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Who Can Stop Aryna Sabalenka? A Section-by-Section Look at the Australian Open Women’s Draw

Sabalenka is the favorite at the Australian Open; Gauff, Pegula, Keys and Swiatek are contenders….

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Aryna Sabalenka stands out as the draw’s dominant figure. Across the last 12 majors she has reached six finals, and since the start of 2023 she is 3-3 in Slam finals. She has been No. 1 for 65 straight weeks. In Melbourne specifically she has been both winner and runner-up: she captured the title in 2023 and 2024, and last year she lost a heartbreaker to Madison Keys in the final. Fresh off a 2025 US Open victory and an untroubled Brisbane title to open 2026, Sabalenka projects as the most likely player to reach the second week.

There are still test matches in her quarter. Emma Raducanu nearly took her in Cincinnati last summer, and Clara Tauson beat her 6-3, 6-2 in Dubai last winter. Jasmine Paolini, who would be a likely quarterfinal opponent, has lost five straight matches to Sabalenka, all in straight sets. A dark horse to watch in that area is Marta Kostyuk, who reached the Brisbane final after beating three higher seeds and shares Paolini’s section.

Coco Gauff and Mirra Andreeva occupy the same section and the matchup between them has felt like a future rivalry since their first meeting in 2023. Gauff leads their head-to-head 4-0. Seeds on Gauff’s side include Emma Navarro, Karolina Muchova and Marketa Vondrousova; Muchova, when healthy, is the most dangerous. Andreeva may open against Donna Vekic and could face Maria Sakkari early; Elina Svitolina, Diana Shnaider and Dayana Yastremska are notable names in her half. Venus Williams, 45, is 0-2 to start 2026 and could face Gauff if she gets past Olga Danilovic.

Three Americans, Amanda Anisimova, Jessica Pegula and defending champion Madison Keys, populate the opposite half and can all realistically reach the final. Anisimova sits with Sofia Kenin, Jelena Ostapenko and Linda Noskova nearby.

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Iga Swiatek and Elena Rybakina bookend the bottom quarter. Swiatek is chasing a career Grand Slam and has had recent forehand issues in losses to Gauff and Belinda Bencic; Naomi Osaka, Liudmila Samsonova and Anna Kalinskaya sit in her path. Rybakina closed 2025 by winning the WTA Finals in Riyadh and should handle the early rounds before a possible fourth-round clash with Bencic, who posted a 9-1 United Cup run.

Projected semifinalists: Sabalenka, Gauff, Pegula, Rybakina
Projected final: Sabalenka d. Gauff; Rybakina d. Pegula

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Carson Branstine criticizes inequality in tennis, calling the situation “the fact I’m not exaggerating is diabolical”

Branstine used TikTok to call out scheduling, medical and anti-doping inequalities in tennis season

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Carson Branstine has used social media to lay out a blunt critique of life for many professional players, even while sidelined by injury. The 25-year-old Canadian filmed a TikTok titled “POV: you play professional tennis” that sketches the realities faced by lower-ranked competitors.

Branstine, whose career-high ranking is No. 172, frames the clip as a series of mock conversations with tennis officials that expose costs and compromises beneath the tour’s surface. In the video she quips, “Merry Christmas! Your flight’s today. That’s your Christmas present,” and then adds, “But, like, you have to pay for it.” She follows with another exchange: “You can’t afford a coach?” and “That really sucks… I can’t help you.”

The most forceful section addresses perceived inconsistencies in anti-doping outcomes. “I mean, yeah she failed a drug test, but she’s No. 1 in the world,” Branstine says. “We need her to play…

“But, like, the other girl who is ranked No. 300 who (ate) contaminated meat? We’re just going to ban her for four years. We don’t need her.” She captioned the post, “the fact I’m not exaggerating is diabolical.” Branstine later clarified in the comments: “not referring to any specific players… it’s an example that has happened many times with different players.”

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The video’s examples echo public outcomes that drew scrutiny: Iga Swiatek accepted a one-month suspension in late 2024 after low levels of trimetazidine were traced to a contaminated supplement, while Tara Moore received a four-year ban in 2025 after a positive test she has argued came from contaminated meat.

Branstine’s post also highlights the financial and medical precarity players can face. She recounts the consequences of injury: “So sorry about your injury! You’re not going to make a single dollar for eight months,” and notes the difficulty of obtaining support: “You must be crazy for thinking we would cover your medical bills from the tournament we hosted you at!

“Yeah, we have insurance, but it’s the most expensive insurance ever, of course.”

Branstine broke through in 2025 while funding her career partly through modeling, is enrolled at Texas A&M and qualified for the Wimbledon main draw in 2025. She opened the 2026 season in Australia, winning a first-round qualifying match at the Australian Open before retiring injured against Daria Snigur with a shoulder issue and has not returned to competition since.

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Episode 17: Placing Arthur Fils’ Forehand and a Wide‑Ranging Chat with Marcos Baghdatis

The Big T: ranking Arthur Fils’ forehand, Marcos Baghdatis interview and Roland Garros expectations.

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Episode 17 of The Big T focuses on two clear threads: the debate over Arthur Fils’ forehand and a reflective interview with Marcos Baghdatis. The show opened a conversation that began with a simple question posed on social media: “Is @ArthurFils FH the best in the men’s tennis game right now? @_markpetchey” Brad Gilbert replied that Fils’ “fearhand” is massive, while still favoring Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz. That exchange led to a co-host debate with Coco Vandeweghe (48:00) about the top forehands on tour. “I think it’s definitely top three,” said Vandeweghe. Gilbert placed Joao Fonseca in his top three and slotted Fils fourth. Both offered honorable mentions: Coco went with Jakub Mensik; BG with Jiri Lehecka. As Vandeweghe noted, “The players from Czechia have such weight of shot, because they play on fast courts and need to get that depth really quickly,” says Vandeweghe, “and it’s a flatter ball that pushes you further and further back.”

The episode also revisited Marcos Baghdatis’ peak years and his transition to developing young players. Twenty years ago at the Australian Open Baghdatis reached the final during an era dominated by Roger Federer. The show reminded listeners that “Federer won all his Slam finals in four sets, over Rafael Nadal (Wimbledon), Andy Roddick (US Open) and…Marcos Baghdatis (Australian Open).” Baghdatis reflected on his own ambitions: “I wanted to be No. 1 in the world. I wanted to push myself more … I was not patient enough. Marcos Baghdatis” (15:30). His career-high reached No. 8; he finished 2006 ranked 12th. The interview covered career records against the era’s top players (1-7 vs Federer, 1-9 vs Nadal, 0-8 vs Novak Djokovic) and his current role as tournament director of the IMG Future Stars Tournament, helping prepare the next generation.

Looking ahead to Roland Garros, the hosts discussed the vacancy created by Alcaraz being sidelined through Madrid and potentially Roland Garros. Gilbert placed Djokovic first despite limited clay this season: “First, at 39 years young, I would still go—with no playing in him [on clay this season]—Djoker,” says Gilbert. He listed Alexander Zverev second and Fils third, while Coco offered Ben Shelton as an honorable mention following his Munich win. To share your top three forehands for men’s and women’s tennis, email thebigt@tennischannel.com [thebigt@tennischannel.com], or call 844-678-BIGT. New episodes drop every Wednesday.

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Rybakina secures second Stuttgart title with straight-set win over Muchova

Rybakina claimed her second Stuttgart crown, beating Muchova 7-5, 6-1 to start clay season for Rome

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Elena Rybakina captured her second Porsche Tennis Grand Prix trophy, defeating Karolina Muchova 7-5, 6-1 in a one hour and 18 minute final on Center Court. The top seed overcame a spirited comeback in the first set from the No. 7 seed before asserting control in the second.

Rybakina, the reigning 2026 Australian Open champion, is set to return to No. 1 in the Race to the WTA Finals standings after the victory. Since her major triumph in Melbourne, the 26-year-old produced steady results but had not claimed another title, finishing runner-up to the world No. 1 at the BNP Paribas Open and falling in the Miami Open semifinals.

With Aryna Sabalenka absent from the Porsche Tennis Grand Prix because of injury, Rybakina targeted a strong start to her clay-court season and lost just one set across four matches to complete that mission. She advanced through a third-set tiebreaker against Leylah Fernandez in the quarterfinals, handled No. 6 seed Mirra Andreeva after Andreeva had stunned No. 3 seed Iga Swiatek, and then carried momentum into the final.

Against Muchova, Rybakina raced to a 5-2 lead early in the opening set before Muchova fought back to level at 5-5 and saved two set points as she tried to force a tiebreak. Rybakina converted her third set point to close out the first set and then dominated the second, building a 5-0 advantage. Muchova avoided a bagel with a game for 5-1, but Rybakina served out the match to love.

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Muchova arrived in Stuttgart off a breakthrough season that included her first WTA 1000 title at the Qatar TotalEnergies Open. She had also snapped losing streaks against Coco Gauff and Elina Svitolina en route to the final, and she was the last woman to beat Rybakina before Rybakina went on to win the Australian Open. On Sunday, however, Rybakina’s form proved decisive as she lifted her second Porsche in three years.

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