1000 BNP Paribas Open BNP Paribas Open WTA
Sabalenka vs. Mboko: Match Preview, Start Time and Prediction
Mboko pushed Sabalenka in Melbourne and arrives at the BNP Paribas Open after a Doha final. Read on.
Start Time: TBD on Thursday, March 11 (check back for updates)
The rematch between Aryna Sabalenka and 19-year-old Victoria Mboko arrives with clear storyline: an established power player against an emerging counter-puncher who has learned quickly since their first meeting. In Melbourne, Sabalenka took control early, bullying Mboko through a 6-1 opening set, but the Canadian adjusted and pushed the second set to a tiebreak.
Mboko has carried that progress into the weeks that followed. In the two months since Australia she reached a 1000 final in Doha and climbed from No. 18 to No. 10. She says she can’t quite believe she’s in the Top 10 already, but she’s playing like she belongs. On Tuesday night she defended that form by dispatching Amanda Anisimova in two quick sets.
Sabalenka, meanwhile, showed sharp baseline command in her most recent match, overpowering Naomi Osaka in two impressive sets on Tuesday. Her ability to dictate from the backcourt and finish points remains the central challenge for Mboko.
Mboko’s strengths are clear: speed and counter-punching power that can trouble heavy hitters. Her willingness to adapt after the Australian Open and her run in Doha suggest she will not be intimidated. Still, Sabalenka’s combination of aggression and ball-striking typically forces opponents into errors and limits the time they have to impose their game.
This promises to be a competitive quarterfinal at the BNP Paribas Open, with Mboko likely to extend rallies and test Sabalenka’s patience. Ultimately, experience and the ability to close points favor the top seed. I’ll say it will take her another lesson from the WTA’s best before she’s ready to beat her. Winner: Sabalenka
All eight singles quarterfinals at the BNP Paribas Open take place Thursday, March 11.
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Alex Eala’s rise turns Toronto into a major draw
Eala’s WTA rise has filled seats in Toronto and set up her next test in Cincinnati.
Alex Eala’s profile has climbed sharply during the 2026 season, to the point that she has become one of the WTA Tour’s most in-demand attractions.
Her appeal has been visible in several corners of the calendar. She first captured attention at the Australian Open at the start of the year, then carried that momentum into the Middle East through the Abu Dhabi Open and the Qatar Open.
The next surge came during the North American hardcourt swing. The 21-year-old impressed crowds by winning the Washington Open title, before Toronto delivered another clear sign of her growing pull. The Canadian Open was heavily impacted by her presence, with evening sessions featuring Eala selling out well in advance.
A tournament director described the response as “just unprecedented.” That reaction reflected more than full stands. It also captured the way interest built steadily over time, beginning in February in Doha and continuing through the year until it reached its peak during the tournament week in Toronto.
“We’ve never seen anything like that in Toronto before. It was unexpected. We saw the momentum build from February in Doha, and over the past year. And it really culminated in the week of, which every match she played it sold out,” he continued.
“She was just so engaging with her fans and the community. It was really beautiful to see her so loyal to her fans. I think one of the uniquenesses about this event in particular this year was, in the past we saw tens of flags from various nations throughout.
“This year we saw hundreds and thousands of flags. Last night you saw the engagement of the fans with each other, which was great to see. In addition to that, you saw the fans staying until the end of the session for the whole tournament.”
The event’s organisers are now set to reassess their approach for next year after seeing how strongly Eala resonated with the crowd. Hale said the experience offered a clear lesson in connecting with fans, especially new ones, and in serving Toronto’s multicultural community more broadly.
Eala now moves on to the Cincinnati Open, where she will attempt to extend her strong run. She is scheduled to face Elena-Gabriela Ruse in the opening round of the Masters event.
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Eala advances in Cincinnati and is poised for a new career-high ranking
Eala’s Cincinnati win lifts her toward a new career-high ranking and sets up Anisimova next.
Alex Eala is heading toward another ranking breakthrough after opening her Cincinnati Open campaign with a win that sent her into the third round.
The Filipina was in control against world No 74 Elena-Gabriela Ruse in the second round, leading 6-1, 3-0 when the Romanian retired because of injury. After dropping her serve in the first game, Eala took the next nine games in sequence and broke Ruse five times in a row. She finished with 43 of the 62 points played in the match.
This is Eala’s first appearance at the WTA 1000 tournament in Cincinnati, where she entered as the 17th seed and received a first-round bye. She began the event at a career-high ranking of world No 20, following a run to the fourth round at the Canadian Open and her title at the Washington Open.
The 21-year-old’s current stretch has now reached 11 wins from her last 13 matches, a sequence that began when she advanced to the fourth round at Wimbledon.
Her second-round victory in Cincinnati earned 65 ranking points, lifting her total to 2,221. That moves her up three places to a projected career-best world No 17 in the Live WTA Rankings.
Next, Eala faces world No 10 Amanda Anisimova, the ninth seed in Cincinnati, in the third round at the Lindner Family Tennis Center in Mason, Ohio. It will be their first meeting. Anisimova, 24, is a two-time Grand Slam finalist.
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Sabalenka keeps WTA No. 1, but Kostyuk leads UTR after Canadian Open
Sabalenka stays WTA No. 1, but Marta Kostyuk moves to the top of the UTR women’s list.
Aryna Sabalenka remains the leader in the WTA Rankings after the Canadian Open, yet the Belarusian has slipped from the summit in another system that measures women’s tennis form from a different angle.
Sabalenka, a four-time Grand Slam champion, has held the WTA world No. 1 position for 95 straight weeks since October 2024. In total, she has now spent 103 weeks at the top. Even so, her Canadian Open run ended in the fourth round, and her WTA total stands at 8,670 points, leaving her 354 ahead of world No. 2 Elena Rybakina, the runner-up in Canada.
The focus now turns to the UTR rating system, which places more value on recent results and victories over stronger opponents than the standard 52-week WTA points race. UTR is open to players across all levels and rates everyone on the same scale from 1.00 to 16.50. It counts only matches from the last 12 months and uses a player’s most recent 30 matches, or fewer if necessary.
That approach has produced a new name at the top. Marta Kostyuk, the world No. 11 on the WTA Tour, has won 24 of her 27 matches since the start of the clay-court season. The 24-year-old Ukrainian now leads the UTR list with a rating of 13.08, edging Sabalenka, whose rating dropped to 13.07 after the Canadian Open.
Rybakina sits third on 13.05, followed by Coco Gauff at 12.98. Jessica Pegula, Elina Svitolina and Mirra Andreeva are tied on 12.94 in fifth, sixth and seventh place. Iga Swiatek, Linda Noskova and Naomi Osaka round out the top 10.
One notable position comes from world No. 20 Alex Eala, who is 23rd on the UTR list with a rating of 12.64 despite her strong recent form.
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