Analytics & Stats ATP US Open
Can Sinner and Alcaraz Renew Their US Open Rivalry for a Third Major Final?
This is a detailed look at whether Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz can renew their US Open rivalry.

Two contrasting styles and the same singular ambition have pushed Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz to the front of men’s tennis this season. One plays with expressive abandon; the other with methodical precision. Alcaraz is 22, Sinner 24. Both have risen so rapidly that the central question entering the US Open is simple: can they meet again for the title?
Sinner arrived in 2024 and 2025 riding an extraordinary run on hard courts. Discounting his retirement in Cincinnati, he is 65-3 on hard courts going back to 2024. By contrast, Alcaraz is the youngest man to have won a major on all three surfaces, and only Bjorn Borg and Rafael Nadal collected five Grand Slam titles at a younger age than Alcaraz. Sinner fell one point short of completing a non-calendar year Grand Slam (a “Sinner Slam”) when he lost Roland Garros to Alcaraz following Wimbledon.
Still, obstacles abound. In Cincinnati Sinner was forced to retire with an unspecified illness after trailing early in the final — a reminder that health can upend any expectation. Sinner also suffered an elbow tumble at Wimbledon and has worn a warming sleeve in subsequent matches, though he has said the sleeve was about feel: “I put a sleeve on because I liked the feeling of the sleeve,” he told the media. “It gives a little bit more impact with the ball [and greater stability].”
Alcaraz has displayed occasional lapses of focus. As commentator Jim Courier said on air, “Carlos isn’t Australian, but he does go on walkabouts.” Alcaraz himself recognised the danger after a comeback: “Playing someone like Andrey, when you lose focus on two or three points, it [can] cost you the set or almost the match.” He added, “I just stayed strong mentally and that’s what I’m most proud of.”
Analyst Lindsay Davenport offered this appraisal: “Nothing you can throw at Sinner rattles him.” The numbers underline that truth: over the past 52 weeks Alcaraz is 13-4 against Top 10 opponents, while Sinner’s consistency remains his defining trait. If health, heat and the peculiar pressures of the US summer do not intervene, another Sinner-Alcaraz final is far from out of reach.
Analytics & Stats ATP US Open
Djokovic’s path to a fifth US Open and a place with three all-time greats
Djokovic targets a fifth US Open crown to join Federer, Connors and Sampras with five titles in 2025

Novak Djokovic, 38, remains a defining presence at the 2025 US Open. The Serbian arrives in New York on the back of semi-final runs at the Australian Open, French Open and Wimbledon earlier in 2025, and progressed to a record 14th US Open semi-final after Tuesday’s quarter-final. He extended his head-to-head dominance over 2024 runner-up Taylor Fritz to 11 wins from 11 in that match.
Djokovic already sits on 24 Grand Slam singles titles and has a long list of major records, yet a fifth US Open crown would place him in a select group. Since 1968, three men have claimed five US Open titles in the Open Era: Roger Federer, Jimmy Connors and Pete Sampras. Connors won in 1974, 1976, 1978, 1982 and 1983. Sampras lifted his first US Open in 1990 and added titles in 1993, 1995, 1996 and 2002. Federer collected five consecutive trophies from 2004 to 2008 and remains the last man to successfully defend the title.
While Federer and Connors reached seven US Open finals between them, that particular finals record belongs to Djokovic, who has appeared in 10 finals in New York. He won the tournament in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2023, giving him four US Open titles and placing him joint-fourth on the all-time list alongside Rafael Nadal and John McEnroe.
Djokovic has also lost six US Open finals: to Federer in 2007, to Nadal in 2010, to Andy Murray in 2012, to Nadal again in 2013, to Stan Wawrinka in 2016 and to Daniil Medvedev in 2021. A victory in New York would have drawn him level with Federer, Sampras and Connors at five US Open titles.
Beyond the tournament-specific milestone, Djokovic’s broader aims remain prominent: a 25th major and the possibility of becoming the oldest men’s singles Grand Slam winner of the Open Era. Should he defeat Carlos Alcaraz in Friday’s semi-final and then lift the trophy, it would add another defining chapter to his career.
Analytics & Stats ATP US Open
Ferrero: US Open semi-final timing could be a decisive edge for Alcaraz
Ferrero says US Open semi-final timing could help Alcaraz; Djokovic carries injury concerns. Update

Juan Carlos Ferrero believes match timing at the US Open could tilt the semi-final between Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic. The pair meet in the last four in New York for a ninth career semi-final clash, with Djokovic leading their head-to-head 5-3 and holding a 3-0 record on hard courts.
Alcaraz arrives at the semi-final without dropping a set in the tournament and with an exceptional run of form, having won 35 of his last 36 matches, the only loss coming to world No 1 Jannik Sinner in the Wimbledon final. Ferrero, a former world No 1 and his coach since 2019, stresses that form alone does not make his pupil the favourite. “Carlos is playing spectacularly, with a lot of confidence, but I don’t dare say that he is a favourite,” he said. “Novak will give everything, it will be very tough.
“What happened in Australia was painful because of how everything happened, but the conditions will be different here.
“We played there at night and that favored him a little, with a lower ball bounce.
“The ball was flatter and that suited him better.
“Here, I think that if we play during the day, it will be better for us.”
Ferrero has also highlighted Alcaraz’s mental progress in New York. “We have always known that he was very good tennis-wise, but on a mental level I am seeing him better than ever,” the Spaniard stated. “In this tournament he is showing that consistency of not having ups and downs and reaching the potential that we saw he could have.
“He is still very young, despite the experience he has. It is in the process of maturing and improving. Little by little he was giving details of improving, but in this tournament is where he is being most noticed.
“He barely makes five, six or seven errors per set. That is the difference compared to before.”
Djokovic, the 24-time Grand Slam champion, has battled physical issues at the event, taking medical time-outs for shoulder, foot and back concerns. After his quarter-final win over Taylor Fritz he admitted concerns about freshness. “Good thing about the schedule is now that I have two days without a match, so that helps a lot,” he said.
“So I don’t feel very fresh at the moment. But hopefully in two days will be different.
“It’s not going to get easier, I tell you that. But look, as I said, I’m going to try to take one day at a time, really take care of my body, try to relax and recover.
“The next couple of days is really key for me to really get my body in shape and ready to battle five sets if it’s needed.
“So I just would really love that, would love to be fit enough to play and to play, you know, potentially five sets with Carlos. And I know that my best tennis is going to be required, but I rise to the occasion.
“Normally, I like to play the big matches on a big stage. It’s just that I’m not really sure how the body is going to feel in the next few days. But, you know, I’m going to do my very best with my team to be fit for that.
“There’s going to be a lot of running involved, that’s for sure. I mean, there’s not going to be short points.”
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How Amanda Anisimova can climb to a career-high at the 2025 US Open
Anisimova can rise to a career-high No 6 or even crack the top five at the 2025 US Open. by Monday.

Amanda Anisimova arrives in New York having produced the best stretch of her career so far in 2025. The 24-year-old American reached her first Grand Slam final at Wimbledon earlier this summer, beating world No 1 Aryna Sabalenka in the semi-final, and collected her first WTA 1000 title at the Qatar Open in February.
Anisimova is into the US Open quarter-final for the first time and faces Iga Swiatek, a rematch that comes weeks after the American failed to win a single game versus the Pole at the All England Club. Beyond the immediate task of getting past a six-time major champion, this fortnight presents a major ranking opportunity.
This season Anisimova has climbed steadily. After returning to the tour in 2024 she broke into the top 20 following her victory over Jelena Ostapenko in the Doha final. A fourth-round showing at Roland Garros moved her into the top 15 and her run to a maiden major final at Wimbledon pushed her into the top 10. She reached a career-high of world No 7 after Wimbledon but entered the US Open at No 9.
Thanks to results in New York, she is guaranteed to be ranked at least seventh in the world after the tournament. Current world No 7 Zheng Qinwen is absent due to injury, while No 8 Jasmine Paolini was beaten in round three, opening the door for movement in the top ten.
A direct WTA Live Rankings battle with compatriot and world No 4 Jessica Pegula is unfolding. Pegula, who has 1,300 ranking points to defend as the 2024 runner-up, sits provisionally at world No 6 on 4,383 points, with Anisimova on 4,289. A victory over Swiatek would move Anisimova to 4,639 points and ahead of Pegula and Madison Keys, who holds 4,579. With Keys out in the first round, that would guarantee Anisimova a minimum ranking of world No 6 next Monday.
A further run to the final would lift her to 5,159 points, overtaking Mirra Andreeva on 4,793 and delivering a first top-five ranking. Only Pegula, by winning the title and hypothetically beating her in the final, could prevent that outcome.
It will not be easy to beat Swiatek, but Anisimova’s season suggests the possibility of another breakthrough in New York.
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