2026.

That would leave her needing lower-level events, qualifying draws, or wild cards when she does return, extending a difficult stretch in her career.

Former World No 1 Andy Roddick addressed the situation on his Served podcast and offered a blunt assessment of the setback.

“We might not even see her for the rest of this year. It just stinks because she is so good and it’s just the stop and start of things,” said Roddick.

“You can’t get around a stress fracture, that’s not a pain tolerance thing at all. It has to heal or you are going to cause extreme long-term damage. It just stinks. She could be such a bright spot for the tours and it just seems like there are speed bumps all the time, which is just unfortunate.

“She was playing great at Queen’s too, like she was going to blow the roof off of Wimbledon. She is so good and so injured all the time.”

“It’s got to be kind of depressing for her too. I keep thinking we are going to get six months where we are going to be able to go and play and do all the things and we are just not able to get it.”