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Analytics & Stats ATP US Open

Escude questions Djokovic’s chances of beating Alcaraz and Sinner in same US Open run

Nicolas Escude doubts Novak Djokovic can beat both Alcaraz and Sinner back-to-back at the US Open.

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Nicolas Escude has voiced doubts about Novak Djokovic’s belief that he can overcome both Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner on consecutive nights en route to the 2025 US Open title.

Djokovic, 38, is pursuing a record-equalling fifth US Open crown and a 25th Grand Slam singles trophy. The Serbian, aiming to become the oldest Grand Slam singles titlist in history, last won a major at the 2023 US Open.

He will meet world No 2 and five-time major champion Carlos Alcaraz in the semi-finals. The semi-final winner will face either world No 1 Jannik Sinner or 27th-ranked Felix Auger-Aliassime in the final.

The world No 7 holds a 5-3 head-to-head record against Alcaraz and has won the last two encounters, including a clash in the 2025 Australian Open quarter-finals. Alcaraz has been in formidable form, winning 35 of 36 matches since the Italian Open in May and yet to drop a set at this US Open. Sinner has won the last three hard-court Grand Slams and has beaten Djokovic five times in a row.

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Escude did not hold back when assessing Djokovic’s prospects. “In my opinion, he has a motivation, an objective that we don’t know, that we don’t control, that belongs only to him,” said the former world No 17. “When he sees Sinner and Alcaraz playing, I can’t believe he’s there saying to himself: ‘OK, I’ll take them both out one after the other, I have everything I need to do it.’

“He must feel that this is a level where, today, he is no longer capable of playing.”

After his quarter-final victory over Taylor Fritz, Djokovic acknowledged physical concerns and the work required to be ready for a deep run: “Well, it’s not going to get easier, I tell you that,” he said. “But look, as I said, I’m going to try to take one day at a time, really take care of my body, try to relax and recover.

“The next couple of days is really key for me to really get my body in shape and ready to battle five sets if it’s needed. So I just would really love that, would love to be fit enough to play and to play, you know, potentially five sets with Carlos. And I know that my best tennis is going to be required, but I rise to the occasion.

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“Normally, I like to play the big matches on a big stage. It’s just that I’m not really sure how the body is going to feel in the next few days. But, you know, I’m going to do my very best with my team to be fit for that. There’s going to be a lot of running involved, that’s for sure. I mean, there’s not going to be short points.”

On the challenge posed by his rivals, Djokovic added: “Yeah, well, I mean, we don’t need to spend words about two of them. You know, we know that they’re two best players in the world.

“Everybody’s probably expecting and anticipating the finals between two of them. I’m going to try to, you know, mess up the plans of most of the people and let’s see.

“You know, I mean, they’ve been dominant force since the beginning of the tournament, but, you know, I definitely am not going with the white flag on the court. I don’t think anybody does, really, when they play them, but particularly not me.”

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Analytics & Stats Player News Tennis Coaching

Alcaraz’s off-hand: the hidden engine behind his forehand

Alcaraz’s extended off-hand increases shoulder coil, storing energy that fuels his explosive forehand

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Watch almost any top-level player hit a forehand and you will notice the off-hand is not idle. During the takeback it helps position the racquet and rotate the upper body, creating structure and stored energy to release into the shot. For most players the hands separate during the takeback and the off-arm stays parallel to the net.

The current men’s No. 1 takes a different route. Where most players let go of the racquet’s throat when the off-arm is just about parallel to the net, he holds it until his left hand is even with his hitting shoulder. That retained contact changes how his stroke loads and unloads.

Keeping the off-hand on the racquet longer creates greater upper body tension. Mimic his turn and you can feel the stretch in the lats. The added shoulder rotation builds more stored energy that can be transferred into the swing. Yet the result is not a bigger, slower motion. He turns his shoulders more while maintaining a compact geometry: a bent hitting elbow and the racquet head level with the chest, similar to players who use a more modest shoulder turn.

That combination lets him generate faster swing speed without an exaggerated path. He uncoils with a relatively loose arm and so produces immense racquet head speed without relying on an extreme loop or oversized swing.

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He is not a template everyone can copy. Few players can replicate his range of motion, upper body flexibility or world-class timing. Even so, approximating a deeper shoulder coil and delaying the separation of the off-hand can measurably increase the amount of energy available to a forehand. For players and coaches focused on adding speed and consistency, the lesson is clear: the off-hand is an active tool for storing rotation-based power, not merely a balancing aid.

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Analytics & Stats Tennis Coaching

Why Numbers Help but Do Not Decide Tennis Matches

Analytics show tendencies, not fate: coaches say context, timing and feel decide tight matches. Now!

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Ivan Lendl was an early practitioner of match charting, and his work remains a useful reminder of the long relationship between coaching and numbers. “Ivan would do [the math] himself,” Jimmy Arias recently said. “Somehow, Ivan would get video tapes of the matches of the guys he was most worried about and chart them to figure it all out. It had to be a lot of work.”

The modern game has multiplied those tools. Stats now record everything from break point conversion to first-serve percentages and biomechanical details such as body rotation and height of bounce. Those measures can expose tendencies. Rafael Nadal, for example, posts a career best Under Pressure break point conversion of 44.9 percent, while Novak Djokovic sits at 44.1 percent. Over 300 break-point chances that amounts to roughly 134.7 conversions for Nadal and 132.3 for Djokovic, a difference of just over two points.

Numbers can be revealing and also misleading. “To really get a good sense of what a stat means,” veteran coach Craig Boynton told me, “You really have to drill down into it, see what factors are in play, including other stats.” Paul Annacone put it another way: “People sometimes go wrong by looking at the numbers in isolation…They don’t always look at when things happen in a match, or why they happen. I think it’s really important to understand why the numbers are what they are.”

Arias offered a practical frustration: “I used to get annoyed at a player I [worked with] because he would get 80% of his first serves in—the tour leader in 2025 at the moment is Alexander Zverev, at 71.5%—but he won a relatively low percentage of them because he was just spinning the first ball in.” He also highlighted the value of second-serve points won. “That one tells you who is winning the neutral rallies,” he said. “Generally, I’d like that person to have a better chance to win.”

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Coaches caution against rigid reliance on analytics. Annacone warned that too much data can blunt instinct: “In individual sports, players have innate skills and with too much data they’re just not going to feel it, or get that instinctive sense of, ‘This is going to happen,’ or, ‘This is what I’m going to do.’” Boynton described how he frames tendencies as options rather than mandates: “Hey, look, if you can’t get a feel, or some tell, about what your opponent’s doing to bother you, here’s a tendency. Don’t make it non-negotiable. You want the player to make the judgement and the final decision.”

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Analytics & Stats ATP WTA

Time to End the ‘Do-Over’ Serve Toss?

Proposal to ban ‘do-over’ tosses gains traction as bigger serves and aces change modern tennis. now.

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Tennis faces a recurring question as serving grows more dominant: should players be allowed to catch a tossed ball and try their toss again? The practice, often called the do-over toss or DOT, lets servers reset a flawed toss before the point and can occur multiple times in succession.

Critics argue DOTs compound an already server-friendly format. Two serves per point already favor the server; repeated tosses add additional advantage, disrupt returners and can be used to stall. “It is beyond ridiculous,” Gilbert said as early as the spring of 2024. He highlighted how several DOTs affect fairness and noted that genuine trials of adverse conditions could be handled away from the baseline before a point begins.

David Macpherson was blunt: “I would make every (caught) ball toss a fault. Catching ball tosses these days, it drives me nuts.” He also criticized tennis governance for resisting routine rule review: “It’s bizarre to me,” Macpherson said. “Innovation, I think, is good. We see it all the time in my football that I love in Australia. They’re always tweaking the rules to try and make it more attractive and fair. So, I don’t know why we’re so stodgy in tennis where we don’t look at things. We don’t have an independent panel that looks at the rules each year and says, “How can we make the game more attractive, singles and doubles?””

The fragmented rulemaking process — where the ITF, ATP and WTA issue rules that apply to the events they control — slows adoption of uniform changes. Tournaments have experimented with slower courts or balls that fluff up, though that strategy has been linked with increased arm injuries. Some coaches push further. Patrick Mouratoglou said, “The high number of aces and serve winners is detrimental to tennis. We want more rallies and less of these quick points—boom, serve, winner, ace, missed return. An occasional ace is fine, but not too many.”

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Serving power and player size have risen: the current ATP Top 10 is, on average, an inch taller than it was a decade ago. An AI trawl found that there are 17 men 6-3 or taller in the ATP Top 50. This trend is evident in the WTA as well: At least 11 women in the Top 50, including top-ranked Aryna Sabalenka and former Wimbledon Elena Rybakina, are 6-feet tall or over.

The elimination of the first serve is probably too drastic a measure at this stage of the game’s evolution. Doing so could also yield unpredictable results. Players with less potent or consistent serves might be punished even more severely than big-serve specialists. But it would certainly be worth trialing at some level of the competitive game.

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