Alexander Zverev enters the 2026 US Open final as the player many expect to beat, with Rick Macci calling him the clear favourite and saying Ben Shelton will need something extraordinary to take the title.

Zverev, the reigning French Open champion, is contesting his third straight Grand Slam final this season. He was also in the Wimbledon final in July, where he lost to Jannik Sinner in four sets. This will be the German’s sixth major final overall. His previous championship matches at this level came at the US Open in 2020, Roland Garros in 2023 and the Australian Open in 2025, all of which ended in runner-up finishes.

Shelton, by contrast, is reaching this stage of a major for the first time. He had previously fallen in the semifinal round in his last two chances to move into a final.

The head-to-head record also leans heavily toward Zverev. He leads 5-0 against Shelton and has surrendered only one set in their meetings, that coming in their first match in 2024.

Macci, who has worked with Venus and Serena Williams, Maria Sharapova and Andy Roddick, believes the evidence points strongly in one direction. “The US OPEN MENS FINALS is 100% a ZVEREV match to lose,” he wrote on social media. “He is a heavy favourite and has been there done that.

“His serve is the Z FACTOR OR X FACTOR. His cutter on the deuce court is world-class, and German Jackhammer up the T delivers 138mph with gas.

“Most people want Big Ben to be last one standing at the end. If he pulls a rabbit or Gator out of his hat will be the first American since Roddick to win it and get off the mat.”

Shelton does have support from the New York crowd, along with a serve that remains one of his biggest weapons. Macci said the key for the American is to hold serve and handle pressure when rallies turn tense.

“Shelton has to fire up the American crowd to be wild and loud, jumping and pumping. He has a real shot to win this Slam; holding serve is the key and getting out of a jam,” Macci wrote.

He added: “Shelton has improved a lot mentally. He is more focused on most points and as a result competes better start to finish.”

Elena Rybakina’s victory over Aryna Sabalenka in the US Open final drew admiration from across the game, with Martina Navratilova calling the display “incredible” after the 27-year-old claimed her second Grand Slam title of 2026.

Rybakina overpowered her longtime rival 6-4, 5-7, 6-2 to secure her first US Open crown and underline the authority of her shot-making on the biggest stage. Against Sabalenka, she produced the sort of heavy, clean ball-striking that left little room for a response.

Speaking on Sky Sports, Navratilova was full of praise for the way Rybakina controlled the contest.

“She just played so well,” said 59-time Grand Slam champion Navratilova.

“It was an incredible performance and Sabalenka just couldn’t do anything to stop her. Aryna was on the back foot all through the match and it was a great performance.”

Navratilova also noted how unusual it was to see Sabalenka pushed into a reactive role.

“We do not see that. Usually it’s Sabalenka doing the bullying. I think that’s why Sabalenka didn’t know what to do. She’s used to dictating, to putting people on the defence, on their heels and rushing shots.

“Instead, it was all Rybakina doing that to her. And I did not expect that.

“It’s not that Sabalenka lost the match… Rybakina won it. She earned that win.

“It will be back to the drawing board for Sabalenka. What will she do next time if Rybakina is playing this well?”

Laura Robson also highlighted Rybakina’s composure in the moment, while Marion Bartoli pointed to the scale of the achievement given Rybakina’s previous best result in New York had been the fourth round. Bartoli added that the way she responded early in the third set was “absolutely extraordinary” and said, “She’s only missing Roland Garros now from completing a career Grand Slam.”

Frances Tiafoe and Karen Khachanov both saw their 2026 US Open runs end in the semi-finals, but each leaves New York with a significant rise in the rankings.

Tiafoe reached the last four at Flushing Meadows for the third time in five years, yet his bid for a first Grand Slam final was stopped by fellow American Ben Shelton. Khachanov, meanwhile, exited in his second semi-final appearance, falling to top seed Alexander Zverev.

Khachanov was beaten in straight sets, with Zverev winning 6-3, 7-6 (9-7), 7-6 (8-6) in two hours and 57 minutes. Even so, the German felt the contest was closer than the scoreline suggested.

“Straight-set win, but anything but straightforward in a way. He played incredibly well, fought incredibly well,” he said.

Zverev added: “Second and third set I think it’s more than obvious that they could have gone both ways. I just played a few points better here and there, and I’m happy with the win.”

Tiafoe, after previous semi-final defeats in 2022 and 2024, again met his match in Shelton. He made the stronger start, taking the opening set, but Shelton found another level to close out a 4-6, 6-3, 6-3, 7-5 victory and book his place in a maiden major final.

The ranking impact is substantial for both men. Khachanov began the 2026 season at No 17, drifted to No 50 by the time the tournament began, and will now climb back into the top 30. He has moved up 24 places to No 26 in the Live ATP Rankings, helped by a semi-final run that delivered 800 points against just 50 to defend, for a net gain of 750.

Tiafoe, who had previously reached No 10, has set a new career-high of No 8. His semi-final run, after a third-round exit last year, added 700 points and lifted him four places.

The prize money reflects the scale of those runs as well. Khachanov earns $2,800,000 from the semi-final, taking his 2026 total from $1,407,005 to $4,207,005. Tiafoe receives the same cheque, raising his 2026 earnings from $2,831,365 to $5,631,365.