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ATP Grand Slam US Open

Sinner vs. Alcaraz: Which Draw Is Harder at the 2025 US Open?

Sinner’s section looks kinder than Alcaraz’s, where an Opelka opener and Medvedev loom. & Djokovic.

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Since the clay swing five months ago the men’s tour conversation has largely centered on Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz. Both have met here before and produced one of the tournament’s most memorable late-night classics. As the Open begins, the question is whether both can reach a third consecutive major final and which of the two has the tougher route.

Alcaraz’s section carries a sharper early test. He opens against 6’11” Reilly Opelka, ranked 66th and working his way back after a lengthy injury layoff. As a self-described servebot, Opelka can be the archetype of an opponent who makes early rounds feel like a crapshoot; his serve frequently forces tiebreaks and places heavy pressure on returners. Alcaraz and Opelka have never met, but Opelka arrives with recent wins over Alex de Minaur and Tomas Machac. Opelka’s size also makes best-of-five a difficult assignment; his career major record stands at 16-19.

Beyond that opener, Alcaraz could face Daniil Medvedev in the fourth round and either Ben Shelton or Casper Ruud in the quarterfinals. If he advances, a semifinal meeting with Novak Djokovic is possible. Djokovic beat Alcaraz at the last hard-court major in Melbourne.

Sinner’s path is comparatively steadier. He does not face an Opelka-style serve in round one and is projected to meet either Alexander Zverev or Alex de Minaur in the semifinals. The higher seeds in his quarter include Tommy Paul, Alexander Bublik, Lorenzo Musetti, Flavio Cobolli and No. 5 Jack Draper. Only Bublik has a recent win over Sinner, and Sinner defeated Draper in straight sets in the semifinals here last year.

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Novak Djokovic begins his bid for a 25th major against Learner Tien. The 38-year-old has made the semifinals at all three majors in 2025 but has said he may not have many chances left at No. 25. He skipped the Toronto and Cincinnati lead-ups and has suggested he saves his best for the majors. His projected quarterfinal opponent is fourth-seeded Fritz, who reached the final last year but is 0-10 against Djokovic. If either Sinner or Alcaraz is upset, Djokovic’s draw could open further.

ATP Grand Slam US Open

Auger-Aliassime endures four-hour battle to reach US Open semifinals

Auger-Aliassime outlasted Alex de Minaur in 4 hours 10 minutes to reach the US Open semifinals

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Felix Auger-Aliassime reached the US Open semifinals for the second time, the Canadian producing a gruelling victory to advance after a season that has blended promise and setbacks.

By early February he had added two trophies and recorded a runner-up finish in Dubai. By July, a second-round exit at Wimbledon left him 2-3 across the first three majors. At Flushing Meadows he found a response, outlasting Alex de Minaur in a four-hour, 10-minute contest to move into the final four.

Eighth-seeded De Minaur held a set point that would have given him a two-set lead, but Auger-Aliassime fought back for a 4-6, 7-6 (7), 7-5, 7-6 (4) victory. The No. 25 seed also recovered from 2-5 down in the fourth set to avoid a deciding set and completed the win after more than four hours on court.

“Four years ago, it feels like more. It was a tough couple of years, but it feels even better now to be back in the semifinals,” Auger-Aliassime said during his on-court interview. He later added: “It’s been an amazing tournament so far. It’s not over,” and “There’s still some tennis to play and the biggest challenges are yet to come. That’s what I live for, that’s what I train for. So I’m going to show up and be ready for my match on Friday.”

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The run at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center followed a quarterfinal showing at the Cincinnati Open, where none of his three wins involved beating a Top 50 opponent. In New York he has taken down a pair of Top 10 opponents, including a four-set victory over third-ranked Alexander Zverev in the third round. Before this tournament, Auger-Aliassime’s last completed win against a Top 10 player came at the season-opening United Cup when he rallied past Taylor Fritz.

This return to the last four feels different from his first trip at the same venue. In 2021 he led Carlos Alcaraz 6-3, 3-1 when his then teenage opponent was forced to retire due to an adductor injury in his coming out party on the major stage. The 25-year-old Montreal native now prepares for a challenging semifinal bracket; world No. 1 and reigning champion Jannik Sinner meets Lorenzo Musetti for the other semifinal spot during Wednesday’s night session inside Arthur Ashe Stadium.

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Analytics & Stats ATP US Open

Ferrero: US Open semi-final timing could be a decisive edge for Alcaraz

Ferrero says US Open semi-final timing could help Alcaraz; Djokovic carries injury concerns. Update

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Juan Carlos Ferrero believes match timing at the US Open could tilt the semi-final between Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic. The pair meet in the last four in New York for a ninth career semi-final clash, with Djokovic leading their head-to-head 5-3 and holding a 3-0 record on hard courts.

Alcaraz arrives at the semi-final without dropping a set in the tournament and with an exceptional run of form, having won 35 of his last 36 matches, the only loss coming to world No 1 Jannik Sinner in the Wimbledon final. Ferrero, a former world No 1 and his coach since 2019, stresses that form alone does not make his pupil the favourite. “Carlos is playing spectacularly, with a lot of confidence, but I don’t dare say that he is a favourite,” he said. “Novak will give everything, it will be very tough.

“What happened in Australia was painful because of how everything happened, but the conditions will be different here.

“We played there at night and that favored him a little, with a lower ball bounce.

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“The ball was flatter and that suited him better.

“Here, I think that if we play during the day, it will be better for us.”

Ferrero has also highlighted Alcaraz’s mental progress in New York. “We have always known that he was very good tennis-wise, but on a mental level I am seeing him better than ever,” the Spaniard stated. “In this tournament he is showing that consistency of not having ups and downs and reaching the potential that we saw he could have.

“He is still very young, despite the experience he has. It is in the process of maturing and improving. Little by little he was giving details of improving, but in this tournament is where he is being most noticed.

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“He barely makes five, six or seven errors per set. That is the difference compared to before.”

Djokovic, the 24-time Grand Slam champion, has battled physical issues at the event, taking medical time-outs for shoulder, foot and back concerns. After his quarter-final win over Taylor Fritz he admitted concerns about freshness. “Good thing about the schedule is now that I have two days without a match, so that helps a lot,” he said.

“So I don’t feel very fresh at the moment. But hopefully in two days will be different.

“It’s not going to get easier, I tell you that. But look, as I said, I’m going to try to take one day at a time, really take care of my body, try to relax and recover.

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“The next couple of days is really key for me to really get my body in shape and ready to battle five sets if it’s needed.

“So I just would really love that, would love to be fit enough to play and to play, you know, potentially five sets with Carlos. And I know that my best tennis is going to be required, but I rise to the occasion.

“Normally, I like to play the big matches on a big stage. It’s just that I’m not really sure how the body is going to feel in the next few days. But, you know, I’m going to do my very best with my team to be fit for that.

“There’s going to be a lot of running involved, that’s for sure. I mean, there’s not going to be short points.”

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Cervara: Ending an eight‑year partnership with Medvedev was necessary to change the energy

Cervara says split with Medvedev was to change ‘energy’ after poor results and rising risks. Cevara.

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Gilles Cervara has said the decision to end his eight‑year working relationship with Daniil Medvedev was taken because continuing in the same circumstances posed a risk to both parties.

The split was announced on social media days after Medvedev was upset by Benjamin Bonzi in a five‑set first‑round match at the US Open. The duo had worked together since the summer of 2017, a period that produced a world No 1 ranking, a Grand Slam title, six Masters 1000 trophies and a Nitto ATP Finals crown.

“Results are the gauge of professional success, and even the measure of the player‑coach relationship in tennis,” began Cevara, in an exclusive interview with Tennis Majors.

“They hadn’t been satisfactory for some time. The question is why, and I’ve been thinking about it for a long time.

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“After his first‑round loss at Wimbledon this year (to Benjamin Bonzi), I became certain that if results didn’t rebound during the summer, something needed to change.

“That ‘something’ was the energy around Daniil. So we needed to change the people involved.

“The ‘people’ concretely meant either me, or the fitness trainer Éric Hernandez, or both (Éric Hernandez also announced that the Medvedev project was ending for him). I kept thinking about it.

“I talked to Daniil after the US Open. He himself raised the idea: ‘After eight years, maybe it’s time for something different.’

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“I said to him: ’Listen, that’s exactly what needs to happen in my opinion, because I don’t think I can continue to make you perform in the energy state we’re in right now. You need something new, something different, to transform.’”

Cervara traced the decline in results partly to the aftermath of the 2024 Australian Open final defeat to Jannik Sinner, when Medvedev surrendered from a two‑set lead. Since the 2023 Rome Masters the player has not won a title and has spent time outside the world’s top 10, currently listed at No 13 and due to drop to 17. This season he has recorded one Grand Slam match win, at the Australian Open.

“I think I thought of it before him,” he added. “I talked about it with his agent in Cincinnati. I was ready. In a frank assessment of the situation, I didn’t want to put Daniil in a corner—or myself.

“If I had asked him, ‘Do you think you can carry on like this?’ and he’d said ‘yes,’ that would have been a risk—a huge risk.

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“We would only have had three months to validate that choice. You can keep working well while waiting for better results, of course.

“But starting a new season like that puts a sword of Damocles over your head—you have zero room for error.”

Cervara also reflected on team changes earlier in 2024, when former world No 6 Gilles Simon joined as an additional coach in February while Cervara planned to travel less. He described the situation as more complex than the results alone and said attempts to rebuild after Australia had not restored the previous structure. Medvedev is scheduled to return to the tour at the ATP 250 event in Hangzhou.

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