Two dominant No. 1s arrive in form and the Madrid draw has opened a month of big clay tests. With Carlos Alcaraz sidelined by a wrist issue and Novak Djokovic carrying a shoulder problem, the ATP draw is missing two usual heavyweights. That elevates seeds such as Alexander Zverev, Felix Auger Aliassime, and Ben Shelton. Combined, Sinner has won his last 22 meetings with those three opponents. The last time he lost to any of them was 2023.

In many ways this should suit Jannik Sinner. His clay season has gained momentum. He is on a 17-match winning run, he has won the last four Masters 1000 events dating to late 2025, and he captured his first significant clay title in Monte Carlo. Yet Madrid has been awkward for him. He has reached the quarterfinals only once and he missed last season at the Caja Magica because of a doping suspension. A projected path to the semifinals reads: Qualifier, Gabriel Diallo, Tommy Paul, Alex de Minaur. He is a combined 18-1 against Diallo, Paul, and De Minaur.

On the WTA side Aryna Sabalenka arrives off a rare Sunshine Double. With victories over Elena Rybakina in the Indian Wells final and Coco Gauff in the Miami final she reinforced her status as a clear No. 1 and a player who can close title matches. Madrid is one of her best venues. She is a three-time champion there, having beaten Iga Swiatek in the 2023 final and Coco Gauff last year. Her projected route to the semis includes Stearns or Boisson, Cristian, Naomi Osaka, and then Paolini or Belinda Bencic. Sabalenka beat Osaka in Indian Wells.

Elena Rybakina’s Stuttgart title this week was a statement. She beat Mirra Andreeva and Karolina Muchova en route and sits atop the 2026 Race to Riyadh. Yet Madrid has not yielded many deep runs for her; she is 8-5 here with one semifinal in five attempts. Her quarter contains several threats including Zheng Qinwen, Amanda Anisimova, Madison Keys, Jelena Ostapenko, Maria Sakkari, and Elise Mertens.

Young ATP names to watch include Rafael Jodar, Alexander Blockx, and Martin Landaluce. Arthur Fils, fresh from a 500-level title in Barcelona and a return from a back injury, lands in Sinner’s half in a quarter with Shelton and Lorenzo Musetti.

Notable projected results from the draft: Semifinals: Sinner d. Fils; Zverev d. Auger Aliassime. Final: Sinner d. Zverev. Semifinals: Sabalenka d. Andreeva; Rybakina d. Pegula.

Mutua Madrid Open tournament director Feliciano Lopez has warned that Carlos Alcaraz’s wrist problem could threaten the Spaniard’s clay-court run as the season moves toward Rome and Roland Garros.

Lopez, a former player who spoke to Radioestadio Noche, described the injury as “a typical tennis injury” and compared it to his own experience. “I’ve had that injury… I was out for two months, more or less,” Lopez said on Monday. “I’m not sure the extent of his injury. I was out for two months, but when I had to stop I could barely hold a racquet in my hand. He was able to finish the match and have a few days (to rest).”

The problem forced Alcaraz to withdraw from Barcelona after one match and to skip his home Masters 1000 event in Madrid. It arrives after an uneven clay swing that included a run to the Monte Carlo final, where he lost to Jannik Sinner and Sinner regained the world No. 1 ranking. In Barcelona Alcaraz won his opening match but played with heavy strapping on his wrist before ultimately withdrawing.

Lopez said he had not been in direct contact with Alcaraz or the player’s medical staff, but he underlined the timing and the ranking stakes. “I wish him the best and I hope he recovers as soon as possible, because this is an important season for him,” Lopez added. “It’s true that Carlos can win on any court, but there’s Madrid, another Masters 1000 in Rome, and Roland Garros, where he’s the defending champion. So there are 4,000 points at stake in three very prestigious tournaments.

“So Madrid is out, Rome seems almost impossible to me. Hopefully he will be fit for Roland Garros.”

Concern grew after new photos showed Alcaraz wearing a rigid splint on his wrist and forearm. The images, shared on social media by Los Chopos, show straps fixing the hand and wrist in place, a device typically used for fractures, severe sprains, ligament injuries or post-surgical immobilization. He was also seen wearing a wrist brace during a recent outing in Albacete.

Jack Draper will miss the upcoming ATP Masters events in Madrid and Rome after an aggravated tendon in his right knee forced him to retire late in the third set of his Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell match with Tomas Martin Etcheverry. The left-hander has been limited to four tournaments this season after recovering from a lengthy left-arm injury, and this latest setback compounds an already interrupted campaign.

“It’s frustrating for sure, but I am thankful it isn’t anything more serious,” he said in a statement reported by British press. “Recovery is going well and I feel good about my chances of being fit for Roland Garros. I am looking forward to building momentum from there.”

Draper’s 2025 clay-court form is central to the stakes here. He was a surprise finalist at the Mutua Madrid Open and reached the quarterfinals at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia. He later advanced to the fourth round of the French Open for the first time, only to have momentum interrupted by a bone bruise in his left arm that stalled his climb toward the ATP’s Top 4.

Those two ATP Masters 1000 events that precede the season’s second major still account for nearly 53 percent of Draper’s current point total. With the Madrid and Rome results set to drop off the rankings, the world No. 28 is projected to fall outside the Top 70 ahead of his bid to get fit for Paris.

The immediate priority for Draper is recovery and timing his return for Roland Garros. He has signaled confidence in his rehabilitation, but the loss of points from the Masters series will produce a rapid ranking decline unless he can replicate past performances on the clay leading into the Grand Slam.