Seventeen years after her landmark BNP Paribas Open victory, Vera Zvonareva has returned to the tour following an 18-month absence and two shoulder surgeries. The former world No. 2, now 41, has shown competitive form across singles and doubles during a strong Middle East swing, including a Doha win over Peyton Stearns and an Australian Open doubles semifinal late last season.

Zvonareva’s 2009 BNP Paribas Open title — won in brutal windy conditions against Ana Ivanovic — remains a career highlight. She reached back-to-back Grand Slam finals at Wimbledon and the US Open in 2010 and later added two major doubles titles with a maternity break between those achievements.

Recalling her recent singles victory, she said, “Look, I didn’t start the match well, but I felt like she was playing a different game from my previous opponents. But I tried my best and knew I could fight through this match, that I could challenge her more. In the end, it worked out my way. I’ve been playing many years on tour and I know that, as long as I’m trying my best on the court, I can always give myself a chance.” That win marked her first main-draw WTA singles victory since October 2023 at the Qatar TotalEnergies Open.

On balancing disciplines and motivation, she was clear: “You know, I played so many matches in my career, so I don’t really think about it in that way, or in any of those ways. I’ve been putting a lot of efforts into doubles in the past few years, so especially with the success of my doubles before I took a break, I’d put singles on the side.

Now I’ve come back and I still want to play doubles because I enjoy it, but whenever I get a chance, I want to play singles, as well. I’m enjoying the moment of playing at a big tournament. That’s always nice.”

She described a cautious return after surgery: “I had a second shoulder surgery and to be honest, I wasn’t in a rush to come back. I took my time, I enjoyed spending time with family. As soon as I felt like I physically felt ok, I decided to try and see how it goes.” Zvonareva also noted the practical challenges of travel with a nine-year-old daughter and the preference to manage family life while competing. On doubles plans she added, “At the moment, nothing is set. We’ll see how it goes. I’m taking everything one day at a time.”

The 2026 BNP Paribas Open arrives with main-draw action beginning Wednesday, March 4, and American men figure prominently in the conversation at Tennis Paradise. Eugenie Bouchard singles out a compact group of U.S. contenders and places Ben Shelton at the center of expectations.

Ben Shelton. His game has shown clear evolution and he often lifts his level at the biggest events. With Indian Wells regarded as the premier U.S. tournament after the US Open, the setting feels appropriate for Shelton, who already won a first Masters 1000 title in Canada last summer.

Tommy Paul. After a 2025 season hampered by injury, Paul appears to have recovered and has produced a strong start to 2026. His Delray Beach win over Taylor Fritz—the only American man to win Indian Wells since Andre Agassi in 2001—was certainly a statement about his readiness to return to the Top 10 and beyond. Back to full health in Australia, he played great to reach the second week and gave Carlos Alcaraz all he could handle over three close sets in the fourth round. If he stays healthy and consistent, Paul could be the most dangerous American in the draw.

Taylor Fritz. Local support and familiarity with the event add weight to his prospects. “Total transparency: how can i go against my man in his hometown tournament? A tournament he’s the only one of his countrymen to have won before, no less.” That hometown element and previous success at the event create a compelling backdrop for his campaign.

Indian Wells will demand serve, return and stamina across large courts and long days. Between Shelton’s upward trajectory, Paul’s return to form and Fritz’s home-court narrative, the U.S. contingent arrives with several credible candidates to produce the best American result as the Sunshine Swing begins.

The 2026 BNP Paribas Open arrives with Carlos Alcaraz the focal point. Main-draw play begins Wednesday, March 4, and a group of analysts assessed who is most likely to emerge victorious as the Sunshine Swing gets under way. Their consensus: Alcaraz is the clear favorite.

Alcaraz has not lost a match in 2026, sitting at 12-0 after two tournaments, and he appears to be managing his schedule carefully so he stays fresh for Indian Wells. Success in Melbourne and Doha underpins his momentum. Analysts also pointed to his split with coach Juan Carlos Ferrero and said the Spaniard has grown stronger since that change, widening the margin between himself and No. 2 Jannik Sinner. The analysts noted that Sinner has zero points to defend over the next two months, a factor that matters for rankings but not for the immediate expectations at BNP Paribas Open.

On paper, Elena Rybakina is one of the few players singled out as a genuine challenger. She is “absolutely playing great tennis,” the analysts said, but the women’s draw is deeper overall, which complicates forecasting a repeat of Alcaraz’s dominance on the men’s side.

Beyond raw form, surface and conditions were raised as decisive elements. The court conditions at Indian Wells were described as grittier and tougher to finish points on, favoring players with superior movement and varied offense. Analysts felt those traits play into Alcaraz’s strengths and make him difficult to beat in these circumstances.

Predictions ranged in tone but returned to the same conclusion: Alcaraz is the frontrunner to continue his unbeaten run through Indian Wells, while Rybakina remains a live candidate on the women’s side. With the BNP Paribas Open set to begin, the discussion will shift from projection to performance once play starts on March 4.