Analytics & Stats ATP US Open
US Open 2025: Who stands to gain and who must defend big points
Sinner defends 2,000 points; Alcaraz, Djokovic and Shelton set to alter the ATP standings at US Open.

The points ledger heading into the 2025 US Open places clear winners and losers among the top men’s players. Jannik Sinner and Taylor Fritz are carrying the heaviest totals to defend from last year, while Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic and Ben Shelton are in position to make notable gains.
Sinner beat Fritz in the 2024 US Open final and collected 2,000 ranking points for the title; Fritz received 1,300 as runner-up. Under the ATP’s 52-week rolling system, those points drop ahead of the corresponding event and can only be reclaimed by replicating the previous result.
According to the Live Rankings after the 2024 points were removed, Sinner has already lost 2,000 points and currently sits on 9,490, which puts him below Alcaraz. Alcaraz was eliminated in the second round in 2024, so he loses 50 points and now sits on 9,550 after the standard 10 points for a major first-round appearance are applied.
If Sinner defends his crown in New York he will return to 11,480 points and retain the world No 1 position. Anything less than a title defense, however, opens the door for Alcaraz. If Alcaraz wins the US Open he is guaranteed to return to No 1 in the official rankings. A runners-up finish or a semi-final run could also lift him back to the top, provided Sinner exits early.
“The past three Grand Slams on hard courts, he won. It’s been unbelievable the tennis he’s bringing on hard courts,” Alcaraz said of Sinner. “So I just look up to him in some way just to be ready if I have to face him somewhere.”
Alexander Zverev will lose 400 points after reaching the quarter-final last year but looks set to remain at No 3. Fritz has dropped 1,300 points and remains at No 4 in the Live Rankings, though a shallow run could see him overtaken. Jack Draper will drop 800 points from his maiden semi-final and has slipped two places to No 7. Shelton is on the rise to a new best of No 5 after dropping only 100 points following an early exit in 2024.
Novak Djokovic, who was a defending champion at a previous major in 2024 but was beaten by Alexei Popyrin in the third round, will lose 100 points. Another deep run at Flushing Meadows could see him climb back toward the top three, depending on how those ahead of him perform. One American who reached the semi-final last year will also lose 800 points and has fallen out of the top 20 but can move back up with a strong result.
Analytics & Stats ATP US Open
Djokovic’s path to a fifth US Open and a place with three all-time greats
Djokovic targets a fifth US Open crown to join Federer, Connors and Sampras with five titles in 2025

Novak Djokovic, 38, remains a defining presence at the 2025 US Open. The Serbian arrives in New York on the back of semi-final runs at the Australian Open, French Open and Wimbledon earlier in 2025, and progressed to a record 14th US Open semi-final after Tuesday’s quarter-final. He extended his head-to-head dominance over 2024 runner-up Taylor Fritz to 11 wins from 11 in that match.
Djokovic already sits on 24 Grand Slam singles titles and has a long list of major records, yet a fifth US Open crown would place him in a select group. Since 1968, three men have claimed five US Open titles in the Open Era: Roger Federer, Jimmy Connors and Pete Sampras. Connors won in 1974, 1976, 1978, 1982 and 1983. Sampras lifted his first US Open in 1990 and added titles in 1993, 1995, 1996 and 2002. Federer collected five consecutive trophies from 2004 to 2008 and remains the last man to successfully defend the title.
While Federer and Connors reached seven US Open finals between them, that particular finals record belongs to Djokovic, who has appeared in 10 finals in New York. He won the tournament in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2023, giving him four US Open titles and placing him joint-fourth on the all-time list alongside Rafael Nadal and John McEnroe.
Djokovic has also lost six US Open finals: to Federer in 2007, to Nadal in 2010, to Andy Murray in 2012, to Nadal again in 2013, to Stan Wawrinka in 2016 and to Daniil Medvedev in 2021. A victory in New York would have drawn him level with Federer, Sampras and Connors at five US Open titles.
Beyond the tournament-specific milestone, Djokovic’s broader aims remain prominent: a 25th major and the possibility of becoming the oldest men’s singles Grand Slam winner of the Open Era. Should he defeat Carlos Alcaraz in Friday’s semi-final and then lift the trophy, it would add another defining chapter to his career.
Analytics & Stats ATP US Open
Ferrero: US Open semi-final timing could be a decisive edge for Alcaraz
Ferrero says US Open semi-final timing could help Alcaraz; Djokovic carries injury concerns. Update

Juan Carlos Ferrero believes match timing at the US Open could tilt the semi-final between Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic. The pair meet in the last four in New York for a ninth career semi-final clash, with Djokovic leading their head-to-head 5-3 and holding a 3-0 record on hard courts.
Alcaraz arrives at the semi-final without dropping a set in the tournament and with an exceptional run of form, having won 35 of his last 36 matches, the only loss coming to world No 1 Jannik Sinner in the Wimbledon final. Ferrero, a former world No 1 and his coach since 2019, stresses that form alone does not make his pupil the favourite. “Carlos is playing spectacularly, with a lot of confidence, but I don’t dare say that he is a favourite,” he said. “Novak will give everything, it will be very tough.
“What happened in Australia was painful because of how everything happened, but the conditions will be different here.
“We played there at night and that favored him a little, with a lower ball bounce.
“The ball was flatter and that suited him better.
“Here, I think that if we play during the day, it will be better for us.”
Ferrero has also highlighted Alcaraz’s mental progress in New York. “We have always known that he was very good tennis-wise, but on a mental level I am seeing him better than ever,” the Spaniard stated. “In this tournament he is showing that consistency of not having ups and downs and reaching the potential that we saw he could have.
“He is still very young, despite the experience he has. It is in the process of maturing and improving. Little by little he was giving details of improving, but in this tournament is where he is being most noticed.
“He barely makes five, six or seven errors per set. That is the difference compared to before.”
Djokovic, the 24-time Grand Slam champion, has battled physical issues at the event, taking medical time-outs for shoulder, foot and back concerns. After his quarter-final win over Taylor Fritz he admitted concerns about freshness. “Good thing about the schedule is now that I have two days without a match, so that helps a lot,” he said.
“So I don’t feel very fresh at the moment. But hopefully in two days will be different.
“It’s not going to get easier, I tell you that. But look, as I said, I’m going to try to take one day at a time, really take care of my body, try to relax and recover.
“The next couple of days is really key for me to really get my body in shape and ready to battle five sets if it’s needed.
“So I just would really love that, would love to be fit enough to play and to play, you know, potentially five sets with Carlos. And I know that my best tennis is going to be required, but I rise to the occasion.
“Normally, I like to play the big matches on a big stage. It’s just that I’m not really sure how the body is going to feel in the next few days. But, you know, I’m going to do my very best with my team to be fit for that.
“There’s going to be a lot of running involved, that’s for sure. I mean, there’s not going to be short points.”
Analytics & Stats US Open WTA
How Amanda Anisimova can climb to a career-high at the 2025 US Open
Anisimova can rise to a career-high No 6 or even crack the top five at the 2025 US Open. by Monday.

Amanda Anisimova arrives in New York having produced the best stretch of her career so far in 2025. The 24-year-old American reached her first Grand Slam final at Wimbledon earlier this summer, beating world No 1 Aryna Sabalenka in the semi-final, and collected her first WTA 1000 title at the Qatar Open in February.
Anisimova is into the US Open quarter-final for the first time and faces Iga Swiatek, a rematch that comes weeks after the American failed to win a single game versus the Pole at the All England Club. Beyond the immediate task of getting past a six-time major champion, this fortnight presents a major ranking opportunity.
This season Anisimova has climbed steadily. After returning to the tour in 2024 she broke into the top 20 following her victory over Jelena Ostapenko in the Doha final. A fourth-round showing at Roland Garros moved her into the top 15 and her run to a maiden major final at Wimbledon pushed her into the top 10. She reached a career-high of world No 7 after Wimbledon but entered the US Open at No 9.
Thanks to results in New York, she is guaranteed to be ranked at least seventh in the world after the tournament. Current world No 7 Zheng Qinwen is absent due to injury, while No 8 Jasmine Paolini was beaten in round three, opening the door for movement in the top ten.
A direct WTA Live Rankings battle with compatriot and world No 4 Jessica Pegula is unfolding. Pegula, who has 1,300 ranking points to defend as the 2024 runner-up, sits provisionally at world No 6 on 4,383 points, with Anisimova on 4,289. A victory over Swiatek would move Anisimova to 4,639 points and ahead of Pegula and Madison Keys, who holds 4,579. With Keys out in the first round, that would guarantee Anisimova a minimum ranking of world No 6 next Monday.
A further run to the final would lift her to 5,159 points, overtaking Mirra Andreeva on 4,793 and delivering a first top-five ranking. Only Pegula, by winning the title and hypothetically beating her in the final, could prevent that outcome.
It will not be easy to beat Swiatek, but Anisimova’s season suggests the possibility of another breakthrough in New York.
-
Grand SlamPlayer NewsWimbledon2 months ago
Amanda Anisimova vows to return stronger after being ‘frozen’ with nerves during Wimbledon final defeat
-
Grand SlamWimbledonWTA2 months ago
Slices, sabbaticals and a strong team key to SW19 success?
-
Player NewsWTA2 months ago
Zheng Qinwen to take “short break” following elbow surgery