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2025 Canadian Open WTA Semifinals Set: Mboko and Tauson Reach Career Highs, Osaka Enters Top 30

Mboko and Tauson reach career-high rankings; Osaka cracks top 30 at the 2025 Canadian Open WTA.

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The women’s singles semi-final line-up at the 2025 Canadian Open is confirmed, promising an exciting finale in Montreal. Home favourite Victoria Mboko aims to upset Elena Rybakina in the first semi-final. Later, Naomi Osaka faces Clara Tauson in a showdown of power hitters.

The WTA rankings at this year’s Canadian Open present a complex picture due to the tournament’s calendar shift from 2024, delaying last year’s points drop. Despite this, notable ranking movements are anticipated after the event.

With Aryna Sabalenka maintaining a strong lead as world No. 1, her withdrawal from the tournament doesn’t impact her top position. The battle for the No. 2 ranking was poised between Coco Gauff and Iga Swiatek, while Jessica Pegula defended 1,000 points as the reigning champion.

Madison Keys is the only significant mover inside the top 10, rising two places. Emma Navarro tentatively enters the top 10, though changes are expected post-tournament as prior points drop off. With early exits from Gauff and Swiatek, the fight for the No. 2 spot moves to Cincinnati.

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All four semi-finalists will advance in rankings. Victoria Mboko, in her Canadian Open debut, is notable as one of just three wildcards in history to reach the semi-finals. Currently ranked No. 85, she is projected to leap to No. 48, potentially breaking into the top 40 with a win over Rybakina.

Naomi Osaka, returning to a WTA 1000 semi-final for the first time since 2022 Miami, rises from No. 49 to a projected No. 29. A final appearance or title would place her inside the top 25. Clara Tauson, after defeating high seeds Swiatek and Keys, stands to achieve a new career-high around No. 15, surpassing her previous best of No. 19.

Rybakina is steady at No. 11 but could enter the top 10 with a final or title win, and is assured a top 10 place once Navarro’s previous points drop.

Additional strong performances include Jessica Bouzas Maneiro, who reaches a high of No. 43, Suzan Lamens rising to No. 57, and Eva Lys moving up to No. 58. Conversely, Jessica Pegula is set to lose ground on the top three as the 2024 champion points expire, despite an early exit this year.

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Paula Badosa will fall to No. 12 following her tournament withdrawal due to injury, and Marie Bouzkova drops significantly in ranking. Caroline Dolehide and Taylor Townsend will also see notable ranking declines.

Analytics & Stats ATP

Connors: Djokovic Still the Pick for US Open, but Match Fitness Is a Concern

Connors backs Djokovic for US Open but warns lack of match play and fitness raise questions. Update

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Jimmy Connors offered a clear take on Novak Djokovic’s chances at the US Open while acknowledging questions about the champion’s preparation. Connors named Djokovic as his choice for the title at Flushing Meadows even as he outlined reasons for caution.

Djokovic will arrive in New York without a singles match since his straight-set loss to Jannik Sinner in the Wimbledon semi-finals. The 38-year-old has not spoken to address his withdrawals from the back-to-back Masters 1000 events in Toronto and Cincinnati. During the Wimbledon run, Djokovic appeared compromised after suffering an injury on match point of his quarter-final win over Flavio Cobolli.

Djokovic and Olga Danilovic have received a wildcard for the revamped US Open mixed doubles event, scheduled for August 19-20 in the week before the singles draw begins. He is chasing a record-extending 25th major and can tie Jimmy Connors, Pete Sampras and Roger Federer for the most US Open men’s titles in the Open Era with a victory in New York.

On his Advantage Connors podcast with his son Brett, Connors did not hide his doubts about Djokovic’s preparation. “I know that he got to the semis of Wimbledon, but his semi-final performance wasn’t up to his standard. So now he’s going to to into the US Open with no matches,” said the former world No 1.

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Connors pointed to the likely path through the draw and the difficulty of back-to-back matches against top opponents. “Now he’s not in the seeding department where… he’s gonna have to win three tough matches in a row now: a quarter, and then a semi and a final. A semi against Alcaraz or Sinner. This is assuming the draw comes out the way you would expect it to.

“Alcaraz or Sinner back-to-back, one or the other. That’s a tough task, especially three out-of-five sets, especially if it’s hot in New York.” Despite those concerns, Connors remained with Djokovic as his pick: “I am thinking of a 10-1 shot (Djokovic),” the eight-time Grand Slam champion. “You can’t count him out. That’s the only thing that’s worrying me: I wish he would go and at least get… even go to Cincinnati and play two or three matches.

“That is the only thing that worries me, that he left Wimbledon [in] the semis, which was a pretty good result, but he didn’t play in that match like he wanted to and lost in three straight.

“Then to take two and a half months off… he’s got a family, going on vacation, getting away and enjoying himself. Listen, you never know.”

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Analytics & Stats ATP Masters

Ben Shelton wins Toronto Masters 1000 and rises to a career-high No. 6

Ben Shelton wins Toronto Masters 1000, beats Karen Khachanov and rises to career-high No. 6 today. .

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Ben Shelton captured the biggest title of his career at the Masters 1000 event in Toronto, completing a come-from-behind 6-7 (5), 6-4, 7-6 (3) victory over Karen Khachanov in the final on Thursday night. The 22-year-old American’s title run produced immediate consequences on the ATP list.

Shelton rises from No. 7 to No. 6 on the ATP rankings, passing former world No. 1 Novak Djokovic for a new career-high. It is the fourth consecutive week in which he has set a personal best; he has reached a new career-high every week in the four weeks since Wimbledon. “BEN SHELTON’S CASCADE OF CAREER-HIGHS:” appears as a concise reflection of that run.

The new ATP rankings are backdated to this past Monday, August 4th. The next update will come after Cincinnati on Monday, August 18th. Shelton made his Top 10 debut a few weeks before Wimbledon, at No. 10, after a semifinal showing on the grass of Stuttgart. With a deep run at the Cincinnati Masters 1000 event he could break into the Top 5.

Shelton is now 330 points behind No. 5 Jack Draper. He also has 40 more points dropping on the next rankings than Draper, and the Brit is also not competing in Cincinnati this year.

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There was movement elsewhere in the rankings after Toronto. Karen Khachanov rises from No. 16 to No. 12 after reaching his second Masters 1000 final of his career. The 29-year-old, who won his first Masters 1000 title in Paris in 2018, reached a career-high of No. 8 the following year.

Alexei Popyrin made his Top 20 debut, rising from No. 26 to No. 19 after reaching the quarterfinals in Canada. The Australian was the defending champion at the event, winning it in Montreal a year ago.

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Analytics & Stats WTA

Sabalenka hits 50 weeks at No 1 as Victoria Mboko’s title reshapes WTA top 25

Sabalenka reaches 50 weeks at No 1; Mboko rises to No 24 after winning the Canadian Open. and Osaka.

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Aryna Sabalenka reached the 50-week milestone at No 1 in the WTA rankings after the Canadian Open, extending a run of 42 consecutive weeks at the top since her return to No 1 in October 2024. Sabalenka sits at 12,010 points and holds a 4,341-point lead over Coco Gauff, with Iga Swiatek a further 736 points back in third.

Sabalenka did not play the WTA 1000 event in Montreal but remained assured of keeping the No 1 position. She will face a significant points defence period before the US Open, with 3,000 points set to drop from her total (1,000 at the Cincinnati Open and 2,000 at Flushing Meadows), though she can recover those points by deep runs at those events.

The Canadian Open provided major movement elsewhere. Eighteen-year-old Victoria Mboko won her maiden title, having been awarded a wildcard and defeating Sofia Kenin, Coco Gauff, Elena Rybakina and Naomi Osaka en route to the final. Mboko beat Osaka 2-6, 6-4, 6-1 to complete her run. Her breakthrough lifted her from No 85 before the tournament to No 24, a rise of 61 places from her season start at No 333.

Naomi Osaka’s runner-up finish also produced a sizeable jump to No 25, up 24 places, and both young winners are now set to be seeded at the 2025 US Open.

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Other notable ranking changes: Clara Tauson climbed four places to a career-high No 15 after reaching the semi-final. Madison Keys moved up two places to No 6 and Elena Rybakina rose two spots to No 10. Paula Badosa slipped two places to No 12. Emma Raducanu fell six places to No 39 after a third-round exit but remains British No 1. Sonay Kartal sits at No 48 and Katie Boulter dropped seven places to No 50. Surprise quarter-finalist Jessica Bouzas Maneiro rose nine places to No 41.

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