Analytics & Stats US Open WTA
US Open women’s singles: quarter-final projections and a Swiatek–Sabalenka final?
Sabalenka, Swiatek and others head into a testing US Open draw with detailed quarter-final forecasts
With the first three majors complete, the US Open remains as the final Grand Slam of 2025 and a fresh test for the season’s leading names. The women’s draw combines established contenders with several rising threats, and these are the quarter-final paths that look most likely.
Projected QF: (1) Aryna Sabalenka vs (7) Jasmine Paolini
Sabalenka has won three titles in 2025 and has been one of the season’s most consistent performers, yet a Grand Slam title has eluded her this year. As world No 1 and defending US Open champion, she arrives determined to go deep. Her first major challenge could be a round-four meeting with 14th seed Clara Tauson, who beat her in Dubai, though Tauson opens against Alex Eala. Paolini has returned to form after a run to the Cincinnati final, but Grand Slam results in 2025 have not yet produced a quarter-final for her. Her path includes potential early tests against Iva Jovic, McCartney Kessler and Elena Rybakina.
Projected QF: (4) Jessica Pegula vs (5) Mirra Andreeva
Pegula reached the final here twelve months ago but has struggled for form this summer, with significant ranking points to defend. The fourth seed may face Dayana Yastremska and Belinda Bencic on her route. Andreeva has played limited tennis this summer, losing early in Montreal and withdrawing from Cincinnati, yet her big-event consistency in 2025 is notable. Her draw could include Jelena Ostapenko and Emma Navarro, who Andreeva beat convincingly at Wimbledon.
Projected QF: (6) Madison Keys vs (3) Coco Gauff
Gauff is the reigning French Open and WTA Finals champion but enters New York amid service issues. That has led to a big coaching change, with Gavin MacMillan replacing Matt Daly, though the 2023 US Open champion still faces a testing draw. Keys is a former finalist and multiple semi-finalist here and could meet Karolina Muchova in round four; Muchova opens against Venus Williams in a notable first-round match.
Projected QF: (8) Amanda Anisimova vs (2) Iga Swiatek
Swiatek arrives following Wimbledon and Cincinnati titles and has a favourable draw on paper. She could meet Anna Kalinskaya and Ekaterina Alexandrova before a quarter against Anisimova, who recently suffered a double-bagel defeat to Swiatek at Wimbledon but has steadied since. Anisimova may face Sofia Kenin and Elina Svitolina, the latter a 2019 semi-finalist here.
Predictions:
Sabalenka def Paolini
Andreeva def Bencic
Keys def Gauff
Swiatek def Svitolina
Sabalenka def Andreeva
Swiatek def Keys
Swiatek def Sabalenka
Analytics & Stats
Cirstea reaches 20 tour-level wins faster than ever in final season
Cirstea reached 20 tour-level wins in 2026 faster than ever, after announcing 2026 as her last year
Sorana Cirstea reached a career milestone on Friday night, logging her 20th tour-level victory of 2026 and doing so earlier in the season than at any point in her two-decade career. The achievement came amid a campaign that has grown stronger since she announced in the off-season that 2026 would be her final year on tour.
Cirstea recorded the landmark win by defeating Anna Bondar 7-6 (2), 6-2 in the quarterfinals of the clay-court event in Rouen, France. That victory pushed her to 20 tour-level victories for the season faster than she ever previously managed. Her prior earliest 20th win came in 2013, when she reached the mark during the grass-court season in Birmingham.
The Romanian’s form this year has been notable. Now 20-6 in 2026, Cirstea has advanced to her second WTA semifinal of the season. Earlier in the year she captured the fourth WTA title of her career at the indoor hard-court event in Cluj-Napoca, Romania in February, which was also her first career WTA title on home soil. Observers traced the momentum back to a strong second half of 2025, after which she made the decision to make 2026 her swan song on the circuit.
The Rouen quarterfinal win underlined a consistency that has defined Cirstea’s campaign: effective conversion of tight moments, shown in a first-set tiebreak, followed by a more decisive second set. The result keeps her on course for another deep run at the clay-court event and extends a season that has already produced a title, multiple semifinals and a personal-best pace to 20 tour-level victories.
As the season unfolds, Cirstea’s earlier-than-ever arrival at this milestone will remain one of the defining storylines of her final year on tour.
Analytics & Stats Equipment
Monica Puig on Wearables: Embrace the Data, Let Teams Manage the Noise
Monica Puig says players should accept wearable data while letting teams manage the details. Indeed.
Monica Puig has approached performance from many angles: an Olympic gold medalist who built her game on relentless athleticism and “Pica Power,” a player who retired in 2022 and then turned to marathons, triathlons and IRONMAN events. Now an analyst and self-described tech enthusiast, she has tested WHOOP, Garmin and COROS while training and recovering.
“I’ve tried it all!”
Her experience with continuous tracking shaped how she used the information. “I did wear the WHOOP for a while, but that was back before you could wear it on a match court. I know there’s been some back and forth about whether you can at certain tournaments.
I would wear the WHOOP, but I wouldn’t take the information for myself. My fitness trainer was the one who had the app on his phone and had my WHOOP paired to his phone…” Puig said she handed data to the people charged with her body care to avoid letting numbers skew her mindset.
“It’s a fine line. If you’re really responsible with the information that you receive you can kind of just treat it as it is, which is a number…
If you’re the type of player who gets a little bit too obsessed with the numbers, hand it off to your team, like I did, and have them kind of make the adjustments. Let someone else take care of it, then you just kind of go along for the ride.
Because the numbers are very good for certain things, but there are also metrics that don’t really help you.”
On the measures she found most valuable, Puig emphasized recovery and early illness detection. “Knowing your fatigue levels… I thought WHOOP was really great with this knowing when you’re getting sick. And showing you how the body reacts differently, whether you drink or not, whether you hydrated enough, whether you had a heavy meal or not—all those things can play a part into your recovery.”
She supports allowing devices in matches so teams can analyze how an athlete responds under pressure. “Absolutely. I think it’s really essential, because you can also see the way that your body handles itself in a pressure situation. Your body reacts differently from a match that you win in an hours, versus a match that could go for three hours. And obviously it reacts differently in a match than in practice.
There are so many different factors, and I think nowadays having the information helps you prepare. There’s no reason why it should be concealed from players.
It’s not like the player is looking at that information when they’re playing. It’s not like your coach is going to be saying, ‘Oh my gosh your heart rate is X! You need to get it down to Y!’”
She added that showing biometric data in competition has precedent. “I would love that, and I think the WTA did do that when WHOOP was first a partner (back in 2021).
I’ve seen it in golf a couple of times, where it would show a golfer’s heart rate before they teed off. Then you would be like, OK the heart rate is maybe at 130. They’re feeling the stress. Or if the heart rate was in the 90s, OK they’re feeling alright.”
Analytics & Stats Governing Bodies Miami Open
Inside the Recovery Revolution: How Tech Is Reshaping Tennis Rest and Preparation
Recovery in tennis: wearables, sleep systems and biometrics are changing how players prepare. daily.
Elite tennis now treats recovery as a competitive advantage. From screenless wearables to temperature-controlled sleep systems, players and teams are quantifying readiness in ways that would have seemed futuristic only a decade ago.
Aryna Sabalenka’s Sunshine Double run offered a clear example. Using WHOOP, she logged consistently high recovery scores through the Miami Open, with WHOOP CEO Will Ahmed later noting, “This is very hard to do given the strain of the matches and the pressure of the finals. Impressive,” Ahmed wrote. WHOOP’s morning recovery metric combines heart rate variability, resting heart rate, sleep quality, and respiratory rate to estimate preparedness for strain.
Long before wearables were common, Novak Djokovic invested in recovery innovation. He used the CVAC Pod and more recently the Regensis system. Djokovic also entered the wearable space by partnering with Incrediwear on therapeutic sleeves. Taylor Fritz has taken a different route, prioritizing sleep with a high-tech Eight Sleep mattress cover that adjusts temperature and records biometric data. “It makes a huge difference for me when I have it,” Fritz said. “It’s great to see all the data. I feel like I sleep a lot better.” He added, “It’s not easy to bring,” he added. “If it’s a big tournament, like a Grand Slam week or something, then we’ll have one ready where I’m going. This week (in Miami), obviously it’s just at home. Otherwise, sometimes I just don’t have it.” Fritz became an Eight Sleep investor in 2024, and Djokovic collaborated with Incrediwear in 2026.
The sport’s governing bodies have adapted unevenly. The WTA partnered with WHOOP in 2021, while the ATP approved wearables across its tours in 2024. Grand Slam rules remain separate: at the 2026 Australian Open, players were asked to remove WHOOP devices mid-tournament, affecting athletes including Aryna Sabalenka, Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner. “There is certain data we would like to track a little bit on court,” Sinner said afterward. “It’s not for the live thing. It’s more about what you can see after the match.”
Voices inside the sport warn about information overload. “It’s not like the player is looking at that information when they’re playing,” Puig said. “It’s not like your coach is going to be saying, Oh my gosh your heart rate is X! You need to get it down to Y!”
“It’s more so just information that they can take to better themselves for the upcoming days.” Early research, including a 2025 study of 100 professionals, found measurable gains in stress management and recovery. Still, players stress that basics remain essential: “Of course, you need the ice bath and stretching and massages,” she said. “But there’s so much you can do off court, even at the hotel, that can make a big difference.” Looking ahead, predictive models and AI could personalize recovery further, but the underlying routines will endure.
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