Arthur Fils, sidelined since his grueling five-set victory over Jaume Munar at Roland Garros due to a stress fracture in his back, is poised to make his comeback at the National Bank Open. The timing of this injury was unfortunate as Fils had been delivering some of his best tennis to date.

His recovery status leaves some uncertainty about his form, but despite this, the potential benefits of backing Fils outweigh the risks compared to the current state of Pablo Carreno Busta. Carreno Busta secured a win recently as an underdog against Challenger-level player Liam Draxl. However, Draxl, despite an impressive 39-13 record in Challengers this year, has yet to claim an ATP-level match victory.

Carreno Busta’s recent performances reflect inconsistency, including a straight-set defeat to Gauthier Onclin at a Lyon Challenger. His ATP tour-level record stands at a concerning 4-9, coupled with a low break percentage of only 15.2%. These factors position Carreno Busta at a disadvantage, especially with his struggles on return games.

Fils, on the other hand, is expected to showcase a strong serving game and athleticism, despite moments where he may not be at full strength. His improvements in return play are notable, with a break rate increased to 23.6%, an area that previously hampered his game.

Their recent encounter in Barcelona saw Fils triumph in straight sets, 7-6 (6), 6-3, on Carreno Busta’s home ground. Given the faster conditions and neutral setting of the National Bank Open, a similar outcome seems plausible. This analysis supports laying 3.5 games with the 21-year-old Frenchman as a confident pick for this match.

Alexei Popyrin has revealed that winning his first Masters 1000 title at the Canadian Open in Montreal last year gave him a greater sense of achievement than his subsequent third-round victory over Novak Djokovic at the US Open. The Australian rose to the occasion by defeating a string of top-tier opponents including Ben Shelton, Hubert Hurkacz, Grigor Dimitrov, and Andrey Rublev en route to his breakthrough at the 2024 Canadian Masters.

Before that milestone, Popyrin’s only Masters 1000 quarter-final appearance was singular, and he had yet to compete in the main draw in Canada. In contrast, weeks later, he produced a significant upset by defeating the defending US Open champion Novak Djokovic in four sets, 6-4, 6-4, 2-6, 6-4.

“Against Novak, I think everybody always knew that I’m capable of producing a one-match stunner,” Popyrin told the ATP Tour website. “But I want to get back to winning the matches that I should be winning, stringing together wins and then giving a good account in the matches that I’m the underdog.”

He described his Masters triumph as “easily a bigger buzz than the US Open win over Novak because I put together six matches consecutively against Top 20 opponents and beat them all.” Popyrin emphasized his focus on consistency: “As you look for that consistency, you don’t want to take away anything from your big explosive game; it’s more about staying in rallies longer and waiting for the right opportunity rather than going for an unbelievable shot.”

This year, Popyrin is set to defend his Canadian title, beginning against world No. 638 Nicolas Arseneault in the tournament’s expanded two-week format. After a career-high ranking of world No. 21 following a strong French Open showing, he acknowledges the pressure of defending a large number of points. “I’d be lying if I said there’s no pressure [defending the Canada title],” he said. “Every year you have to go in defending points… Going into Toronto, I’m trying to not put too much pressure on myself and I know that once those points are off, I’ll have like a little bit of a weight lifted off my shoulders.”

Fellow Australian Alex de Minaur recently praised Popyrin’s athleticism, noting, “For a big, tall guy Pop’s movement is extremely good… he’s also got the ability to retrieve and defend with his legs, giving his opponents something else to think about.” Popyrin concurred, stating, “People see me as tall and lanky, very uncoordinated, and think I might be a slow mover. But I feel movement comes naturally to me, that I’m quite quick for a big guy and I can get out of corners quite easily. I definitely see it as a weapon of mine.”

On a personal note, Popyrin announced his engagement to longtime partner Amy Pederick in November 2024, with wedding details yet to be disclosed.

Holger Rune began his US Open lead-up at the National Bank Open in Toronto with a solid win over Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, claiming a 7-6(7), 6-3 victory. The fifth seed traded a tightly contested first set with Perricard before breaking serve in the second to close out the match in one hour and 15 minutes on Center Court.

Rune’s win was a measure of redemption after losing to the French big-hitter in Basel last season. Returning to competitive hard-court tennis after a first-round Wimbledon defeat, Rune had also recently started training with Andre Agassi, describing the partnership as an opportunity for mentoring. “He’s obviously an icon, so everybody knows him, his style and everything,” Rune noted about the collaboration that began before the Mubadala Citi DC Open.

Though a back injury kept Rune from competing in Washington, D.C., he displayed strong form against Perricard, who entered the tournament after defeating Shintaro Mochizuki in his Canadian Open debut and had previously bested Rune in Basel. The opening set featured 12 consecutive holds of serve, culminating in a high-stakes tiebreak in which Rune saved a set point at 7-6 to narrowly secure the set on his second opportunity.

In the second set, Rune secured the decisive break in the fourth game, capitalizing on a string of break points to take a 5-2 lead. Despite some resistance from Perricard, Rune served out the match with poise, finishing with an efficient 23 winners and only 10 unforced errors.