Both Aryna Sabalenka and Jannik Sinner entered Indian Wells with something missing from their resumes: a title in the desert and a first trophy of 2026. Each arrived under scrutiny after painful losses in Melbourne and left with answers.

Sabalenka had been No. 1 for 81 weeks and sat far ahead in the rankings, but a string of final-round setbacks had lingered after the Australian Open loss to Elena Rybakina. The situation was similar for Sinner, who had been ranked one or two since mid-2024 and had come through Melbourne with his own tough moments. “I’m so done losing these big finals. Aryna Sabalenka”

Both players praised Indian Wells on arrival. Sabalenka said she was “super happy to be back in Tennis Paradise, it’s super beautiful.” Sinner called it a “special place,” and said his “preparation is going really well.” The faster courts suited their aggressive games; neither dropped a set on the run to the final, and both sounded determined to take the trophy. “I want to make sure that I get it, I get the trophy,” Sabalenka said. “You know, I’m so done losing these big finals.” “We tried to come here very early,” Sinner said. “I knew that this was a tournament I haven’t won, so I wanted to come here and prepare it in the best possible way, as professional as possible.”

Sabalenka needed that resolve in a three-hour final with Rybakina. She fought back from an early break and a set down, found momentum after a smashed racquet, and closed the decider in a tiebreak with a final unreturnable serve. “I’m super happy that in those last three points of the match, I was able to pull out really great tennis and get the win,” Sabalenka said. “With so many finals that I’ve lost, they also teach me a lot of things that basically the game is never done till it’s done,” she added. “So if it’s a match point, you still have a chance to get back into the game.”

Sinner endured blistering heat — temperatures near 97 — in a tight match with Daniil Medvedev. The two played without a break for two hours and 24 games, and Sinner edged both tiebreaks. “Well done,” said his impressed coach, Darren Cahill, before Sinner closed the set with a service winner. “It feels amazing,” Sinner said. “Great achievement.” “I felt very well prepared, so I was not having big issues with the weather and with the heat, which is very positive for me. But look, it’s all part of the process we are trying to do and becoming the best possible athlete.”

Novak Djokovic withdrew from the Miami Open on Sunday, citing a right shoulder injury, and will not defend the title he chased to the final a year ago. The six-time champion had been scheduled to play at the second stop of the Sunshine Double but pulled out following a tough run at Indian Wells.

Djokovic was edged by Jack Draper at Indian Wells on Wednesday, losing in a decisive tiebreaker to the reigning BNP Paribas Open champion. That match followed his Australian Open run, where the 38-year-old ousted Jannik Sinner to reach the final. Through two hard-court appearances this season Djokovic is 7-2.

Because he will not defend his Miami points, Djokovic is set to lose 650 points from the rankings. Combined with Alexander Zverev defending only 100 points after a 2025 round-of-16 exit, that points loss will cause Djokovic to fall out of the Top 3 on March 30. Other players positioned to move ahead with deep runs at Hard Rock Stadium include Lorenzo Musetti, Alex de Minaur and Ben Shelton.

The timing of the withdrawal comes ahead of the European clay-court swing, where Djokovic has opportunities to regain ground. He enters the clay schedule with relatively little to defend: only 20 points across the three Masters 1000 events in Monte Carlo, Madrid and Rome, offering a clear path to recoup rankings points on red clay.

Tournament organizers provided the update citing the shoulder issue. The withdrawal ends Djokovic’s bid at Miami for this year and reshapes the immediate rankings picture as the tour transitions from North American hard courts to the clay season.

Start Time: Not before 5:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, March 15

This Indian Wells final is as much about recent form as it is about a long-running rivalry. Sinner carried a persistent problem early in the matchup: from 2020 through the 2023 Miami final, Medvedev won their first six meetings. When Sinner finally broke through against him in the 2023 Beijing final, something clicked. A month later, he would go on to beat Novak Djokovic for the first time. Two months after that, he would beat Djokovic and Medvedev back to back to win his first major title, at the Australian Open.

After losing his first six matches to him, Sinner has won eight of the last nine. That run peaked in the 2024 Australian Open final, which Medvedev led two sets to love, and it helped send Sinner on a path to No. 1. Medvedev, by contrast, experienced a gradual decline that finished with him out of the Top 10 and split from his long-time coach by the end of 2025.

Medvedev has returned to strong form in 2026. He has a new coach, two titles this year and a 10-match winning streak, capped by a high-profile victory over Carlos Alcaraz. Medvedev described his own level this week: “I feel like I’m playing great, very good tennis,” Medvedev says. “I never want to jump into conclusions like best tennis of my life or whatever. I’m playing very good.” He also emphasised his confidence and willingness to dictate points: “Right now, I’m in confidence and when I’m in confidence, I always said I feel like I’m an aggressive player, especially on my serve,” Medvedev says. “It’s a bit different on the return. But even on the return, whenever I get the opportunity with one great return, and today was the same, I tried to dictate.”

Sinner remains the player who reached No. 1 and who has dominated this pairing recently. “He’s been, in the past, a player who made me improve a lot,” Sinner says of Medvedev. The match-up promises an intriguing contrast: Sinner’s superior ground-stroke pace versus Medvedev’s renewed aggression and depth. That combination sets up an excellent final.