Indian Wells traditionally accelerates the season, and for several men the desert will offer a clear gauge of where their 2026 campaigns are headed. Here are five players for whom a deep run would be particularly useful.

Jannik Sinner (Rank: 2) — 2025 IW: Did Not Play
Sinner’s history in the tournament is complicated. He tested positive for a banned substance after the 2024 edition, and was banned from the event in 2025. He has yet to reach the final at Indian Wells, losing to Carlos Alcaraz in the semifinals in both 2023 and 2024. Sinner has trailed Alcaraz slightly this year, falling in the Melbourne semifinals and Doha quarterfinals while Alcaraz captured both titles. A first title in the desert would be a timely statement.

Taylor Fritz (Rank: 7) — 2025 IW: 4th round
Fritz is 8-3 since the United Cup, reached the final in Dallas and had match points for the title there, and has moved up to No. 7 despite a shaky knee. Indian Wells is a home tournament for the SoCal native: he won it four years ago. At 28, Fritz has spent his 20s climbing into the Top 10 and into second weeks at majors; another strong showing in the desert would help him push beyond merely holding a top-10 place.

Daniil Medvedev (Rank: 11) — 2025 IW: Semifinal
Medvedev looked ready for a reboot in 2026 after a difficult prior 12 months. He hired a new coach and began 2026 strongly, winning Brisbane and compiling a 12-3 start to the season. He was upset by Learner Tien in the Australian Open fourth round and then lost early in Rotterdam and Doha; at the time of this piece he was in the semifinals in Dubai. Medvedev has made the Indian Wells final twice and reached the 2025 semifinals, meaning he will be defending points there. An early exit would stall his comeback.

Jakub Mensik (Rank: 13) — 2025 IW: 2nd round
Mensik’s crucial week is Miami, where he defends champion’s points. After his Miami title he failed to make another semifinal in 2025. In 2026 he has been inconsistent, though he won Auckland and reached the Doha semifinal after defeating Sinner. Still only 20 and standing 6’5, Mensik’s serve and youth suggest a deep Sunshine Double would accelerate his development.

Cerundolo (Rank: 19) — 2025 IW: Quarterfinal
Last spring Cerundolo looked poised to become a multi-surface threat. He used South American clay momentum to reach the Indian Wells and Miami quarterfinals, then made semifinals in Munich and Madrid and arrived at Roland Garros as a dark horse. He lost in the first round at Roland Garros and then at Wimbledon, and never regained form in 2025.

Evan King’s path back to the tour was anything but linear. The former Michigan standout left professional tennis in 2014 and returned to Ann Arbor to coach, only to feel “the itch to compete again.” His four seasons at Michigan left him ranked second in all-time singles and combined wins and a two-time Big Ten Athlete of the Year, but early pro setbacks convinced him he needed to change his approach.

“I just wasn’t handling losing every week right,” King told TENNIS.com when reflecting on the early part of his career. After serving as a Volunteer Assistant Coach between 2014-2016 he recommitted to training and adopted a stricter work ethic. King recalls a clear turning point after a 6-1 loss to Dennis Novolo that forced him to confront his routine. “I decided to go after it again and do it in the correct way,” King said. “If I lost a match, not just taking the next day off. ‘No, get your ass back on the practice court and keep building and keep growing.”

The reset paid dividends. Back on a full schedule in 2016, King reached four Futures finals and won two consecutive events. He returned to tour-level draws in 2017 at Los Cabos and the US Open. While his singles peak came at 185, his results were stronger in doubles: from 2016-2020 he won 16 doubles titles, including the 2016 Monterey Challenger with Dennis Kudla, a 2017 victory with Christopher Eubanks and the 2019 Monterrey Challenger with Nathan Pasha.

King shifted to a primarily doubles focus in 2021, capturing Challenger titles in Zagreb and Biella and reaching the US Open third round. Between 2021 and 2023 he collected thirteen Challenger titles and cracked the Top 100. At 33, his 2025 season paired him with Christian Harrison; after agreeing to five events they won the ATP Dallas 500 in their third tournament, reached the Delray Beach 250 final, won the Acapulco 500 and made deep runs at Indian Wells and Roland Garros. “So then it’s like, boom, we are now a partnership. Obviously, we’re partners before, but now we’re locked in,” King said.

King also highlights the value of the Black tennis community: “It’s not too many of us out there. So you automatically have a little bit of bond on shared experiences…kind of get to know all the black dudes that are your same age range and hang out with them, compete with them, cheer for them.” He now partners with Jonathan Peers and remains convinced his best tennis is still ahead.

The 2026 BNP Paribas Open arrives with main-draw play beginning Wednesday, March 4. A team of analysts assessed the field and singled out several players who could use the Sunshine Swing as a springboard for the season ahead.

Coco Gauff: By her standards Coco has had an underwhelming start to the year, but she began to regain traction in Dubai where she reached the semifinals. The slower, wind-affected conditions at Indian Wells should suit her game and give her an opportunity to build momentum.

Iga Swiatek: Analysts view Swiatek as a serious threat in the desert. “I’ll take Swiatek to make a big run and potentially win it—especially if she plays a handful of night matches or matches in the wind.  I think she’s dangerous in those conditions.” That combination of form and favorable conditions makes her a logical pick to kick off 2026 with a deep run.

Frances Tiafoe: Frances’s start to 2026 was described as downright pedestrian. He has made coaching changes since parting with David Witt and Jordi Arconada at the end of last season and is now working with Dr. Mark Kovacs. The expectation is that a refreshed Tiafoe will be energized for the Sunshine Double and begin to put his season together.

Emma Navarro: Emma is a candidate to right the ship at a tournament where she reached her first WTA 1000 quarterfinal in 2024. She has struggled late in recent events, but her quality suggests more consistent results are possible. Returning to the United States and competing on familiar courts could provide a lift.

With Indian Wells set to test players in wind and night conditions, the early March event offers a clear chance for top names to set the tone for 2026.