Defending champion Aryna Sabalenka is all but certain to headline the 2025 US Open seedings as the field approaches the final ranking cutoff. Thirty-two players will be seeded at the Grand Slam, with positions determined by the WTA Rankings on August 18. The Cincinnati Open is the last opportunity to earn points before that cutoff.

Sabalenka leads the Live Rankings by 3,400 points over Coco Gauff and is therefore assured of the top seed. Gauff and Iga Swiatek remain in direct contention for second seed. “Reigning French Open champion Gauff has the upper hand as the Pole will have to win the tournament to move ahead of the American in the WTA Rankings after the Cincy tournament.” Mirra Andreeva, Jessica Pegula, Madison Keys, Amanda Anisimova, Jasmine Paolini, Elena Rybakina and Emma Navarro complete the current top 10 in the Live Rankings, though all remain active in Ohio and changes are possible.

Injury withdrawals have altered the projected list. World No 7 Zheng Qinwen has withdrawn from the US Open with an elbow injury and No 12 Paula Badosa is out with a back injury. Their absences push players below them up the order and open two places for those currently outside the top 32.

Two players who have risen into near-certainty for a seed are Victoria Mboko and Naomi Osaka, the Canadian Open finalists. “Just a month ago, Mboko was not in the running to be seeded at the US Open as she was outside the top 80 in the rankings, but her fairytale title run at her home WTA 1000 event has resulted in a 61-place surge to No 24 while Osaka is one place behind her after jumping 24 places.” With Zheng and Badosa not playing, Mboko is set to be seeded 22nd and Osaka 23rd, although both are not competing in Cincinnati and the order could still shift.

The final seeding places are hotly contested. Mccartney Kessler (28), Dayana Yastremska (29), Leylah Fernandez (30), Anna Kalinskaya (31) and Emma Raducanu (32) currently occupy the last five projected spots. Fernandez is in particular danger after exiting Cincinnati, and Raducanu faces Sabalenka in the third round in Cincy; a defeat would make her vulnerable if those below pick up wins. There remains the possibility of further withdrawals from the top 30 before the draw is final.

1. Aryna Sabalenka
2. Coco Gauff
3. Iga Swiatek
4. Mirra Andreeva
5. Jessica Pegula
6. Madison Keys
7. Amanda Anisimova
8. Jasmine Paolini
9. Elena Rybakina
10. Emma Navarro
11. Elina Svitolina
12. Karolina Muchova
13. Ekaterina Alexandrova
14. Clara Tauson
15. Belinda Bencic
16. Daria Kasatkina
17. Ludmilla Samsonova
18. Beatriz Haddad Maia
19. Elise Mertens
20. Linda Noskova
21. Diana Shnaider
22. Victoria Mboko
23. Naomi Osaka
24. Sofia Kenin
25. Jeļena Ostapenko
26. Marta Kostyuk
27. Magdalena Frcch
28. Mccartney Kessler
29. Dayana Yastremska
30. Leylah Fernandez
31. Anna Kalinskaya
32. Emma Raducanu

Jimmy Connors offered a clear take on Novak Djokovic’s chances at the US Open while acknowledging questions about the champion’s preparation. Connors named Djokovic as his choice for the title at Flushing Meadows even as he outlined reasons for caution.

Djokovic will arrive in New York without a singles match since his straight-set loss to Jannik Sinner in the Wimbledon semi-finals. The 38-year-old has not spoken to address his withdrawals from the back-to-back Masters 1000 events in Toronto and Cincinnati. During the Wimbledon run, Djokovic appeared compromised after suffering an injury on match point of his quarter-final win over Flavio Cobolli.

Djokovic and Olga Danilovic have received a wildcard for the revamped US Open mixed doubles event, scheduled for August 19-20 in the week before the singles draw begins. He is chasing a record-extending 25th major and can tie Jimmy Connors, Pete Sampras and Roger Federer for the most US Open men’s titles in the Open Era with a victory in New York.

On his Advantage Connors podcast with his son Brett, Connors did not hide his doubts about Djokovic’s preparation. “I know that he got to the semis of Wimbledon, but his semi-final performance wasn’t up to his standard. So now he’s going to to into the US Open with no matches,” said the former world No 1.

Connors pointed to the likely path through the draw and the difficulty of back-to-back matches against top opponents. “Now he’s not in the seeding department where… he’s gonna have to win three tough matches in a row now: a quarter, and then a semi and a final. A semi against Alcaraz or Sinner. This is assuming the draw comes out the way you would expect it to.

“Alcaraz or Sinner back-to-back, one or the other. That’s a tough task, especially three out-of-five sets, especially if it’s hot in New York.” Despite those concerns, Connors remained with Djokovic as his pick: “I am thinking of a 10-1 shot (Djokovic),” the eight-time Grand Slam champion. “You can’t count him out. That’s the only thing that’s worrying me: I wish he would go and at least get… even go to Cincinnati and play two or three matches.

“That is the only thing that worries me, that he left Wimbledon [in] the semis, which was a pretty good result, but he didn’t play in that match like he wanted to and lost in three straight.

“Then to take two and a half months off… he’s got a family, going on vacation, getting away and enjoying himself. Listen, you never know.”

Ben Shelton captured the biggest title of his career at the Masters 1000 event in Toronto, completing a come-from-behind 6-7 (5), 6-4, 7-6 (3) victory over Karen Khachanov in the final on Thursday night. The 22-year-old American’s title run produced immediate consequences on the ATP list.

Shelton rises from No. 7 to No. 6 on the ATP rankings, passing former world No. 1 Novak Djokovic for a new career-high. It is the fourth consecutive week in which he has set a personal best; he has reached a new career-high every week in the four weeks since Wimbledon. “BEN SHELTON’S CASCADE OF CAREER-HIGHS:” appears as a concise reflection of that run.

The new ATP rankings are backdated to this past Monday, August 4th. The next update will come after Cincinnati on Monday, August 18th. Shelton made his Top 10 debut a few weeks before Wimbledon, at No. 10, after a semifinal showing on the grass of Stuttgart. With a deep run at the Cincinnati Masters 1000 event he could break into the Top 5.

Shelton is now 330 points behind No. 5 Jack Draper. He also has 40 more points dropping on the next rankings than Draper, and the Brit is also not competing in Cincinnati this year.

There was movement elsewhere in the rankings after Toronto. Karen Khachanov rises from No. 16 to No. 12 after reaching his second Masters 1000 final of his career. The 29-year-old, who won his first Masters 1000 title in Paris in 2018, reached a career-high of No. 8 the following year.

Alexei Popyrin made his Top 20 debut, rising from No. 26 to No. 19 after reaching the quarterfinals in Canada. The Australian was the defending champion at the event, winning it in Montreal a year ago.

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