The BNP Paribas Open arrives as a season-defining moment, and five WTA players head to the desert needing form, confidence or a return to health.

Rank: 2
2025 IW Result: Semifinal
Iga Świątek has long relished Indian Wells and its conditions: she won the title there in 2022 and 2024. In previous winning years she arrived with a Doha title behind her; this year she helped Poland to a team title at United Cup but has played only two tournaments since, losing in the quarterfinals at the Australian Open and in Doha. She pulled out of Dubai to better prepare for IW. The slow hard courts suit her game, and an early loss could drop her to No. 3, behind Rybakina, in the rankings.

Rank: 4
2025 IW Result: 4th round
Coco Gauff will face intense home support in California after two months away. Her 2026 form offers cautious optimism: she made the Australian Open quarters and the Dubai semis, losing to Elina Svitolina both times. Service issues persist but have not derailed her season. Last year she did not hit her stride until clay; she has never gone past the semifinals at Indian Wells and lost to Belinda Bencic in the fourth round here a year ago. With Rybakina moving ahead in the rankings and Pegula closing in, a strong showing on slow hard courts would be timely.

Rank: 8
2025 IW Result: Champion
Mirra Andreeva moved from hunter to hunted after breaking through in 2025. At 17 she won her first 1000-level event in Dubai in February 2025 and reached the quarters there this year, which dropped her from No. 7 to No. 8. In March 2025 she followed Dubai with Indian Wells, beating Swiatek and Sabalenka back to back in three-set semifinal and final wins. She did not reach another final in 2025. She began 2026 with a title run in Adelaide. Now she must learn to defend and manage ranking points and expectations.

Rank: 20
2025 IW Result: 3rd round
In 2024 Navarro announced herself by upsetting Sabalenka to reach the quarterfinals. Now she is 4-7 on the year and came off a title defense in Merida that ended with a first-round loss. Zhang Shuai said she didn’t really “do anything special.” Navarro’s ground strokes that once found corners are finding net or flying long, and even the poker-faced South Carolinian, known to her family as “Ice”, is showing frustration. Navarro has won back-to-back matches this year just once.

Rank: 24
2025 IW Result: Quarterfinals
The 23-year-old Zheng is seeking form after elbow surgery kept her off the tour for the second half of 2025. This will be just her third event since Wimbledon last year.

Indian Wells traditionally accelerates the season, and for several men the desert will offer a clear gauge of where their 2026 campaigns are headed. Here are five players for whom a deep run would be particularly useful.

Jannik Sinner (Rank: 2) — 2025 IW: Did Not Play
Sinner’s history in the tournament is complicated. He tested positive for a banned substance after the 2024 edition, and was banned from the event in 2025. He has yet to reach the final at Indian Wells, losing to Carlos Alcaraz in the semifinals in both 2023 and 2024. Sinner has trailed Alcaraz slightly this year, falling in the Melbourne semifinals and Doha quarterfinals while Alcaraz captured both titles. A first title in the desert would be a timely statement.

Taylor Fritz (Rank: 7) — 2025 IW: 4th round
Fritz is 8-3 since the United Cup, reached the final in Dallas and had match points for the title there, and has moved up to No. 7 despite a shaky knee. Indian Wells is a home tournament for the SoCal native: he won it four years ago. At 28, Fritz has spent his 20s climbing into the Top 10 and into second weeks at majors; another strong showing in the desert would help him push beyond merely holding a top-10 place.

Daniil Medvedev (Rank: 11) — 2025 IW: Semifinal
Medvedev looked ready for a reboot in 2026 after a difficult prior 12 months. He hired a new coach and began 2026 strongly, winning Brisbane and compiling a 12-3 start to the season. He was upset by Learner Tien in the Australian Open fourth round and then lost early in Rotterdam and Doha; at the time of this piece he was in the semifinals in Dubai. Medvedev has made the Indian Wells final twice and reached the 2025 semifinals, meaning he will be defending points there. An early exit would stall his comeback.

Jakub Mensik (Rank: 13) — 2025 IW: 2nd round
Mensik’s crucial week is Miami, where he defends champion’s points. After his Miami title he failed to make another semifinal in 2025. In 2026 he has been inconsistent, though he won Auckland and reached the Doha semifinal after defeating Sinner. Still only 20 and standing 6’5, Mensik’s serve and youth suggest a deep Sunshine Double would accelerate his development.

Cerundolo (Rank: 19) — 2025 IW: Quarterfinal
Last spring Cerundolo looked poised to become a multi-surface threat. He used South American clay momentum to reach the Indian Wells and Miami quarterfinals, then made semifinals in Munich and Madrid and arrived at Roland Garros as a dark horse. He lost in the first round at Roland Garros and then at Wimbledon, and never regained form in 2025.

The 2026 BNP Paribas Open arrives with main-draw play beginning Wednesday, March 4. A team of analysts assessed the field and singled out several players who could use the Sunshine Swing as a springboard for the season ahead.

Coco Gauff: By her standards Coco has had an underwhelming start to the year, but she began to regain traction in Dubai where she reached the semifinals. The slower, wind-affected conditions at Indian Wells should suit her game and give her an opportunity to build momentum.

Iga Swiatek: Analysts view Swiatek as a serious threat in the desert. “I’ll take Swiatek to make a big run and potentially win it—especially if she plays a handful of night matches or matches in the wind.  I think she’s dangerous in those conditions.” That combination of form and favorable conditions makes her a logical pick to kick off 2026 with a deep run.

Frances Tiafoe: Frances’s start to 2026 was described as downright pedestrian. He has made coaching changes since parting with David Witt and Jordi Arconada at the end of last season and is now working with Dr. Mark Kovacs. The expectation is that a refreshed Tiafoe will be energized for the Sunshine Double and begin to put his season together.

Emma Navarro: Emma is a candidate to right the ship at a tournament where she reached her first WTA 1000 quarterfinal in 2024. She has struggled late in recent events, but her quality suggests more consistent results are possible. Returning to the United States and competing on familiar courts could provide a lift.

With Indian Wells set to test players in wind and night conditions, the early March event offers a clear chance for top names to set the tone for 2026.