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Projected WTA seedings take shape for the 2026 US Open

The 2026 US Open WTA seedings are nearly set, with Cincinnati still able to change positions.

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With the 2026 US Open less than two weeks away, the WTA seeding picture is becoming clearer after the latest ranking movement in Cincinnati.

The women’s singles draw at each Grand Slam includes 128 players, with 32 seeded entrants. For New York, the cutoff for seeding is Monday 24 August, the final WTA Rankings update before the season’s last major. That leaves this week’s WTA 1000 event in Cincinnati as the final tournament that can still alter seeding positions.

Victoria Mboko, currently ranked 17th, would have been seeded in New York, but she has withdrawn because of a knee injury.

Aryna Sabalenka, who has held the WTA world No 1 ranking since October 2024, is set to be the top seed for the eighth straight Grand Slam. Elena Rybakina, world No 2, had a chance to move ahead of her if she reached the Cincinnati final, but her quarter-final defeat means she remains projected as the No 2 seed.

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Jessica Pegula, Coco Gauff and Mirra Andreeva are expected to occupy seeds three through five, with no ranking change for any of them. Linda Noskova and Karolina Muchova are currently placed sixth and seventh, while Iga Swiatek is projected at No 8. If Swiatek reaches the Cincinnati final, she would rise to sixth and move above Noskova and Muchova.

Further down the list, Marta Kostyuk is projected at No 11, though she can climb to ninth if she wins the Cincinnati title. Alex Eala is on course for a new career-high ranking of 18th next week, which would make her the No 17 seed in New York because of Mboko’s withdrawal.

Madison Keys, currently 23rd in the Live WTA Rankings, can still move ahead of Eala by reaching the Cincinnati final, while the title would lift her to No 14. Sara Bejlek, projected at No 30, faces Keys in the Cincinnati quarter-finals and could rise to 17th if she goes on to win the event.

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Rybakina’s Cincinnati Exit Ends Her Bid for World No 1

Rybakina’s Cincinnati quarter-final retirement ends her bid to overtake Sabalenka for No 1.

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Elena Rybakina’s run at the 2026 Cincinnati Open came to an abrupt end in the quarter-finals, and with it her chance to climb to world No 1 this week. The Kazakh retired while trailing 1-4 in the first set of her match against Iga Swiatek after an injury setback forced her to stop.

Rybakina later explained that a left ankle problem had been an issue for “a long period of time.” Speaking after the match, she said: “Of course, now I feel not the greatest, I couldn’t even push from the serve,” Rybakina said afterwards. “It’s painful to walk, and we will know more tomorrow when I do the MRI.

“It’s been bothering me for a long period of time. It was under control, but then after playing a lot of matches in Canada and coming here playing two matches in a row.”

The world No 2 started the tournament on 7,926 points in the Live WTA Rankings, leaving her 529 points behind Aryna Sabalenka, who began as the top-ranked player. That gap left the door open for Rybakina to move ahead, depending on how the Cincinnati event unfolded.

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Sabalenka’s surprise fourth-round loss to Sara Bejlek changed the picture and left her on 8,575 points in the Live WTA Rankings. At that point, Rybakina would have taken over at No 1 if she had reached the final in Cincinnati.

Her quarter-final retirement, however, means she will update to 8,141 points, leaving her 434 points behind Sabalenka. The 26-year-old will remain at No 2, while she stays 1,136 points clear of third-ranked Jessica Pegula, who is through to the semi-finals in Cincinnati.

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Rick Macci says Alcaraz and Sinner stand apart from the rest

Rick Macci explains why he sees Alcaraz and Sinner as a level above the ATP Tour field.

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Legendary coach Rick Macci has offered a clear view on the ATP Tour race at the top of men’s tennis, saying he does not believe any current player will match the level set by Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner.

Since the start of 2024, Alcaraz and Sinner have been the sport’s defining names, sharing five of the last 11 Grand Slam titles between them after Novak Djokovic collected his 24th and most recent major at the 2023 US Open. Their grip on the biggest stages has continued in 2026, with Alcaraz winning the Australian Open and Sinner taking Wimbledon. Alexander Zverev, meanwhile, captured his first Grand Slam title at Roland Garros.

Alcaraz now owns seven major titles, while Sinner has established himself as a five-time Grand Slam champion.

Among the younger names being discussed as possible long-term challengers are Rafael Jodar and Joao Fonseca. In an exclusive interview, Tennis365 asked Macci whether he believes those players can eventually compete with the two leaders of the game.

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Macci was willing to acknowledge their potential, but drew a firm line when it came to the very top. “Fonseca can definitely be in the mix,” said Macci. “A lot of those guys are going to go into the top five because they’re so young.

“But, the way Sinner plays – he has firepower off both sides, and he can produce quality off of quality. He’s hitting the ball 80 miles an hour eight times in a row, and holding the baseline.

“And his mind’s made of granite — that’s why he’s number one on the planet! He has the most important thing, he doesn’t have all the motor skills like Carlos.

“Alcaraz, he checks every box. The only time he gets in trouble is when he has too many options. But what a good situation… his toughest opponent, a lot of times, is in the mirror. It’s not the other guy.

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“So, these other guys can make a cameo and be top five, but no one that I see right now is going to be in that mix [with Alcaraz and Sinner], because they still have a few things not like them — whether it be a little different movement, or maybe not as strong at this or that.

“Whereas, Alcaraz checks every box, and the way Sinner plays, especially in 2026, you can’t penetrate the guy on any surface.”

Macci’s perspective carries particular weight. He has coached five future world No 1 players: Serena Williams, Venus Williams, Jennifer Capriati, Maria Sharapova and Andy Roddick.

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Concern grows over Jannik Sinner’s US Open chances after knee setback

Sinner’s knee concern has cast doubt over his 2026 US Open participation.

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A respected Italian tennis voice has raised doubts about whether Jannik Sinner will be fit in time for the 2026 US Open after the world No 1 was forced to step away from recent events because of a right knee issue.

Sinner has not played since his four-set victory over Alexander Zverev in the Wimbledon final on 12 July, a result that delivered his fifth Grand Slam title. He missed the Canadian Open, which was not a complete surprise after also opting out in 2025, but his withdrawal from the Cincinnati Open prompted greater concern.

Sinner said he pulled out of the Masters 1000 tournament because of discomfort in his right knee. “After consulting with my doctors and my team, I have to announce that I need to withdraw from the Masters 1000 tournament in Cincinnati,” the 25-year-old said.

“My right knee has been bothering me and even though we have been working hard with my medical team, I have to accept that I’m not ready to compete yet.

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Reports last week said he had undergone shockwave therapy treatment on the knee at JMedical in Turin. He has not yet offered a further update on his condition, leaving his participation at Flushing Meadows uncertain ahead of the tournament’s start on 30 August.

Guido Monaco, a former Italian player who now works as a commentator and analyst for Eurosport, suggested he is not convinced Sinner will appear in New York. “I’m not so sure about Sinner. It’s just a feeling. I don’t want to worry anyone or give anyone false hope,” Monaco told OA Sport.

Monaco added that if Sinner and his medical team believe hard courts could make the problem worse, the safest choice may be to stay away. He also said inflammation makes hard courts particularly difficult and noted that the absence of matches is not necessarily the main issue for Sinner, who has already won Wimbledon and taken his vacation.

For Monaco, the question may remain open until New York.

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