Day 1 at the BNP Paribas Open serves up three first-round matches that deserve attention. Jenson Brooksby and Alexei Popyrin meet in Stadium 4 in what should be a lively opening encounter. Both played in the UAE last week and, as the preview noted, “presumably they were able to evade the flight ban and make it out over the weekend.” Brooksby is No. 41 and Popyrin No. 44. Popyrin brings the bigger, heavier-spinning serve and a lethal forehand; Brooksby offers superior point construction and a mix of chops and sidespin aimed at making the 6’5″ Australian stretch and bend. A California native, Brooksby has reached the round of 16 at Indian Wells twice and should be comfortable in the desert conditions. Winner: Brooksby

A throwback rivalry resurfaces when Stefanos Tsitsipas faces Denis Shapovalov. The pair met four times between 2018 and 2020, when Tsitsipas was already in the Top 5 and Shapovalov was trending toward the Top 10. Two of those early matches were decided by 7-6 sets: 7-6 in the third in Miami in 2019 and 7-6, 7-6 at the ATP Cup in 2020. Shapovalov won both of those close matches and still leads the head-to-head 4-2. He is 4-0 on hard courts against Tsitsipas and won their most recent meeting a year ago in Miami, 6-2, 6-4. Now each arrives with reduced momentum: Shapovalov is No. 39, Tsitsipas No. 43, and neither is seeded. Tsitsipas is 9-5 this season; Shapovalov is 4-4 and reached the semifinals in Dallas. Both employ a one-handed backhand and an attacking brand of tennis that remains entertaining. Winner: Shapovalov

Sloane Stephens returns to the main draw on a wild card. Stephens, 32 and ranked 780th, missed most of last year with a stress fracture in her right foot. Stephens says her career keeps getting “weirder and weirder.” She last won a title in 2024 but is only 13-13 in the desert with a single quarterfinal in 13 attempts. Her opponent, 24-year-old Colombian Osorio, is 10-5 this year, owns a 125-level title, stands 5’7″, and beat Naomi Osaka here last year 6-4, 6-4 in a night match. Osorio is ranked more than 700 spots higher than Stephens at the moment. Winner: Osorio

For much of the past three seasons Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner have been the default top two when both enter the same event. They arrive at the BNP Paribas Open as the top seeds again, but the dynamic feels altered. Alcaraz, a two-time champion at Indian Wells, arrives as the favorite after winning the US Open and the Australian Open and an unblemished 12-0 start to 2026. Sinner remains the challenger; he has never reached the semi at this event and is the underdog in this pairing.

Everything has been coming up Carlitos. He’s 12-0 in 2026, and 27-1 at the last four majors. In his quarter the most obvious threats are Alex De Minaur, Alexander Bublik, Casper Ruud and Botic van de Zandschulp. De Minaur sits as the No. 2 seed in that section but is 0-6 against Alcaraz. Bublik and others have upset players here before, though none has reached a quarter to set up a meeting with Alcaraz. Wild Card: Michael Zheng. The New Jersey native and Columbia University senior takes on Arthur Cazeaux of France. First-round match to watch: Grigor Dimitrov vs. Terence Atmane. Quarterfinal: Alcaraz vs. De Minaur. Semifinalist: Alcaraz.

Novak Djokovic is in the field after a delayed announcement and will complicate the draw while he remains in the tournament. A four-time Indian Wells champion, he has not passed the fourth round in his last five attempts, dating back to 2017. Daniil Medvedev is coming off a Dubai title but faces travel uncertainty: he is stuck in Dubai due to the war in Iran. If he arrives, he should be a contender. Returning champion Jack Draper is also in the mix as he works back from an upper arm injury. Quarterfinal: Medvedev vs. Cerundolo. Semifinalist: Medvedev.

The Zverev-Musetti quarter looks open, with Félix Auger-Aliassime and Frances Tiafoe among the contenders. First-round matches to watch include Alexei Popyrin vs. Jenson Brooksby and Matteo Berrettini vs. Adrian Mannarino. In Sinner’s section he will be favored over most opponents, but Ben Shelton looms as a potential quarterfinal test. First-round match with 2019 vibes: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Denis Shapovalov. Quarterfinal: Sinner vs. Shelton. Semifinalist: Sinner.

Player Who Could Use a Win: Joao Fonseca. He’s 1-3 in 2026.

Aryna Sabalenka arrives at the BNP Paribas Open after a lengthy break, last competing in the Australian Open final. She skipped all of February and has not played since Melbourne. Sabalenka has never won Indian Wells but reached the final in two of the last three years, so expectations will be high even after the layoff.

Her early section offers a manageable path to regain rhythm. The first seeded opponent she could meet is Maya Joint, who has struggled to start 2026 and is 2-7 with four consecutive first-round losses. After that is Iva Jovic, the teen Sabalenka dismissed 6-3, 6-0 in Australia. A fourth-round meeting with Naomi Osaka is possible; they have not faced since the 2018 US Open. The quarter could feature Amanda Anisimova or Victoria Mboko. Anisimova is a question mark: she has mostly maintained Top 5 form in 2026 but is only 7-6 at Indian Wells and has not gone past the second round there since 2021.

Notable projected matches: Jovic vs. Sloane Stephens in round two, Anisimova vs. Emma Raducanu in round three. Projected quarterfinal: Sabalenka vs. Anisimova. Projected semifinalist: Sabalenka.

Alex Eala, seeded 21st, will open against Zhang Shuai or Dayana Yastremska. The 20-year-old Philippines native remains popular after her 2025 Miami breakout. If she advances she could face Coco Gauff. Gauff, playing in the United States for the first time in 2026, arrives with serving concerns and is defending fourth-round points from last year. Other seeds in that quarter include Eala, Shnaider, Noskova, Alexandrova, Tauson, Wang Xinyu, and Paolini. A first-round Gauff vs. Bianca Andreescu matchup is possible. Sleeper: Linda Noskova. Projected quarterfinal: Gauff vs. Paolini. Projected semifinalist: Gauff.

Jessica Pegula sits in the same section as Australian Open champion Elena Rybakina, who has beaten Pegula in their last three meetings, including the Melbourne semifinal. Pegula has been playing with growing assurance but is just 8-7 at Indian Wells. Projected quarterfinal: Rybakina vs. Pegula. Projected semifinalist: Pegula. Emma Navarro is listed as a player who could use a win.

Iga Swiatek is a two-time Indian Wells champion but has not won an individual title yet in 2026. She has a team win in the United Cup, skipped Dubai, and will need to find form. Potential opponents include Maria Sakkari, Karolina Muchova, Zheng Qinwen, Mirra Andreeva, and Elena Svitolina. Muchova won Doha, and Svitolina is 15-3 in 2026. Wild card Jen Brady opens against Antonia Ruzic. Projected quarterfinal: Swiatek vs. Svitolina. Projected semifinalist: Swiatek.