Analytics & Stats US Open WTA
US Open women’s singles: quarter-final projections and a Swiatek–Sabalenka final?
Sabalenka, Swiatek and others head into a testing US Open draw with detailed quarter-final forecasts

With the first three majors complete, the US Open remains as the final Grand Slam of 2025 and a fresh test for the season’s leading names. The women’s draw combines established contenders with several rising threats, and these are the quarter-final paths that look most likely.
Projected QF: (1) Aryna Sabalenka vs (7) Jasmine Paolini
Sabalenka has won three titles in 2025 and has been one of the season’s most consistent performers, yet a Grand Slam title has eluded her this year. As world No 1 and defending US Open champion, she arrives determined to go deep. Her first major challenge could be a round-four meeting with 14th seed Clara Tauson, who beat her in Dubai, though Tauson opens against Alex Eala. Paolini has returned to form after a run to the Cincinnati final, but Grand Slam results in 2025 have not yet produced a quarter-final for her. Her path includes potential early tests against Iva Jovic, McCartney Kessler and Elena Rybakina.
Projected QF: (4) Jessica Pegula vs (5) Mirra Andreeva
Pegula reached the final here twelve months ago but has struggled for form this summer, with significant ranking points to defend. The fourth seed may face Dayana Yastremska and Belinda Bencic on her route. Andreeva has played limited tennis this summer, losing early in Montreal and withdrawing from Cincinnati, yet her big-event consistency in 2025 is notable. Her draw could include Jelena Ostapenko and Emma Navarro, who Andreeva beat convincingly at Wimbledon.
Projected QF: (6) Madison Keys vs (3) Coco Gauff
Gauff is the reigning French Open and WTA Finals champion but enters New York amid service issues. That has led to a big coaching change, with Gavin MacMillan replacing Matt Daly, though the 2023 US Open champion still faces a testing draw. Keys is a former finalist and multiple semi-finalist here and could meet Karolina Muchova in round four; Muchova opens against Venus Williams in a notable first-round match.
Projected QF: (8) Amanda Anisimova vs (2) Iga Swiatek
Swiatek arrives following Wimbledon and Cincinnati titles and has a favourable draw on paper. She could meet Anna Kalinskaya and Ekaterina Alexandrova before a quarter against Anisimova, who recently suffered a double-bagel defeat to Swiatek at Wimbledon but has steadied since. Anisimova may face Sofia Kenin and Elina Svitolina, the latter a 2019 semi-finalist here.
Predictions:
Sabalenka def Paolini
Andreeva def Bencic
Keys def Gauff
Swiatek def Svitolina
Sabalenka def Andreeva
Swiatek def Keys
Swiatek def Sabalenka
Analytics & Stats ATP Grand Slam
Alcaraz and Sinner: a third straight major final and the questions New York poses
Alcaraz and Sinner meet in a third straight major final, testing form, fitness and tactical edge now

Two players arrive in the same Grand Slam final for a third consecutive major, and their recent run together has altered the landscape. They have contested five straight events in which both entered and both reached the championship match: Rome, Roland Garros, Wimbledon, Cincinnati and the Open. That sequence includes three Slams and three surfaces.
Jannik Sinner tried to deflect a personal edge question with a practical answer. “On court we like seeing each, you know, because it means that, considering our ranking, that we are doing well in the tournament.”
At the Open the dynamics have been notable. Carlos Alcaraz reached this final without dropping a set for the first time in a Slam run, and on Friday he ran Novak Djokovic ragged over three mostly uncompetitive sets. “Probably I’m just getting mature,” Alcaraz said.
Sinner’s path was more variable. He dropped two-set contests to Denis Shapovalov and Felix Auger Aliassime, yet he dismantled Alexei Popyrin, Alexander Bublik and Lorenzo Musetti. He required more than three hours to subdue Auger Aliassime on Friday night and said he felt a “twitch” in his abs that slowed his serve and forced him to get treatment off court. Sinner has been No. 1 for the last 65 weeks, is the defending champion, and has won the last three hard-court majors. He beat Alcaraz in their most recent completed match, the Wimbledon final, and owns a 20-8 record in finals and 17-6 in hard-court finals.
There are strong arguments for both men. Alcaraz leads their head-to-head 9-5 and is 6-2 on hard courts, and he has won 45 of his last 47 matches while improving his serve over the summer. Sinner has a record of bringing Alcaraz to peak levels; in Beijing and Roland Garros their matches reached final-set tiebreakers. At Wimbledon the script changed, with Sinner taking the early initiative, hitting more winners and coming to the net far more often. Alcaraz admitted: “At some points I didn’t know what I had to do in the match because from the baseline I was feeling he was better than me, and I couldn’t do anything about it,” adding, “I think the big key was the second serve. He was returning really well the second serve. Thanks to that, he was in the position to attack the second ball every time.”
Alcaraz says he learns from these encounters, and the likely tactical themes for the final are clear: seize initiative early, approach the net more, vary with drop shots and target the second serve. Which approach will win out on Sunday remains the central question.
Analytics & Stats ATP
Rick Macci: Why Novak Djokovic is likely to continue after the 2025 US Open
Macci: ‘I think he’ll keep playing’ — Djokovic likely to continue while he still loves tennis 2025

Novak Djokovic’s run at the 2025 US Open ended in the semi-finals with a 6-4, 7-6(4), 6-2 defeat to Carlos Alcaraz. The loss completed a year in which Djokovic reached the semi-finals at all four Grand Slam events, a notable feat as he turned 38 in May.
Across those four major semi-finals in 2025, Djokovic was unable to take a set, with physical limitations repeatedly noted. Before New York he had suffered straight-set semi-final defeats to Jannik Sinner at both Wimbledon and the French Open. At the Australian Open he retired after losing a gruelling first set to Alexander Zverev when a hamstring issue — sustained in his quarter-final win over Alcaraz — forced him out.
The Serbian’s most recent Grand Slam victory remains his 24th, earned at the 2023 US Open. Since the start of 2024 he has claimed two titles: last year’s Paris Olympics and the 2025 Geneva Open.
Rick Macci offered a perspective on Djokovic’s future and probability of retirement. Macci, who coached Venus and Serena Williams during their childhood, said: “I think he’ll keep playing simply because, once again, kind of like Venus [Williams] — but obviously it’s different – he just loves the competition,” said the American.
He added: “Why would you want to put your body through that, get up every day, he has a family… you’re not doing it for a paycheck! He just loves the competition. And I think if he feels he can win, okay, he’ll continue to play.
“Now, Roland Garros, I don’t know. I just think because the rallies are longer, you gotta bring your breakfast, lunch and dinner on red clay. It’s a little different situation. Grass, to me, was his best shot.
“But yeah, I think he’ll keep playing because he loves the competition. But, the minute he doesn’t play the Grand Slams; game, set, match — he’ll call it a career.
“But as long as he still loves it and he feels he has a chance, he’s gonna go for it. And never, ever, ever underestimate the heart of a champion.”
On the realistic path to another major, Macci argued luck and the state of rivals would play a role. “I think the only way he could win a Slam… it’s not gonna happen on clay, it’s just too physical, three out of five, I just think it’s too much on the body,” Macci assessed.
“And if the draw would break correctly, I know that happens with anybody, but let’s face it, if the draw broke correctly, if Alcaraz or Sinner got hurt, or you got a couple of walkovers… if things broke for him, absolutely [Djokovic could win].”
Analytics & Stats US Open WTA
Sabalenka favoured by Robson as Anisimova seeks first major at US Open
Robson leans towards Sabalenka in US Open final, highlighting her mental strength and routines. 2025

The 2025 US Open women’s final at Flushing Meadows pits World No 1 Aryna Sabalenka against Amanda Anisimova in the pair’s 10th career meeting. Anisimova leads the head-to-head 6-3 and prevailed in their most recent match, a Wimbledon semi-final in July, 6-4, 4-6, 6-4.
Sabalenka arrives as the defending champion and is chasing a second US Open title and a fourth Grand Slam crown. The 27-year-old Belarusian was also runner-up at the Australian Open and the French Open this year, losing those finals to Madison Keys and Coco Gauff respectively. Anisimova, ranked ninth, is seeking her maiden major. The 24-year-old American reached her first Grand Slam final at Wimbledon but was defeated 0-6, 0-6 by Iga Swiatek.
Both women won demanding three-set semi-finals in New York. Sabalenka beat Jessica Pegula, while Anisimova overcame Naomi Osaka to reach the title match.
Former British No 1 Laura Robson assessed the finalists and made a prediction on the eve of the match. “It was four incredible ball strikers [in the semi-finals], and then the two faster players came through, in terms of ball speed,” said the former world No 27.
“They were playing just lights out [tennis], especially Anisimova. I think she’s got the fastest backhand of anyone in the tournament, including the guys still left in the draw.
“I am kind of expecting Sabalenka to come through this final. You didn’t even ask me for a prediction, but I am leaning that way because of how she handled the situation in the third set against Pegula, saving all those break points, how she saved them as well with some of the best tennis of the entire tournament.
“We saw her regroup in real time, you know, each moment she stepped up. I think mentally, she wants it more than anyone else.
“She has done work on herself since that Wimbledon semi-final and we saw that against Pegula that she just stayed calm. She didn’t let the situation get on top of her and she also didn’t let the crowd affect her in any way, that’s definitely going to play a part in the final.
“Again, we saw her go through the motions and her routines and then just stay cool under pressure so I think, yeah, mentally she looks at the very top of her game.”
Ryan Harrison, who reached a career-high ranking of 40, also offered thoughts on Anisimova. “We have seen her smiling in some of the tense moments, which I think is a little bit experience on her, just learning how to manage everything that you are dealing with out there,” he said.
“I think it’s really important for her to try and have fun out there in the final. You want to get out there and, you know in the Wimbledon final, not to bring that up too much, she looked very tense, she looked like a little shell-shocked, so I think it’s important to see her smiling.
“I think I expect to see her having the crowd behind her. If she gets going quickly early and the crowd becomes a factor and you get that adrenaline rush, she can be a dangerous person to play against.”
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