ATP BNP Paribas Open Masters
Analysts Back Alcaraz to Keep Perfect Start Through Indian Wells
Carlos Alcaraz is favored to remain unbeaten at Indian Wells; Elena Rybakina is a threat this year.
The 2026 BNP Paribas Open arrives with Carlos Alcaraz the focal point. Main-draw play begins Wednesday, March 4, and a group of analysts assessed who is most likely to emerge victorious as the Sunshine Swing gets under way. Their consensus: Alcaraz is the clear favorite.
Alcaraz has not lost a match in 2026, sitting at 12-0 after two tournaments, and he appears to be managing his schedule carefully so he stays fresh for Indian Wells. Success in Melbourne and Doha underpins his momentum. Analysts also pointed to his split with coach Juan Carlos Ferrero and said the Spaniard has grown stronger since that change, widening the margin between himself and No. 2 Jannik Sinner. The analysts noted that Sinner has zero points to defend over the next two months, a factor that matters for rankings but not for the immediate expectations at BNP Paribas Open.
On paper, Elena Rybakina is one of the few players singled out as a genuine challenger. She is “absolutely playing great tennis,” the analysts said, but the women’s draw is deeper overall, which complicates forecasting a repeat of Alcaraz’s dominance on the men’s side.
Beyond raw form, surface and conditions were raised as decisive elements. The court conditions at Indian Wells were described as grittier and tougher to finish points on, favoring players with superior movement and varied offense. Analysts felt those traits play into Alcaraz’s strengths and make him difficult to beat in these circumstances.
Predictions ranged in tone but returned to the same conclusion: Alcaraz is the frontrunner to continue his unbeaten run through Indian Wells, while Rybakina remains a live candidate on the women’s side. With the BNP Paribas Open set to begin, the discussion will shift from projection to performance once play starts on March 4.
ATP ATP 500 Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships
Medvedev proposes more mandatory events and stripping points from smaller tournaments
Medvedev calls for more mandatory events and fewer ranking points at smaller tournaments. In 2026..
Daniil Medvedev used his run to the semifinals at the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships to outline a blunt reworking of the ATP rankings system. The No. 3 seed, a former world No. 1, reached the last four after victories over Stan Wawrinka and Jenson Brooksby, the latter 6-1, 6-2 in Thursday’s quarterfinals.
Medvedev argued that the problem is not the calendar itself but the mechanics of the rankings, which force players to chase points continuously. “I would think the players would agree, from what I’m hearing, to making even more mandatory tournaments,” he said. “Make it a bit more, like, get rid of the other (tournaments). All of them. That’s the only way to make the tour shorter.”
He used Holger Rune’s season-ending Achilles injury in Stockholm as an example of how the race for points can push top players into lower-tier events and dense stretches of competition. “Everybody was like, ‘Yeah, but you don’t have to play it.’ If he wants to be in Turin, he has to, even if it’s not a mandatory tournament,” Medvedev said.
Medvedev sketched a condensed calendar: “I would say make four Grand Slams, 11 Masters, and that’s it,” he proposed. “The other tournaments, maybe make them without (ranking) points or something. Not like exhibitions, but without (ranking) points or something.” Under his idea, many 500-level events would offer no ranking points, a change that would include tournaments like Acapulco and Dubai.
He acknowledged the practical and commercial obstacles. “The other tournaments, they won’t say, ‘Yeah, OK, we’re out,’ because they would lose the money,” Medvedev said. “It’s business. I think right now with how the ATP Tour, it’s never going to change, at least while I’m playing.”
The PIF ATP Rankings currently count a maximum of 18 events for players: four Grand Slams, eight automatic-entry Masters 1000 tournaments and six best other results, with the Nitto ATP Finals as an additional event. WTA rankings are calculated similarly, with seven WTA 1000 events and seven best other results and restrictions on top players’ participation in lower-tier events.
“Last year I played in seven tournaments in a row. Did I have to? No,” he added. “If there would be no points there, at least it is an easier decision. But it’s not going to happen.”
1000 ATP BNP Paribas Open
Five ATP players whose Indian Wells result could define the start of 2026
A look at five ATP players whose 2026 seasons could hinge on a strong Indian Wells showing. in March
Indian Wells traditionally accelerates the season, and for several men the desert will offer a clear gauge of where their 2026 campaigns are headed. Here are five players for whom a deep run would be particularly useful.
Jannik Sinner (Rank: 2) — 2025 IW: Did Not Play
Sinner’s history in the tournament is complicated. He tested positive for a banned substance after the 2024 edition, and was banned from the event in 2025. He has yet to reach the final at Indian Wells, losing to Carlos Alcaraz in the semifinals in both 2023 and 2024. Sinner has trailed Alcaraz slightly this year, falling in the Melbourne semifinals and Doha quarterfinals while Alcaraz captured both titles. A first title in the desert would be a timely statement.
Taylor Fritz (Rank: 7) — 2025 IW: 4th round
Fritz is 8-3 since the United Cup, reached the final in Dallas and had match points for the title there, and has moved up to No. 7 despite a shaky knee. Indian Wells is a home tournament for the SoCal native: he won it four years ago. At 28, Fritz has spent his 20s climbing into the Top 10 and into second weeks at majors; another strong showing in the desert would help him push beyond merely holding a top-10 place.
Daniil Medvedev (Rank: 11) — 2025 IW: Semifinal
Medvedev looked ready for a reboot in 2026 after a difficult prior 12 months. He hired a new coach and began 2026 strongly, winning Brisbane and compiling a 12-3 start to the season. He was upset by Learner Tien in the Australian Open fourth round and then lost early in Rotterdam and Doha; at the time of this piece he was in the semifinals in Dubai. Medvedev has made the Indian Wells final twice and reached the 2025 semifinals, meaning he will be defending points there. An early exit would stall his comeback.
Jakub Mensik (Rank: 13) — 2025 IW: 2nd round
Mensik’s crucial week is Miami, where he defends champion’s points. After his Miami title he failed to make another semifinal in 2025. In 2026 he has been inconsistent, though he won Auckland and reached the Doha semifinal after defeating Sinner. Still only 20 and standing 6’5, Mensik’s serve and youth suggest a deep Sunshine Double would accelerate his development.
Cerundolo (Rank: 19) — 2025 IW: Quarterfinal
Last spring Cerundolo looked poised to become a multi-surface threat. He used South American clay momentum to reach the Indian Wells and Miami quarterfinals, then made semifinals in Munich and Madrid and arrived at Roland Garros as a dark horse. He lost in the first round at Roland Garros and then at Wimbledon, and never regained form in 2025.
ATP College Tennis Player News
Evan King’s late surge: persistence, community and a breakthrough doubles year
After years away, Evan King rebuilt his career and delivered a career-best doubles season at 33. now
Evan King’s path back to the tour was anything but linear. The former Michigan standout left professional tennis in 2014 and returned to Ann Arbor to coach, only to feel “the itch to compete again.” His four seasons at Michigan left him ranked second in all-time singles and combined wins and a two-time Big Ten Athlete of the Year, but early pro setbacks convinced him he needed to change his approach.
“I just wasn’t handling losing every week right,” King told TENNIS.com when reflecting on the early part of his career. After serving as a Volunteer Assistant Coach between 2014-2016 he recommitted to training and adopted a stricter work ethic. King recalls a clear turning point after a 6-1 loss to Dennis Novolo that forced him to confront his routine. “I decided to go after it again and do it in the correct way,” King said. “If I lost a match, not just taking the next day off. ‘No, get your ass back on the practice court and keep building and keep growing.”
The reset paid dividends. Back on a full schedule in 2016, King reached four Futures finals and won two consecutive events. He returned to tour-level draws in 2017 at Los Cabos and the US Open. While his singles peak came at 185, his results were stronger in doubles: from 2016-2020 he won 16 doubles titles, including the 2016 Monterey Challenger with Dennis Kudla, a 2017 victory with Christopher Eubanks and the 2019 Monterrey Challenger with Nathan Pasha.
King shifted to a primarily doubles focus in 2021, capturing Challenger titles in Zagreb and Biella and reaching the US Open third round. Between 2021 and 2023 he collected thirteen Challenger titles and cracked the Top 100. At 33, his 2025 season paired him with Christian Harrison; after agreeing to five events they won the ATP Dallas 500 in their third tournament, reached the Delray Beach 250 final, won the Acapulco 500 and made deep runs at Indian Wells and Roland Garros. “So then it’s like, boom, we are now a partnership. Obviously, we’re partners before, but now we’re locked in,” King said.
King also highlights the value of the Black tennis community: “It’s not too many of us out there. So you automatically have a little bit of bond on shared experiences…kind of get to know all the black dudes that are your same age range and hang out with them, compete with them, cheer for them.” He now partners with Jonathan Peers and remains convinced his best tennis is still ahead.
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