Indian Wells traditionally accelerates the season, and for several men the desert will offer a clear gauge of where their 2026 campaigns are headed. Here are five players for whom a deep run would be particularly useful.

Jannik Sinner (Rank: 2) — 2025 IW: Did Not Play
Sinner’s history in the tournament is complicated. He tested positive for a banned substance after the 2024 edition, and was banned from the event in 2025. He has yet to reach the final at Indian Wells, losing to Carlos Alcaraz in the semifinals in both 2023 and 2024. Sinner has trailed Alcaraz slightly this year, falling in the Melbourne semifinals and Doha quarterfinals while Alcaraz captured both titles. A first title in the desert would be a timely statement.

Taylor Fritz (Rank: 7) — 2025 IW: 4th round
Fritz is 8-3 since the United Cup, reached the final in Dallas and had match points for the title there, and has moved up to No. 7 despite a shaky knee. Indian Wells is a home tournament for the SoCal native: he won it four years ago. At 28, Fritz has spent his 20s climbing into the Top 10 and into second weeks at majors; another strong showing in the desert would help him push beyond merely holding a top-10 place.

Daniil Medvedev (Rank: 11) — 2025 IW: Semifinal
Medvedev looked ready for a reboot in 2026 after a difficult prior 12 months. He hired a new coach and began 2026 strongly, winning Brisbane and compiling a 12-3 start to the season. He was upset by Learner Tien in the Australian Open fourth round and then lost early in Rotterdam and Doha; at the time of this piece he was in the semifinals in Dubai. Medvedev has made the Indian Wells final twice and reached the 2025 semifinals, meaning he will be defending points there. An early exit would stall his comeback.

Jakub Mensik (Rank: 13) — 2025 IW: 2nd round
Mensik’s crucial week is Miami, where he defends champion’s points. After his Miami title he failed to make another semifinal in 2025. In 2026 he has been inconsistent, though he won Auckland and reached the Doha semifinal after defeating Sinner. Still only 20 and standing 6’5, Mensik’s serve and youth suggest a deep Sunshine Double would accelerate his development.

Cerundolo (Rank: 19) — 2025 IW: Quarterfinal
Last spring Cerundolo looked poised to become a multi-surface threat. He used South American clay momentum to reach the Indian Wells and Miami quarterfinals, then made semifinals in Munich and Madrid and arrived at Roland Garros as a dark horse. He lost in the first round at Roland Garros and then at Wimbledon, and never regained form in 2025.

With main-draw play set to begin Wednesday, March 4, attention turns to the standout contenders at the 2026 BNP Paribas Open in Tennis Paradise. A panel of analysts handicapped the field and singled out several players likely to generate the most interest as the Sunshine Swing gets under way.

Victoria Mboko. She just broke into the Top 10 and has already reached two WTA 1000 finals, winning my home tournament up in Canada last summer. Heading into Indian Wells, I truly believe the sky’s the limit!

Carlos Alcaraz. Carlos is, by far, the most exciting player in tennis right now. He is also the best shot maker and arguably has the best attitude in the history of tennis.

(I also have a wager with my friends that I can get invited to dinner or lunch with him and his crew at least one time this year—so picking him just might give me another opportunity at making that happen!)

Aryna Sabalenka. The world No. 1 played a great Australian Open but took a tough loss in the final to Elena Rybakina and hasn’t played since, skipping both Middle East tournaments in Doha and Dubai. I’m interested to see how she’s holding up emotionally as much as with her tennis.

Learner Tien. This young American made a meteoric rise into the Top 20 in his first full year on tour. How will he handle the occasion of playing in his de facto hometown tournament as a seed?

Those selections set the stage for a compelling fortnight in Indian Wells, where established stars and rising talents will test form and resilience on a big-court stage.

The 2026 BNP Paribas Open delivers a concentration of streaks, records and ranking battles. At the top of the list is Carlos Alcaraz, who has opened the year 12-0, with titles at the Australian Open and Doha. Alcaraz arrives at Indian Wells with a 20-3 career record at the event, having won the title in 2023 and 2024 and reached at least the semifinals in each of the last four years.

A persistent challenger is Sinner, who closed 2025 on a 15-match winning streak but has shown signs of cooling in 2026, losing in the Australian Open semifinals and the Doha quarterfinals. Those back-to-back results marked the first time since 2024 that he fell before the final at consecutive events. Sinner’s best Indian Wells results are two semifinals, and it remains the only hard-court Masters 1000 he has not won. He cannot overtake Alcaraz for No. 1 in this event, but he can reduce a 3,150-point deficit.

When Alcaraz and Sinner have both been in the draw, one of them has claimed the title in the last 17 tournaments they entered. That run covers eight Grand Slams, two ATP Finals, five Masters 1000 events and two ATP 500s. The last time both were in a draw and neither won was Andrey Rublev in Madrid in 2024.

Djokovic is another storyline. The world No. 3 returns after his run to the Australian Open final. He is the only player ever to beat both Alcaraz and Sinner at the same tournament, doing so at the 2023 ATP Finals with scorelines of 6-3, 6-2 and 6-3, 6-3. Djokovic is tied for the most Indian Wells titles at five and would set a new tournament record with a sixth. He already holds the record for most Masters 1000 titles overall at 40.

On the women’s side, Aryna Sabalenka seeks her first Indian Wells crown after reaching finals in 2023 and 2025. She is chasing a 10th WTA 1000 title. Sabalenka’s No. 1 ranking is protected by a 3,087-point cushion, though she must defend 650 points from last year’s final. Iga Swiatek remains the only woman to win the event twice in even years, 2022 and 2024, and the women’s draw has never produced a three-time champion in 36 editions. Meanwhile, Swiatek’s No. 2 ranking is vulnerable to Elena Rybakina, Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula.

Two 2025 champions return to defend titles. Draper’s breakthrough Masters 1000 win propelled him into the Top 10, but after a lengthy eight-month absence with an arm injury he now sits at No. 15 and faces the risk of falling out of the Top 20 with an early exit. Andreeva arrives having won back-to-back WTA 1000 titles last year, defeating No. 2 Swiatek and No. 1 Sabalenka in successive rounds.