Indian Wells traditionally accelerates the season, and for several men the desert will offer a clear gauge of where their 2026 campaigns are headed. Here are five players for whom a deep run would be particularly useful.

Jannik Sinner (Rank: 2) — 2025 IW: Did Not Play
Sinner’s history in the tournament is complicated. He tested positive for a banned substance after the 2024 edition, and was banned from the event in 2025. He has yet to reach the final at Indian Wells, losing to Carlos Alcaraz in the semifinals in both 2023 and 2024. Sinner has trailed Alcaraz slightly this year, falling in the Melbourne semifinals and Doha quarterfinals while Alcaraz captured both titles. A first title in the desert would be a timely statement.

Taylor Fritz (Rank: 7) — 2025 IW: 4th round
Fritz is 8-3 since the United Cup, reached the final in Dallas and had match points for the title there, and has moved up to No. 7 despite a shaky knee. Indian Wells is a home tournament for the SoCal native: he won it four years ago. At 28, Fritz has spent his 20s climbing into the Top 10 and into second weeks at majors; another strong showing in the desert would help him push beyond merely holding a top-10 place.

Daniil Medvedev (Rank: 11) — 2025 IW: Semifinal
Medvedev looked ready for a reboot in 2026 after a difficult prior 12 months. He hired a new coach and began 2026 strongly, winning Brisbane and compiling a 12-3 start to the season. He was upset by Learner Tien in the Australian Open fourth round and then lost early in Rotterdam and Doha; at the time of this piece he was in the semifinals in Dubai. Medvedev has made the Indian Wells final twice and reached the 2025 semifinals, meaning he will be defending points there. An early exit would stall his comeback.

Jakub Mensik (Rank: 13) — 2025 IW: 2nd round
Mensik’s crucial week is Miami, where he defends champion’s points. After his Miami title he failed to make another semifinal in 2025. In 2026 he has been inconsistent, though he won Auckland and reached the Doha semifinal after defeating Sinner. Still only 20 and standing 6’5, Mensik’s serve and youth suggest a deep Sunshine Double would accelerate his development.

Cerundolo (Rank: 19) — 2025 IW: Quarterfinal
Last spring Cerundolo looked poised to become a multi-surface threat. He used South American clay momentum to reach the Indian Wells and Miami quarterfinals, then made semifinals in Munich and Madrid and arrived at Roland Garros as a dark horse. He lost in the first round at Roland Garros and then at Wimbledon, and never regained form in 2025.

The 2026 BNP Paribas Open arrives with main-draw play beginning Wednesday, March 4. A team of analysts assessed the field and singled out several players who could use the Sunshine Swing as a springboard for the season ahead.

Coco Gauff: By her standards Coco has had an underwhelming start to the year, but she began to regain traction in Dubai where she reached the semifinals. The slower, wind-affected conditions at Indian Wells should suit her game and give her an opportunity to build momentum.

Iga Swiatek: Analysts view Swiatek as a serious threat in the desert. “I’ll take Swiatek to make a big run and potentially win it—especially if she plays a handful of night matches or matches in the wind.  I think she’s dangerous in those conditions.” That combination of form and favorable conditions makes her a logical pick to kick off 2026 with a deep run.

Frances Tiafoe: Frances’s start to 2026 was described as downright pedestrian. He has made coaching changes since parting with David Witt and Jordi Arconada at the end of last season and is now working with Dr. Mark Kovacs. The expectation is that a refreshed Tiafoe will be energized for the Sunshine Double and begin to put his season together.

Emma Navarro: Emma is a candidate to right the ship at a tournament where she reached her first WTA 1000 quarterfinal in 2024. She has struggled late in recent events, but her quality suggests more consistent results are possible. Returning to the United States and competing on familiar courts could provide a lift.

With Indian Wells set to test players in wind and night conditions, the early March event offers a clear chance for top names to set the tone for 2026.

With main-draw play set to begin Wednesday, March 4, attention turns to the standout contenders at the 2026 BNP Paribas Open in Tennis Paradise. A panel of analysts handicapped the field and singled out several players likely to generate the most interest as the Sunshine Swing gets under way.

Victoria Mboko. She just broke into the Top 10 and has already reached two WTA 1000 finals, winning my home tournament up in Canada last summer. Heading into Indian Wells, I truly believe the sky’s the limit!

Carlos Alcaraz. Carlos is, by far, the most exciting player in tennis right now. He is also the best shot maker and arguably has the best attitude in the history of tennis.

(I also have a wager with my friends that I can get invited to dinner or lunch with him and his crew at least one time this year—so picking him just might give me another opportunity at making that happen!)

Aryna Sabalenka. The world No. 1 played a great Australian Open but took a tough loss in the final to Elena Rybakina and hasn’t played since, skipping both Middle East tournaments in Doha and Dubai. I’m interested to see how she’s holding up emotionally as much as with her tennis.

Learner Tien. This young American made a meteoric rise into the Top 20 in his first full year on tour. How will he handle the occasion of playing in his de facto hometown tournament as a seed?

Those selections set the stage for a compelling fortnight in Indian Wells, where established stars and rising talents will test form and resilience on a big-court stage.