The US Open final brings Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz together for a third straight Grand Slam meeting, the head-to-head locked at one win apiece. Alcaraz’s victory at the French Open and Sinner’s success at Wimbledon set the stage for a decisive clash that will shape the remainder of the season.

Sinner arrives in New York carrying the reputation of a near-unstoppable hard court player. The last man to beat him on a hard court was Carlos Alcaraz in China last October. Since then Sinner has extended his authority on the surface, striking the ball with exceptional power and reducing unforced errors to a minimum. That combination has made him extraordinarily difficult to dislodge.

At this US Open, Denis Shapovalov and Felix Auger-Aliassime tested Sinner and at times forced him out of his comfort zone. In each case Sinner responded, producing the decisive blows when they mattered most. If he reproduces that level on final day, he looks capable of overwhelming Alcaraz.

Alcaraz remains the only player in the field with a sustained chance of stopping Sinner. His run to the French Open title included a dramatic final in which he saved match points and found a way to win under pressure. That resilience is central to any plan to upset Sinner.

To have a realistic chance, Alcaraz must stay close to Sinner from the outset and, if he falls behind, try to extend the contest. Long, gruelling matches have often favoured Alcaraz when the pair have met.

If Sinner wins in New York he will remain world No 1; if Alcaraz prevails he will return to the top of the rankings. The New York crowd may bolster Alcaraz, but the match appears likely to be decided by Sinner’s relentless defence of his title. Expect Sinner to take the trophy in four sets and to move closer to ending 2025 with three Grand Slams out of four, confirming his growing separation from the rest of the field.

Two players arrive in the same Grand Slam final for a third consecutive major, and their recent run together has altered the landscape. They have contested five straight events in which both entered and both reached the championship match: Rome, Roland Garros, Wimbledon, Cincinnati and the Open. That sequence includes three Slams and three surfaces.

Jannik Sinner tried to deflect a personal edge question with a practical answer. “On court we like seeing each, you know, because it means that, considering our ranking, that we are doing well in the tournament.”

At the Open the dynamics have been notable. Carlos Alcaraz reached this final without dropping a set for the first time in a Slam run, and on Friday he ran Novak Djokovic ragged over three mostly uncompetitive sets. “Probably I’m just getting mature,” Alcaraz said.

Sinner’s path was more variable. He dropped two-set contests to Denis Shapovalov and Felix Auger Aliassime, yet he dismantled Alexei Popyrin, Alexander Bublik and Lorenzo Musetti. He required more than three hours to subdue Auger Aliassime on Friday night and said he felt a “twitch” in his abs that slowed his serve and forced him to get treatment off court. Sinner has been No. 1 for the last 65 weeks, is the defending champion, and has won the last three hard-court majors. He beat Alcaraz in their most recent completed match, the Wimbledon final, and owns a 20-8 record in finals and 17-6 in hard-court finals.

There are strong arguments for both men. Alcaraz leads their head-to-head 9-5 and is 6-2 on hard courts, and he has won 45 of his last 47 matches while improving his serve over the summer. Sinner has a record of bringing Alcaraz to peak levels; in Beijing and Roland Garros their matches reached final-set tiebreakers. At Wimbledon the script changed, with Sinner taking the early initiative, hitting more winners and coming to the net far more often. Alcaraz admitted: “At some points I didn’t know what I had to do in the match because from the baseline I was feeling he was better than me, and I couldn’t do anything about it,” adding, “I think the big key was the second serve. He was returning really well the second serve. Thanks to that, he was in the position to attack the second ball every time.”

Alcaraz says he learns from these encounters, and the likely tactical themes for the final are clear: seize initiative early, approach the net more, vary with drop shots and target the second serve. Which approach will win out on Sunday remains the central question.

Novak Djokovic’s run at the 2025 US Open ended in the semi-finals with a 6-4, 7-6(4), 6-2 defeat to Carlos Alcaraz. The loss completed a year in which Djokovic reached the semi-finals at all four Grand Slam events, a notable feat as he turned 38 in May.

Across those four major semi-finals in 2025, Djokovic was unable to take a set, with physical limitations repeatedly noted. Before New York he had suffered straight-set semi-final defeats to Jannik Sinner at both Wimbledon and the French Open. At the Australian Open he retired after losing a gruelling first set to Alexander Zverev when a hamstring issue — sustained in his quarter-final win over Alcaraz — forced him out.

The Serbian’s most recent Grand Slam victory remains his 24th, earned at the 2023 US Open. Since the start of 2024 he has claimed two titles: last year’s Paris Olympics and the 2025 Geneva Open.

Rick Macci offered a perspective on Djokovic’s future and probability of retirement. Macci, who coached Venus and Serena Williams during their childhood, said: “I think he’ll keep playing simply because, once again, kind of like Venus [Williams] — but obviously it’s different – he just loves the competition,” said the American.

He added: “Why would you want to put your body through that, get up every day, he has a family… you’re not doing it for a paycheck! He just loves the competition. And I think if he feels he can win, okay, he’ll continue to play.

“Now, Roland Garros, I don’t know. I just think because the rallies are longer, you gotta bring your breakfast, lunch and dinner on red clay. It’s a little different situation. Grass, to me, was his best shot.

“But yeah, I think he’ll keep playing because he loves the competition. But, the minute he doesn’t play the Grand Slams; game, set, match — he’ll call it a career.

“But as long as he still loves it and he feels he has a chance, he’s gonna go for it. And never, ever, ever underestimate the heart of a champion.”

On the realistic path to another major, Macci argued luck and the state of rivals would play a role. “I think the only way he could win a Slam… it’s not gonna happen on clay, it’s just too physical, three out of five, I just think it’s too much on the body,” Macci assessed.

“And if the draw would break correctly, I know that happens with anybody, but let’s face it, if the draw broke correctly, if Alcaraz or Sinner got hurt, or you got a couple of walkovers… if things broke for him, absolutely [Djokovic could win].”