Aryna Sabalenka has spent the past year and more at the summit of the women’s game, but her hold on the top spot is looking less secure after a difficult run of results.

The Belarusian has not added a title since finishing the ‘Sunshine Double’ in March, when she followed her Indian Wells triumph with another major win in Miami. At that stage, Sabalenka looked firmly in control of women’s tennis. Since then, though, she has absorbed several unexpected defeats, including heavy losses at the French Open and Wimbledon.

Her world No 1 ranking will again be tested when she defends her US Open crown later this month. A closer look at the live WTA Race shows that her margin is now vulnerable as the season moves toward its final major.

The WTA Race tracks form across the calendar year, and Sabalenka’s early exit at the WTA 1000 event in Toronto has allowed Elena Rybakina to move into first place on that list. Rybakina and Iga Swiatek both found form in Toronto and advanced to the final, yet neither has fully closed the gap in the broader rankings battle.

Sabalenka has still been world No 1 for an impressive 96 consecutive weeks, dating back to October 2024, and her total at the top now stands at 104 weeks overall. She summed up the challenge of staying there with a frank assessment of the pressure that comes with the position.

“You have the target on your back. Everyone wants to beat you,” said Sabalenka.

“But I feel like it’s the same if you’re No 1, No 2, No 10. It doesn’t really matter what the ranking is anyway; when you go out there on the court, everyone wants to beat you.

“It’s just extra motivation for others to go out there and be fearless and play their best tennis. You have to deal with players performing their best. You have to deal with that and get the job done.”

Elsewhere, the 2026 ranking points list offers a sharper view of current form, and Alex Eala’s rise stands out. She is up to No 20 in the official rankings after winning her first WTA Tour title in Washington earlier this month, while the live table places her at No 15.

Eala has also collected wins over Rybakina, Jessica Pegula and several top-10 players in recent months. If that momentum continues through the Cincinnati Open and the US Open, a top-10 finish at the end of the season may be within reach.

Aryna Sabalenka’s 2026 season has already delivered both standout success and a series of results that have complicated the picture around her status heading toward the US Open.

She opened strongly by capturing the Brisbane International title and then advancing to the Australian Open final. From there, she added Indian Wells and the Miami Open, a run that made her only the fifth woman in tennis history to complete the Sunshine Double.

Since that peak, though, the results have become less convincing. Sabalenka has not returned to a final after Miami, and she has exited before the quarter-final stage at the Italian Open, Wimbledon, and most recently the Canadian Open. That leaves her approaching the US Open without the clear favourite tag, even as she has won the tournament in the last two seasons.

Andy Roddick believes Cincinnati could change that quickly. Speaking on Served, he said, “The women’s side going into the US Open it’s hard to actually point to someone and say they’re the favourite. Yeah. And it’s if you do somehow get to a favorite it’s almost by subtraction. Do you know what I’m saying?

“Like Rybakina has looked pretty average. Jess [Pegula] is proven, but she took an early loss. You know, Iga [Swiatek] has looked better. A win against Kostyuk that I thought was a big one. Coco’s [Gauff] reliable at this point. Is she the favorite going into the US Open?

“It is wide open. Yeah. On the women’s side, unless someone catches a heater in Cincinnati, then, you know, obviously if Sabalenka goes and wins there, I think she instantly re-establishes herself as the favorite.

“She doesn’t need as much work to get back to favorite status as someone else, right? if she goes and wins something, you’re like, “Okay, great. We’re back.”

Sabalenka already has Cincinnati history on her side. She won the event in 2024 and followed that by taking the US Open title. Even so, the field around her is not standing still.

Swiatek is beginning to find rhythm under new coach Francisco Roig, while Eala has been the strongest women’s player since Wimbledon. Elina Svitolina, Belinda Bencic, and Gauff have also shown good form at the Canadian Open.

Rumours around Jannik Sinner’s fitness proved true when the world No 1 withdrew from the Cincinnati Masters because of a knee injury, a development that immediately sharpens the focus on Novak Djokovic’s path toward another major title.

Sinner’s exit comes only weeks after Djokovic was beaten by the Italian in the Wimbledon semi-finals. That result followed Djokovic’s victory over Sinner in the Australian Open final earlier in 2026, a reminder of how quickly the balance at the top of men’s tennis can change. After Wimbledon, many felt Djokovic’s chance to win a 25th Grand Slam title had slipped away. Now, with the US Open approaching at the end of the month, the picture looks different again.

Carlos Alcaraz is also carrying uncertainty into New York after injuring his wrist at the Barcelona Open in April and not yet returning to competitive action. Sinner, meanwhile, said in a statement on the ATP website:

“After consulting with my doctors and my team, I have to announce that I need to withdraw from the Masters 1000 tournament in Cincinnati,” he said in a statement posted on the ATP website.

“My right knee has been bothering me and even though we have been working hard with my medical team, I have to accept that I’m not ready to compete yet.”

The Italian did not suggest in that statement that his US Open place is in danger, but doubts will remain if he reaches Flushing Meadows without full confidence in his knee over seven matches. Alcaraz is facing his own decision, and if either man is not at full strength, Djokovic may see the opening he has been waiting for.

At 39, Djokovic has shown repeatedly that he can still challenge anyone outside Sinner and Alcaraz at the biggest events. His confirmation that he will play Cincinnati for the first time since 2023 also suggests his shoulder issue is under control. He is level with Margaret Court on 24 Grand Slam titles and has not won a major since the 2023 US Open.