Carlos Alcaraz could be on track to return during the American hard-court swing, yet the bigger issue may be whether he can immediately look like himself again after such a long break.

The Spaniard has been absent for five months since suffering an injury at the Barcelona Open in April. Even so, his name has appeared on the entry lists for both the Cincinnati Open and the US Open.

There are still signs that his preparation is not fully advanced. Reports indicate that Alcaraz is only doing light training on court, and he was also seen at the World Cup Final wearing a brace on his wrist.

If he does make it back in time for the final Grand Slam of the year in New York, Christina McHale believes the main uncertainty is not talent, but match readiness. Speaking on The Inside-In Tennis Podcast, the former World No 24 said: “Where’s his fitness level at too? Playing best-of-five in New York, where it’s really hot, having not played for so many months, not competed.

“Will we be surprised if all of a sudden he comes out playing great? No, because that’s what he’s capable of. But I think most likely he’ll have to work himself into the tournament.”

McHale knows the challenges of a similar issue first-hand after dealing with the same type of injury during the 2025 season. “Well, I actually had that TFCC (Triangular Fibrocartilage Complex) injury last year. Thankfully I did not need surgery but I had sprained it and it required so much more PT than I ever imagined,” she said.

“I’d never had many injuries before. So, I can imagine he had a surgery and like and it’s tough because it’s you, you know, you start to come back and then you might start compensating and then all of a sudden you start feeling a little bit something elsewhere or you’re so eager to get back on court that you maybe do too much. So, it’s such a fine line and a balance.”

For now, the Cincinnati Open appears to be the target return point, and any withdrawal from that event would be the clearest cause for concern.

The stakes are significant. Alcaraz is the defending champion there and is protecting 1000 ranking points, a haul that could matter in his bid to climb back toward the top two. He dropped to World No 3 after Alexander Zverev reached the Wimbledon final for the first time in his career.

Carlos Alcaraz has fallen to No. 3 in the ATP Rankings and is set to be seeded third at the US Open, a position that could put him in the path of top opposition earlier than he would prefer at a Grand Slam.

The seven-time major champion has already missed the Madrid Open, Italian Open, French Open, Queen’s Club Championship and Wimbledon because of injury, and he is also absent from the upcoming Canadian Open. His return now appears close, though, with the Spaniard named on the entry lists for both the Cincinnati Open and the US Open.

Before the setback, Alcaraz sat at No. 2 and was locked in a close fight for No. 1 with Jannik Sinner. Over the past three months, however, he has lost more than 5,000 ranking points, with the biggest losses coming at the French Open (2,000), Wimbledon (1,300) and Italian Open (1,000).

With Alexander Zverev’s French Open title changing the picture above him, the 23-year-old will return in Cincinnati from third place and faces a difficult task if he is to climb back to No. 2 before New York. Alcaraz is only 320 points behind Zverev, but he will also lose 1,000 points in Cincinnati as the defending champion.

Zverev has 400 points to defend at the Canadian Open and another 400 in Cincinnati, so Alcaraz must defend his title in Mason and hope the German exits early at both events.

At Flushing Meadows, Sinner is already secure as the top seed, while Zverev is likely to be seeded No. 2. That arrangement could leave Alcaraz facing Sinner in the semi-finals and Zverev in the final.

The recent history between Sinner and Alcaraz underlines how often they have been meeting late in events. Their last eight matches have all come in finals, and the last time they met before a final was at the 2024 French Open, when they played in the semi-finals.

Alcaraz could also be drawn against Novak Djokovic earlier than usual. The 24-time Grand Slam winner is currently seventh in the rankings, which means the two could meet in the quarter-finals at Flushing Meadows.

The No. 3 seed Iga Swiatek ended the Cincinnati Open with a 7-5, 6-4 victory over Jasmine Paolini, using a markedly improved serve to secure the title. Time after time Swiatek produced serves in the 110- to 115-m.p.h. range, approximately the 185 k.p.h. mark her coach Wim Fissette had envisioned when their partnership began last fall.

She hit eight aces and at least that many service winners, often at pivotal moments. Down 2-3 in the first set she produced two unreturnable serves to hold; at 6-5 she closed the set with three service winners and an ace. In the second set she fended off a break point at 4-3 with a service winner, held with an ace and ended the match with an ace out wide.

Swiatek acknowledged trade-offs in pursuit of power: she committed seven double faults and made 57 percent of her first serves, and she did not consider the night perfect. “I couldn’t even toss well,” she said with a laugh. “It was a love-hate relationship [with her serve] today.”

She described the process with Fissette plainly. “I’m always this kind of player who needs to see the proof,” she said. “When I started working with Wim, I didn’t believe that I can serve 185 [kilometers per hour] and 180 consistently. So I think he helped me with reaching this higher speed…I just kind of needed to believe it.”

Her season has shifted markedly: after failing to win during the clay swing she claimed Wimbledon and now Cincinnati, titles on grass and quick hard courts that she had once struggled to master. She credited the broader team and her mental work. “Maybe I wasn’t committing to my serve for some part of the season,” she said. “I was focusing on the right things,” she added. “Maybe not everything was perfect. Mentally I was there to just play the best tennis that was possible at that moment.”

“Thank you for forcing me to become a better player,” Swiatek said to Fissette afterward. With the title she moves from No. 3 to No. 2 in the rankings and seedings at the US Open, removing a potential semifinal meeting with No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka.