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US Open men’s quarter-finals set after a series of major surprises

The US Open’s men’s quarter-finals have delivered major surprises, with Americans and outsiders rising.

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The men’s draw at this year’s US Open has produced an unexpected final eight, with several leading names already out of the tournament much earlier than many had projected. Novak Djokovic was eliminated in the opening round, while Felix Auger-Aliassime, Alex de Minaur, and Lorenzo Musetti all exited in the following round.

Carlos Alcaraz’s return from a wrist injury has drawn plenty of attention, but the tournament has also delivered a notable result for American men’s tennis on home soil. Three Americans have reached the quarter-finals, even though Taylor Fritz, Learner Tien, and Tommy Paul are not among them.

Here are Tennis365’s official predictions for all four men’s quarter-final matches at this year’s US Open.

Alexander Zverev vs Botic van de Zandschulp

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Alexander Zverev has put together an impressive season and has repeatedly benefited from injuries and below-par form among top seeds. The German lifted his first Grand Slam title at Roland Garros earlier this year, after Djokovic went out early and Alcaraz withdrew.

Zverev has looked less secure in New York. He needed five sets to defeat Lorenzo Sonego and Quentin Halys in his first two matches, before producing straight-sets wins over Alejandro Tabilo and Luciano Darderi.

Van de Zandschulp has reached his second Grand Slam quarter-final by beating Jan Choinski, de Minaur, Zizou Bergs, and Arthur Gea.

Prediction: Zverev will have too much for the Dutchman and should progress in straight sets.

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Karen Khachanov vs Alexander Blockx

Few would have expected Karen Khachanov and Alexander Blockx to be in this round, yet both have impressed. Khachanov arrived having lost three matches in a row, but he has beaten Felix Auger-Aliassime and Learner Tien.

Blockx has defeated Flavio Cobolli and Francisco Cerundolo, though injury concerns remain. He said he was close to retiring in his round of 16 match with Cerundolo.

Prediction: Khachanov is the clear pick, although Blockx’s physical condition could decide matters before the match is finished.

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Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen

An all-American quarter-final was possible, but this pairing would still have been difficult to predict. Tiafoe is the more established name at this stage, having reached the semi-finals in 2022 and 2024.

Michelsen, however, is on his best run at a Grand Slam and remains the only player in the men’s draw not to lose a set on the way to the quarter-finals. He has also taken advantage of an opening section of the draw that offered limited resistance, with only two seeded opponents and none from the top 15 of the ATP Tour rankings.

Prediction: Tiafoe should win, but Michelsen is likely to make him work hard for it.

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Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz

The standout match of the round is Shelton against Alcaraz. It is the highest-ranked quarter-final by combined rankings, and Alcaraz’s lack of match fitness after his wrist injury gives Shelton some hope.

That said, Shelton has never beaten Alcaraz, losing all three of their previous meetings. He has, however, handled his own path well, defeating Tallon Griekspoor, Hubert Hurkacz, Denis Shapovalov, and Stefanos Tsitsipas.

Prediction: Shelton’s serving should be enough to carry him through, with Alcaraz still building after four and a half months away.

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Rusedski urges US Open to address late-night scheduling after Shelton-Alcaraz thriller

Rusedski says the US Open must find a solution after Shelton-Alcaraz finished at 3:33am in New York.

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Former world No. 4 Greg Rusedski has pressed the US Open to rethink its scheduling after the quarter-final between Ben Shelton and Carlos Alcaraz created a fresh controversy.

Shelton came through a dramatic five-set battle, winning 6-7(5), 6-1, 6-3, 1-6, 7-6(7) in 4 hours and 28 minutes in Arthur Ashe Stadium. The match did not finish until 3:33am in New York, setting a new US Open record for the latest-ever conclusion.

Speaking on his Off Court With Greg Rusedski podcast, the 1997 US Open runner-up said the tournament needs a better answer to nights like this.

“There has to be some sort of solution,” said the 1997 US Open runner-up.

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He then outlined possible ways the event could reduce the risk of such extreme finishes. “I mean, the question mark [is] what do you do? Do you put one on Arthur Ashe [Stadium]. Do you put one on [Louis] Armstrong [Stadium] and sell two tickets at the same time for the quarter-finals?

“Because now that we’re in the semi-final stage, it’s really easy to organise everything, and this happened to be the longest day because every match went the distance.

“And I think that’s the the other option is you put the quarters, one on Louis Armstrong, one on Arthur Ashe, and you start them at the exact hour where [it’s] 7, 7:30, especially in the men’s singles, and then you figure out, or you put one men’s [and] one women during the day, and you mix it up that way and you find a solution.

“Finishing off at three o’clock in the morning, by the time Ben finishes his recovery and gets back to the hotel at 6 am… good luck getting to sleep as well.

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“And after you’ve done your massage, your treatment your eating, no practice, complete day off.

“And it gives Frances Tiafoe a little bit of an advantage in that respect, because when they come out the next day for the semis on Friday, recovery is going to be difficult. It’s not going to be easy.”

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Rusedski identifies Alcaraz tactical error after Shelton ends US Open run

Rusedski says Alcaraz’s deep return position may have cost him against Shelton in New York.

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Carlos Alcaraz’s quarter-final exit at the US Open has been framed as a contest decided by margins, and Greg Rusedski believes one of those margins was tactical. Ben Shelton outlasted Alcaraz 6-7(5), 6-1, 6-3, 1-6, 7-6(7) at Flushing Meadows to claim his first victory over the Spanish star and the biggest win of his career so far.

Alcaraz had his chances in a gripping final-set tiebreak, leading 5-3 and later 6-5, but he could not close out a match that lasted four hours and 28 minutes and ended at 3:33am on Wednesday. The world No 3 was the reigning US Open champion and was chasing a third title in New York, along with an eighth Grand Slam crown overall.

The 23-year-old was also appearing in only his first tournament back after the right wrist injury he suffered at the Barcelona Open in April. Speaking on his Off Court With Greg Rusedski podcast, Rusedski said Shelton’s willingness to attack the net made a clear difference.

“Carlos, you saw how far back he was on the return of serve, and Ben was willing to come forward, serve and volley, the movement, the volleys look good,” said the 1997 US Open finalist.

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“Thank God we have someone who comes to the net. If you want to stay on the baseline against Alcaraz, you’re going to be second best almost every time.

“We thought he (Alcaraz) was playing well enough to win, but Shelton proved us wrong and deserves to be back in the semi-finals.”

Rusedski then said Alcaraz may have given Shelton too much freedom by standing deep on return.

“I think it was a little bit of a tactical mistake,” said Rusedski.

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He added that the deeper position reduced time pressure on Shelton and allowed him more choices off serve, while also noting that Alcaraz’s long absence may have played a part in the narrow finish.

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Navarro and Noskova exit US Open quarter-finals with ranking gains

Navarro and Noskova fell in three-set US Open quarter-finals, but both gained ranking points and prize money.

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Emma Navarro and Linda Noskova both saw their 2026 US Open title bids end in the quarter-finals, yet each still leaves New York with useful ranking points after strong runs.

Both players pushed their matches to three sets before falling. Navarro, who was involved in an all-American contest, led early in the deciding set after breaking in game three to move 2-1 ahead, but Jessica Pegula recovered to win 6-3, 4-6, 3-6. Noskova also seized control in the final set, moving 4-2 up after a break in game five, but world No 1 Aryna Sabalenka responded to complete a 7-6 (7-1), 3-6, 7-6 (10-7) victory.

“After these matches when you’re so close… it kind of reminds you of where you are standing,” Noskova said after the defeat. “I will just try to keep going, you know. I feel great on court, which is always my main point, and ranking doesn’t really matter.”

Noskova did not move up the rankings, but her week in New York still marked a step forward. Her previous best at Flushing Meadows had been a third-round appearance, so reaching the quarter-finals represented new ground. She began the tournament at a career-high No 6 and will stay there, while remaining 415 points behind Mirra Andreeva, who could still extend that gap.

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The WTA’s rolling 52-week system means players lose the points they earned in the same event 12 months earlier. Noskova had 130 points to defend from a round-of-32 result in 2025, and the 430 points for reaching the last eight leaves her 300 points better off. Navarro was in the same position, also defending 130 points and earning 430, so she will likewise add 300 points to her tally. The 25-year-old has already climbed four places in the Live WTA Rankings to No 24.

There is also a financial boost for both. Noskova had earned $6,693,489 in 2026 before the US Open, with her career total standing at $11,254,108. After reaching the quarter-finals, she adds $780,000. Navarro, who had 2026 earnings of $1,038,485 and a career total of $6,679,094 before the tournament, will also take home $780,000.

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